Exactly who was emailing who in Climategate

This social graph of CRU emails shows how miniscule is this IPCC “power group” if you ponder how many active climatologists there must be globally. Sent in by The Iconoclast. The software counts the To and CC lines but does not count the emedded emails, many of which are duplicates. The 300kb graphic is over 3000 pixels wide, best downloaded – it prints OK in A4 but A3 would be better.

Jones et al 1986 methodical insertion of warming bias

Jones et al 1986 looked at 86 Australian stations and rejected 46 (25 Short term – 21 long term). Of the 40 they used 27 were short term and 13 long term. Of the long term there were 5 large cities.
The 27 short term stations were mostly only quoted from 1951 onward – regardless of what data was available. It just so happens that the years just post WWII were not prominently warm in Australia so an “automatic” warming trend was reinforced into the CRU Australian component.
Here are 11 examples where Jones et al systematically truncated pre-1951 data or ignored more rural data around many small town Australian stations. These graphics and text have been extracted from a 1992 vintage Word doc that somehow survived the decades and how many HDD’s. Note 27 Nov 09 to clear up any ambiguity – check my comment (WSH) 17 below.
Continue reading Jones et al 1986 methodical insertion of warming bias

Selection of Prof Phil Jones and CRU emails from over a decade now searchable online

We have heard the amazing news broken by Anthony Watts of the Hadley Centre hack and download of the 61MB file named FOI2009.zip
Now gone from the original RU site but still available here.
In my opinion it is from Climate Research Unit (CRU) at U of East Anglia, Norwich – UK and is not from the UKMO’s Hadley Centre. It could have been released by a process as simple as a CRU staffer mistakenly leaving the file in a public part of the CRU FTP site.
Marc Morano has set up a very useful searchable list of the emails. I even found emails in there from me. Just over 1,000 email files all told, each one refs to more than one email – so probably several thousand all up. Amazing stuff.
Life changing for CRU.

Global carbon emissions 1960-2008 and economic events

Fluctuations in global economic activity are clearly imprinted on the carbon emissions timeseries.
global carbon emissions 1960-2008
It is interesting to see the delay between major events and the consequent troughs in the annual rate of change. The second oil shock and the 1987 stock market crash both took five years to produce the maximum dip in the rate of slowing in annual emissions. It seems likely that the 2007-2008 market crashes and GFC will cause another minimum in the % rate of annual change – a few years in the future – and it could well be off the bottom of this chart.

This article in the UK Telegraph says; “Carbon dioxide emissions ‘cut by recession'”
Global greenhouse gas emissions will be 9 per cent below what they were expected to be in 2012 as a result of the recession, researchers said today.
Data from CDIAC, and for recent years, this Netherlands site

BoM forgets Darwin history

I have just seen this BoM media release trumpeting “Warmest month on record in Darwin”. Darwin has just experienced its warmest month on record, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. Darwin Airport mean monthly max for October 09 was 34.8.
Perhaps the BoM is too obsessed with making weather news fit in with media puff re the IPCC global warming hysteria. Too busy to have time to check their own historic data. – Darwin Post Office 14016 had a rash of hotter daytime Octobers in the 19th Century.
1882 35.3
1883 34.9
1886 35.2
1888 35.3
1889 35.7
1891 35.2
1892 35.5
1893 35.3
1901 34.9
Many BoM utterances need “checking with a fine tooth comb.”

“…I finished .. about 8 o’clock that night and there had been no reports at that stage of casualties…”

To give us some comprehension of the magnitude of the breakdown in functions of the Victorian fire bureaucracies on 7 Feb 2009, it is helpful to ponder this statement by Dr Tollhurst
telling how he left Melbourne fire HQ around 8pm on the 7th Feb 2009 having heard no reports of casualties. An hour or two after ~150 people were dying.
Here is the exact quote from the ABC TV Four Corners doc on 16th Feb. I have the whole transcript pasted below. (Scroll down two thirds of article)
[Well I guess the surprising thing was that at the end of the day, I finished my time there about 8 o’clock that night and there had been no reports at that stage of casualties, so I was quite surprised when I got back to my accommodation and turned the news on at about 11 o’clock to hear of the tragedies.]

ABC journalist Jane Cowan is doing a stirling job continuing to report the fallout from the fires and the Royal Commission. To read her series of articles – Got to be a book in this Jane.
This recent article about the effect of the wind change late on 7 Feb reveals fire execs mindsets and amazing uniformity of views. Justifying their failure to update their warnings late in the afternoon when BoM data showed the change coming early.
Continue reading “…I finished .. about 8 o’clock that night and there had been no reports at that stage of casualties…”

The BoM is a national disgrace

In Canberra we are on pretty strict water restrictions, water bills are sky-high yet the BoM can not with reasonable accuracy record rainfall data at a station in our catchments.

Below are extracts from many emails over months sent from a concerned citizen to the BoM (with BoM replies) re faulty recording of rain data at Mount Ginini, on the border of the ACT ~40km SW of Canberra as the Crow flies. I could drive there easily within a coupla hours in an old car with ground clearance.
I mention this because on 27 Oct the BoM pleads “remoteness of the site” as an issue. Truly pathetic.
Just remember this series of emails address data problems at ONE site and a site fairly close to a city, in a city water catchment. It makes me wonder about data quality from the thousands of more remote sites.
If you go to this BoM page, then run your mouse down the middle part of the western ACT border, the station name should pop up. You can see daily rain data for stations all over Australia on maps in this series.
First emails at the bottom of the page – so best start down there. I have tried to take out names.
Continue reading The BoM is a national disgrace

How quickly BoM weather model predictions implode

On 23 October the BoM published this map of rain predictions for the 3 months November 2009 – January 2010.
Nv-Jan10 rain prediction Australia
Just 2 short weeks later, on the nights of 5th and 6th November, the NSW north coast was deluged, Coffs Harbour reporting up to 500mm over the two days and flood reports are all over our media.
How many $Million does the BoM cost us ? What can their models be worth to the nation if results collapse in a heap in 2 short weeks.
And this organisation will be advising our Prime Minister of climate changes to take place for the next CENTURY !!
And Kev747 can not understand why the public is getting more sceptical of his Govts. ETS scheme which relies for its justification on IPCC rubbish.