Comparing new IPCC global map of 1901-2012 temperature trends – with GISS maps for same period

A reader has drawn my attention to this map from page 27/36 IPCC WGI AR5 SPM-1 27 Sep 2013 – I am not sure what dataset is used (probably HadCRUT) – have not found the Technical Summary Supplementary Material yet. Have to say I was not aware such a large area of South America was warming as shown.

Interesting to compare with the GISS maps for the same period – fascinating how the different SST groups treat the Pacific Ocean – but the science is settled of course. This first map uses SST from the GISS combination of Hadley & Reynolds.

The second GISS map uses the NOAA ERSST data.

Error reporting September rain in Perth

This Yahoo news item 23 Sep 2013 – Strong winds bring down trees and powerlines in Perth and South West – says at the end – [The Bureau of Meteorology says the front will hit early this evening and last most of the night.
The Perth metropolitan area has recorded its wettest September for more than 90 years.
So far this month Perth has recorded 129 millimetres of rain – making it the wettest September since 1923.]
There is a major error in those last two sentences and I find it amazing that such a simple issue as rainfall can get so garbled – particularly in the Perth media. Many 10 year old children with a www connection and a copy of Excel could provide Yahoo with relevant basic rainfall statistics.
Here is a list of the wettest Septembers for Perth – both Perth Metro (1993-current) and Perth Regional Office (1876-1992). Chris Gillham has information about BoM Perth weather stations.

The ridiculous statements on Yahoo completely ignore the fact that in September 1973 Perth had 146mm rain – so that is the first “record” hurdle that 2013 has to jump.
Then in 1971 September saw 183.8mm rain and it will take truly exceptional rain for the rest of this month to top that.
So where does Yahoo get their 90 years from ??
I notice that on 19 Sep PerthNow had a factual article – Perth on track for wettest September in 40 years.
So it is puzzling that a few days later Yahoo come up with their nonsense.
It is also worth noting that in my reading for this article I never saw Perth Hills rain referred to – yet that has such economic importance for Perth water supply. Of course Perth Hills rain is much higher than Perth rain. Somebody has the Perth media well trained.

Update 39 years of Perth dam catchment rain index 1975-2013

Will update the chart from time to time till end October. Blue line is a 5 year average – the average of all 39 years is 909mm.

There are several links to earlier relevant information in this May 2013 article – Ongoing decline in efficiency of Perth Dam catchments – reply from WA Minister
Prof Tim Flannery in Jun 2004 saying “Perth will die”
2002 article from The West Australian discussing catchment management

Geodynamics Ltd – persistent Australian geothermal energy explorer – a quick history

In view of Professor Tim Flannery’s services being no longer required by the new Federal Govt – I was curious to have a look at the history of Geodynamics Ltd GDY – a green energy company that the good Prof was invested in.
GDY floated in late 2002 with a market capitalisation of under $20 million – the share price reached a peak of about $2.10 in late 2007 when there were 190 million shares issued – making for a peak market capitalisation of ~$400 million. It has been downhill from there and these days with shares at 10c the market capitalisation has melted away today to ~$42 million.
GDY has raised $220 million from shareholders over the 11 years – and also $107 million in Govt grants.
This year GDY has commissioned a demonstration 1MW generating plant near Innamincka. I see last month they told the ASX of an impairment of $88.8 million in their books re Cooper Basin assets.
Clearly it is a tough game at the cutting edge of developing a new “clean green energy source” at a depth of +3km under the Cooper Basin.
To see extracts of headlines that caught my eye – from lists of GDY ASX announcements over the 11 years. Continue reading Geodynamics Ltd – persistent Australian geothermal energy explorer – a quick history

BoM claims Australia has had warmest 12 month period – not supported by some NASA and NOAA temperature data September 2012 to August 2013

Ken Stewart and Jo Nova have reported on the BoM claim. BoM mean T data for the 12 months September 2012 to August 2013 was the warmest on record for their dataset. You can not make a 12 month average of your choice – I downloaded all monthly anomaly timeseries and built a full timeseries of monthly anomalies from 1910-2013.
The only “international” surface temperature data I can find updated through August is GHCN CAMS from KNMI ClimateExplorer. Then we also have the NASA lower troposphere satellite data from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) commented on by Ken and Jo. It is clear from the graphic that the BoM claim is not robust.

As the graphic shows GHCN CAMS was warmer in the 12 months Feb 2005 – Jan 2006. UAH satellites were warmer for four 12 month periods between May 2009 – July 2010 and also from December 1997 – November 1998. Of course the lower troposphere data is measuring a layer of atmosphere from 1 to 8kms high – not the same as the surface weather stations. However I like the idea that the 53 million cubic km of Australian lower troposphere is pinged impartially by the microwave sounders maybe 7,000 times each month. More significant than trends from the BoM urban heat island affected land series.
Over the decades the 12 month average “Australian mean temperature” oscillates in a cyclic fashion between warm and cool anomalies. The BoM opportunistically feeds media headlines when times are warm but is silent on the issue when times are cool.

Wall Street Journal article – A Reprieve From Climate Doom – no reason not to disband the useless and harmful IPCC

A Reprieve From Climate Doom – forthcoming report points lowers estimates on global warming – Sept 13, 2013 in the Wall Street Journal by Matt Ridley
Climate sceptics should stand firm and not let the IPCC get away with weasel words back-peddling from years of failed predictions and poor science. Multi-Billions of dollars worth of harm has been and is being done to western economies in the guise of saving the planet.
Australia should cease all cooperation with the IPCC and no Govt funded scientist or organization should participate.
We should make our views known to our Federal parliamentariams.

Ex Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard has heard of Climategate

Over at Catallaxy they had the fortitude to read through Julia Gillard’s long article justifying her term in office. – Julia Gillard writes on power, purpose and Labor’s future

[For most Australians the last long drought was perceived to be the result of climate change, and when the drought broke their concerns about climate change receded. The circus in Copenhagen and “climategate” fed scepticism. Then, at the worst time, the structure of the Australian electricity market delivered huge rises to the electricity bills of families. While cost of living pressures were easing in other parts of the family budget, the pain of these big lumpy bills was acute and remembered.]

I think Julia Gillard is wrong when she says “For most Australians the last long drought was perceived to be the result of climate change,…”
IMHO most Australians are well enough aware of droughts and floods throughout Australian history.
Most Australians were also well aware that Govt funded scientists who should have known better – were linking the drought to “IPCC climate change” – and these views linking the “worst ever drought” to IPCC AGW were given prominence across much of our media.
So when the drought broke in 2010 the “lack of clothing” on these royal scientific opportunists was obvious to many.
“The circus in Copenhagen and “climategate”….” very likely fed into the rise of scepticism in Australia.

History of major voting patterns in Australian Federal Elections since 1993

Up for discussion – will add more today

For those overseas not familiar with quirks of politics downunder –
Australian Labor Party – similar to British Labour party or left wing of USA Democrats.
“Coalition” refers to a right of centre grouping of the Liberal and National Parties and all their divers variations. The Nationals have their origins in an earlier Country Party.
Greens I think all should understand – usually to the left of Labor in the political spectrum and Labor and the Greens have a policy of exchanging preference votes.
The Democrats were a centrist group of voters who could not decide between the two major parties.
Some comments – the dying of the Democrats corresponds to some extent with the rise of the Greens – so it is possible that the peak Green vote in recent years around 2010 was inflated by some of these centrist people who might have departed the Greens in 2013.
Labors decline from 2007 to 2010 might have been partly due to their left wing turning to the Greens. However it is not so easy to speculate on what has happened in the 2013 Election on 7 September 2013 as both the Green and Labor votes are down by a similar amount.
So we are forced to conclude that about ~3 per 100 voters left the greens for Labor – while at the same time ~6 per 100 voters left Labor for other berths to the right of Labor.
The 2013 election has seen the rise of the centrist to right of centre Palmer United Party with 5.6% of primary votes which could give them a couple of Lower House seats as well as two Senate seats – in Australia close contests often take two weeks to resolve due to the 13 day wait for postal and absentee votes to trickle in and for preferences to be distributed.
The big question – “what is so wrong with Labor that their vote is in such decline?”
IMHO the answer is in these areas –
Trade Unions finance the Labor Party and expect huge influence in return.
This leads to strong Union influence over all candidate preselections – which means most Labor MP’s are either ex Union officials or Labor/Union lawyers. To win back more primary votes Labor needs to reform in a direction away from Unions – IMHO.
There have been some odd features of the 2013 Federal election – not the least has been the Greens preference deals with Palmer United Party – Clive Palmer getting his wealth through his ownership of coal mines. Work that one out.
Just to give a taste of the variety of Senate candidates and the problems of working out where your vote might end up under various preference deals – this useful article tries to explain. – Why you should take time and vote below the line. Of course voting below the line on the NSW Senate papers requires you to fill in 110 preferences in order, with v few errors.
So to some extent Australian electoral procedures have got near the crazy stage.
No wonder that in NSW a Senator has been assisted into the Senate by the famous “Donkey Vote” which comes about by some voters just putting a 1 in the first space.
I like the sense of humour from Tim Blair – EVERYBODY WINS A PRIZE

Fairfax media trumpets very marginal claim by the BoM that winter 2013 across Victoria made a record for warm mean temperatures

The BoM feeds out this information knowing media mates will beat the thing up even further – as in this paean to warming – Warm winter caps nation’s hottest year – September 2, 2013 – Tim Colebatch, Peter Hannam
Here is a screenshot from a BoM webpage showing how marginal this claim is.

You have to love the warmists – they take a very marginal result from Victoria which when I last looked makes up 2.95% of the Australian total area. Then roll that over into all manner of warmist statements about this or that part of Australia – or this or that timespan – or this or that temperature metric.
To read more Continue reading Fairfax media trumpets very marginal claim by the BoM that winter 2013 across Victoria made a record for warm mean temperatures