Category Archives: Jones et al

IPCC, Jones et al, News and Views, Surface Record

Is the Great Barrier Reef threatened by global warming ?

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On the night of the Australian Federal Election 24 November 2007 Treasurer Elect Wayne Swan was heard to say on Channel 9 TV that the swing to the ALP in electorates along the Queensland coast was due in part to “global warming threatening the Great Barrier Reef (GBR)”.
Willis Is temperatre trend
Here is the temperature trend for Willis Island, site of a weather station in the Coral Sea just over 400 kms easterly from Cairns. The Liberal Senator Helen Coonan tried bravely to swim against the tide and hinted at complex scientific issues that had to be understood but her effort was swept aside.

Does anyone seriously think the GBR could be “threatened by global warming”, when the Willis island data shows no trend since WWII ?
How do such fairy stories pass as fact and become part of national mass belief ?

IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

True temperature trends for Puerto Rico hidden in fragmented data

2 Comments

Last year I posted “San Juan Puerto Rico, EXACTLY how UHI warming can get into global gridded T trends” . I should have added this Fig 4 from Duchon’s 86 paper that I refer to.

There is IPCC AGW shouting out from the UHI affected San Juan trend, incorporated by Jones et al and the IPCC of course.
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The trends below in Fig 4, from smaller places show little warming. Data are of poorer quality in a technical sense, but that is where the truth is.

IPCC, Jones et al, News and Views, Surface Record

Another solid win at ClimateAudit.org

61 Comments

Steve McIntyre over at Climate Audit has had his hard work pay off with a discovery that the USA temperature data of Dr James Hansen of NASA GISS has concealed an error in recent years. This I understand affects the ranking of which is the hottest year in USA thermometer history. NASA had claimed 1998 as the hottest year for USA but I understand that after this error is allowed for, 1934 is still the hottest year.

It is a shame that the Climate Audit site is down as I write but they will be back again pretty soon I am sure.
I thought I would just quickly illustrate that there is little agreement bewteen the big climate groups about the ranking of 1934 and 1998. Using data from the KNMI ClimateExplorer.nl

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We see that the Hadley Centre and Jones both have 1998 well below 1934. Jones CRUT2 stops in 2005 but the Hadley Centre CRUT3 has 2006 (1.08689) almost as warm as 1934 (1.09514).

The GHCN based CAMS has 2006 relatively lower than the UK based groups and the Spencer and Christy satellite data from the lower troposphere sees 1999 higher than 1998 and 2006 not notably warm as the Hadley Centre finds but the satellite data obviously includes areas of ocean while all the other series are land only.

IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

1996 paper finds UHI bias in Jones et al IPCC South African temperature trends

8 Comments

This paper by Dr Robert Balling Jr and myself examines a series of rural and small town South African temperature data and compared 30 year trends with available Jones 1994 grid box trends.
Rural vs IPCC T trends
We found clear evidence that warming trends were much higher in the Jones data which of course includes many large urban centres. The trend of our 19 station series from non-urban sites is shown red in this extract from our Fig 2.
Continue reading 1996 paper finds UHI bias in Jones et al IPCC South African temperature trends →

Atmospheric science, IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Review comments on papers by the “great and the good”

5 Comments

A catch-all post for comments on my various reviews on significant pro IPCC climate papers.

Dr Rolf Philipona has kindly replied to my comments on his 2005 paper. I intend to present more data for various parameters in the weeks ahead.

Just for now though I want to restate that the Greenhouse Effect has to act in the lower atmosphere and then some of that heat is re-radiated to the surface. See basic descriptions on this NOAA site.

Hence my comment that I feel it is odd to ignore lower troposphere trends, because that is where AGW has first to take place.

IPCC Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is driven by increases in trace gases carbon dioxide, methane etc plus contentious postulated positive feedbacks from water vapour which as many authorities state is by far the most abundant greenhouse gas.

To wrap up for now, just a few very general points. Readers who follow weather forecasts and associated satellite imagery do not need me to point out that the lower atmosphere is characterized by constant large scale movement, lateral and vertical and circulation of air masses on hemispheric scales. Dr Philipona has alluded to looking to understand European warming to some extent outside the influence of the NAO and other people may comment on that.

Then there are issues of truly colossal scale heat transport such as the ever present Gulfstream which prevents the European climate from being significantly more frigid.

I have trouble imagining that Dr Philipona’s “line to the sky” radiation measurements from his Alpine site, however beautifully expressed in mathematics, can explain European warming in the face of these other confounding weather and climate factors.

IPCC, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Daily temperature range (DTR), max minus min, some ramblings

2 Comments

Philip B commented on “Climate predictions “right only half the time””

Warwick you wrote:

Since the nighttime temperatures are rising three times as fast as the daytime temperatures (Karl et al., 1993), it implies a non-climatic signal in the nighttime data equal to about one half of the total warming. It implies the reported global warming of 0.6 C in the twentieth century should be reduced to about 0.3 C.

Have you seen the analyses of Australia temperature data at Gust Of Hot Air?

It shows that rising minimum temperatures are giving a false impression of rising nighttime temperatures, which are rising much less than the minimum, in a number cases there is no rise at all even though the minimum is rising.

It is hard to avoid the conclusion that rising minimum temperatures reflect increased daytime warming and not increasing nighttime temperatures. As well as that increasing minimum and maximum temperatures are showing more heat gain to the system than there is.

After replying, I thought we needed a new thread

You had me searching for that quote Philip. It is on a page written by Dr Doug Hoyt, just above his references.

I agree with his thrust there as I have thought for years now that IPCC supportive scientists have attributed DTR closure to a greenhouse signal when in fact it is exactly a UHI signal – which they always manage to either ignore, trivialise or minimise in some way.
Continue reading Daily temperature range (DTR), max minus min, some ramblings →

Jones et al, News and Views, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Weather station urban heating realities

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Anthony Watts of northern California has just posted some very informative photographs of weather recording stations in his region north of San Francisco showing the temperature sensors placed near local heat sources. (ClimateAudit has a new post too introducing Anthony’s work.)

In 2001 I put up a page on what the various temperature data told for the Los Angeles grid cell.

More recently a paper in 2005 found that both the LA grid cell (30-35N, 115-120W) and San Francisco grid cell (35-40N, 120-125W) where Anthony’s stations locate, both have greatly varying trends 1976-2003 according to whether you believe Jones et al/CRU data or the GHCN data. See my post Is this 2005 paper by leading IPCC climate scientists, deceptive ? which links to my new map showing that in 57% of global grid boxes, CRU and GHCN vary by more than 1 degree per century.
Continue reading Weather station urban heating realities →

IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Disparity in tropical T datsets, 20 North to 20 South

1 Comment

A reader has emailed to say,

“Virtually all GCMs result in the temperature of the troposphere at the
tropics increasing at about 1.3x that of the increase in the surface temperature. But all observations show that troposphere temp in the tropics is increasing at 1/2 to 1/3 that rate. Isn’t that proof that the greenhouse effect can not be causing an increase in surface temperature? How can something gaining less heat(trop.), heat something gaining more heat(surface)?

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The graphic below shows the differences between MSU and the Hadley Centre and GHCN/CAMS data.
T trends in the tropics

Atmospheric science, IPCC, News and Views, Solar, Surface Record

The Past and Future of Climate by David Archibald

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Link to 400 kb pdf file of David’s provocative and original updated (May 2007) paper which says we are coming into a weaker solar cycle and that a cooler climate is likely in decades ahead. David also explains that the Greenhouse effect due to carbon dioxide is miniscule, as does the 1998 paper by Sherwood Idso.

See, How MINISCULE is the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect ? an html version of a 1998 paper by Sherwood B Idso in Vol 10: 69-82 of Climate Research, “CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic’s view of potential climate”.

See also Jack Barrett’s paper: Greenhouse molecules, their spectra and function in the atmosphere