Category Archives: Solar

A quick look at a few climate related issues as 2015 starts

Sun spot numbers have for nine months now been forming a shoulder in the 60 to 90(RI) range – November RI number was 70.1 and December 78.
Sunspot chart updated through December –

The much predicted and ballyhooed 2014 El Nino hopes remain just that – warmista dreams – as SOI numbers remain as I said muddling around beneath the El Nino threshold. No one doubts another El Nino will arive sometime – but despite the $Billions spent on warmista climate research facts are nobody knows when the next El Nino arrives. Note: The Nov 2014 post has been listed private because it turned out to be a spam magnet attracting 5,000+ per day spam comments. Who understands it.

The BoM has jumped out of the blocks to say 2014 was the third hottest year for Australia after 2013 and 2005. Of course it helps to realize the BoM is talking about their stroked tweaked and warmed ACORN data series. You can make maps at this BoM site but it is AWAP data not ACORN I think. Note how 2005 map is blighted with the “National Night Time Hotspot” in the SW of NT. Love that error ridden BoM data.
The ABC has an article where you can load annual mean temperature decile maps going back 100 years.
But RSS satellites are saying the 36 year trend for Australia warms less than the Indian Ocean. Fascinating.

Solar Update March 2014 – ten charts by David Archibald

Solar Update March 2014 by David Archibald

With Solar Cycle 24 maximum in March 2013 (see the heliospheric current sheet tilt angle in Figure 5 below) and a one year lag between solar activity and neutron count, we have probably seen the minimum neutron count for this cycle. The minimum count is well above the minimum value for Solar Cycle 20.

In terms of neutron count, Solar Cycle 24 isn’t much weaker than the previous four cycles at a similar stage of development.

What is really interesting is what has happened to the solar wind flow pressure. Despite a high sunspot number and F10.7 flux for this cycle, in January 2014 the solar wind flow pressure fell to a new low of 1.2 nPa for the instrumental record. With another 10 years of solar cycle fall time ahead of us, this suggests that the neutron count is going to be impressive by the end of the decade.

Similarly, despite high sunspot numbers and F10.7 flux values, the Ap Index appears to be in a new regime with current values around the previous apparent floor level of activity for the instrumental record.

Based on the heliospheric tilt angle, Solar Cycle 24 maximum was in Carrington rotation 2134, which is March 2013. With the Solar cycle 23/24 minimum in December 2008, Solar Cycle 24 rise time was 4 years and three months.

The F10.7 flux is having a new peak of activity.

As with the solar wind flow pressure and Ap Index, the interplanetary magnetic field appears to be in a new regime in Solar Cycle 24 in which peak activity is at about the level of the previous floor of activity.

Solar Cycle 24 had been tracking Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum, quite closely in terms of monthly sunspot number. It is now somewhat stronger at the same stage of the cycle.

Livingstone and Penn’s forecast of a Solar Cycle 25 maximum amplitude of 7 is still the only prediction of the size of that cycle from the solar physics community. We are still a few years out before solar poloidal field strength can be used to estimate the size of the next cycle.

Of 54 predictions of Solar Cycle 24 peak amplitude, the six at the bottom of the range could be considered to be in the ball park of the achieved result. This suggests that the solar physics community’s understanding of the Sun, and thus climate, has the potential to evolve further. From: Pesnell, W.D., Predictions of Solar Cycle 24, Solar Phys., 252, 209-220, 2008
David Archibald