CSIRO’s Dr David Post huge climate flip-flop

This weekend the nations press and media is full of this BoM/CSIRO story predicting the big “big dry” drought will return despite the useful post Autumn rains.

Now I do not know anybody who does not accept that Australia’s climate history is dominated by a series of droughts – so predicting future droughts is a bit of a non event. However what the BoM/CSIRO are saying I think is that the “worst drought ever” of the last decade will reappear and continue worsening – I think that is the doomster message.

Anyway – because the CSIRO’s Dr David Post is widely quoted this weekend as being connected with the source report for this weekend media blitz – “South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative” which interestingly came out in May 2010 just before record winter and September rains – I thought it worthwhile looking a bit closer at what Dr Post says.

I came across this fascinating article from January this year headed “No Link – Drought and Climate Change – CSIRO” – where he says –

Dr Post said in January there is “no evidence” linking drought to climate change in eastern Australia, including the Murray-Darling Basin.

“At this stage, we’d prefer to say we’re talking about natural variability. The science is not sufficiently advanced to say it’s climate change, one way or the other. The jury is still out on that.”

The Canberra Times carried a similar article.

So in a few short months Dr Post seems to have changed his opinion 180 degrees on the influence of “climate change” on drought.
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Australian wheat crop history does not shout “worst drought ever”

Of all the knee jerk green-media beatups – that of “worst drought ever” or variations on that theme to cover the years 2001 and later – would one of the most predictable storylines of recent years.

My experience is that when rainfall data for an area in question are examined – the claims usually do not stand up. But lets take a broadbrush approach –

Downunder wheat production

The graphic of Australian wheat production history (2010 number is an estimate from Abare) indicates a few dry years in the last decade but there must have been much useful rain.

Agreed ? – or wheat does not grow.

MDB water-buy-back scheme redundant after rains

Just now we are seeing a classic example of totally pointless Australian Government meddling – that can not do anybody – or the environment any good.

The last decade has seen much publicity by the “expensive water lobby” – much talk of “worst drought ever in the history of the planet” etc etc we have all heard the GreenMedia lies and exaggerations. This has driven the incompetent various Australian Govts to lather up in a Green fervour and plan to buy back water from irrigators – to simply pour into the river environments which would help maintain swamps a bit wetter than they otherwise might have been.

Unfortunately for all these high paid Green planners – SE Australia has had a wet winter and record wet September rainfall which has caused much wetting and even some flooding down our Murray Darling Basin waterways – including opening the Murray mouth to the sea for the first time in a long while.

So – in a nutshell – let us be thankful that nature has already done what the future water-buy-backs were planned to do.

Why not put all these expensive water-buy-back plans back in a file marked “NOT NEEDED NOW” – and we can be thankful that for the time being, nature has done the job for us. Let’s get off the backs of the irrigators and let them get on with their job.

BoM data package 30 years out of date

Fascinating press story from The Australian. — “Energy-efficiency weather data 30 years old”

I would guess the BoM are in such a tangle with their adjustments – they are paralysed as to how to update this package.

There is no doubt the BoM understands the impact of the urban heat island (UHI) on urban climates. But I note the press article below never mentions the UHI. That gives me less confidence in those spokespeople.

In 1997 – before climate issues became as political as they are now – the BoM published a little primer on urban climates – which shock-horror – actually mentioned the UHI.

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#2 Ongoing BoM utter incompetence

This time we show the huge divergence between the September quarter Rainfall Outlook – and the actual rainfall deciles for the same period.

2010 Sep quarter Australian  BoM  rain outlook failure

Clearly the BoM have near zero predictive skills over 1 to 3 months out – any minor agreements are probably due to chance.

Yet our nations policy on carbon emissions will be built assuming the BoM and their supporting pro-IPCC orgs have predictive skills that compel our GreenLabor Govt to believe we will be seriously warmer over the coming century.

We are told by the BoM that September rainfall could be an all time record for Australia. Note this surreal article in the Sydney Morning Herald which starts by saying, “Global warming may have given Australia its wettest September in more than 100 years, but “extreme dry years” lie ahead, the Bureau of Meteorology says.”

This seems to me to be in contradiction of the facts as reported by weatherzone.com.au who say, “After their coldest winter in 13 years Sydney residents have just experienced their coldest September in five years..”

I have heard the BoM on TV news saying in effect, “September 2010 rain was an anomaly – we are really still in a dry spell and headed for dryer times”.

That seems to be the drift of their recent “Special Climate Statement 22″ – I am suspicious of their Fig 3 in SCS22 and would like to see data back to pre 1900.

Time will tell if the BoM is right to say – “extreme dry years” lie ahead – but IMHO some sections of the BoM are stunningly incompetent and only mass sackings and a re-focus on their observing network would make the BoM relevant to Australian needs.