I note the abstract of their paper – Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum – is misleading when it starts by saying – “Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity..” Stating that any decline is in the future. Yet in the paper they clearly state the decline is happening now and is accelerating. – “The decline in solar activity has continued, to the time of writing, and is faster than any other such decline in the 9,300 years covered by the cosmogenic isotope data1.” Never trust anything written by pro-IPCC sources without checking the fine print.
Two media reports – Solar decline may mean colder UK winters – Met Office study – and – Britain faces FREEZING winters as slump in solar activity threatens ‘little Ice Age’
RI numbers indicating sunspot activity could be off that shoulder –
Download the 7MB pdf report – page 10 Box 2.2 for the amazing quote saying […unusually weak solar activity] is a cooling influence. That they have the hide to include that in the face of decades of the IPCC refusing to accept the sun was affecting changes in earths temperature.
They also say [None of these influences is likely to continue over the long term.] Talk about messy statements – so solar – aerosols – volcanoes are all short term.
I like the quotes in Box 2.1 – where they pontificate about measuring “climate variables” – They say – (with careful account for changes in instrument types,
observational practices, instrument locations and urban areas)
It could be re-written along lines – with careful account for changes in instrument types, observational practices, instrument locations and taking care to include in global temperature compilations artificially warmed data from every urban area on the planet.
Sun spot numbers have for nine months now been forming a shoulder in the 60 to 90(RI) range – November RI number was 70.1 and December 78.
Sunspot chart updated through December –
The much predicted and ballyhooed 2014 El Nino hopes remain just that – warmista dreams – as SOI numbers remain as I said muddling around beneath the El Nino threshold. No one doubts another El Nino will arive sometime – but despite the $Billions spent on warmista climate research facts are nobody knows when the next El Nino arrives. Note: The Nov 2014 post has been listed private because it turned out to be a spam magnet attracting 5,000+ per day spam comments. Who understands it.
The BoM has jumped out of the blocks to say 2014 was the third hottest year for Australia after 2013 and 2005. Of course it helps to realize the BoM is talking about their stroked tweaked and warmed ACORN data series. You can make maps at this BoM site but it is AWAP data not ACORN I think. Note how 2005 map is blighted with the “National Night Time Hotspot” in the SW of NT. Love that error ridden BoM data.
The ABC has an article where you can load annual mean temperature decile maps going back 100 years.
But RSS satellites are saying the 36 year trend for Australia warms less than the Indian Ocean. Fascinating.
RI numbers are in and show the largest monthly drop for over a year – will update SWO count later.
Daily progress through month at this RI Silso site.
ABC headlines – Silex shelves major solar power plant on RET uncertainty – there is no pretty way to do it – these wasteful boondoggles must be shut down.
I have noticed this for a year or so – as cycle 24 progresses – if you look at the difference SWO minus RI the trend is drifting higher.
Illustrating on the chart the Sep 2011 RI of 78 corresponds with the SWO number 106.1. While the Nov 2013 RI of 77.6 finds SWO at 125.7.
Hoping to learn the reason why.
Current April RI number from Solar Influences Data analysis Center – RWC Belgium – Royal Observatory of Belgium. NOAA NASA SWO sunspot numbers data still to come.
Solar Terrestrial Activity Report – Jan Alvestad – incl current month progress
The twin peaked shape becoming better defined as cycle 24 proceeds – interesting to compare SWO & RI at different times. Previous solar threads.