Errors in IPCC climate science

Link to 400 kb pdf file of David’s provocative and original updated (May 2007) paper which says we are coming into a weaker solar cycle and that a cooler climate is likely in decades ahead. David also explains that the Greenhouse effect due to carbon dioxide is miniscule, as does the 1998 paper by Sherwood Idso.

See, How MINISCULE is the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect ? an html version of a 1998 paper by Sherwood B Idso in Vol 10: 69-82 of Climate Research, “CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic’s view of potential climate”.

See also Jack Barrett’s paper: Greenhouse molecules, their spectra and function in the atmosphere

Some perspective on media reporting of complaints that the climate is not perfect, assembled by John Shotsky.

January 5, 1855, Wednesday

As the climate of every country has an inseparable relation with the physical character of its inhabitants, the attention of the Government was directed, some few years since, to the collection of correct meteorological statistics throughout the whole of the United States.
THIS CLIMATE OF OURS; WHY THESE OPEN WINTERS AND TEMPERATE SUMMERS? THE GEOLOGICAL EVIDENCE OF THE ALTERNATE PREVALENCE OF A SEMITROPICAL ATMOSPHERE.
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March 14 news item on news.com.au (copied below) reported a “…monster whirlpool off the NSW coast”. The Australian CSIRO are quoted, “Dubbed a sea “monster” by CSIRO oceanographers…”.

Something about this article rang out of tune with me, I was sure I had heard that eddies in the East Australian Current (EAC) were commonplace and I recall Sydney-Hobart racing yachts having to sail close inshore at times to get the best ride south.

A few minutes searching in Google produced this informative website where satellite images of the EAC show eddies here and there.
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Audio files of Corruption and Crime Commission (CCC) of Western Australia (WA) taped phone calls.

Wikipedia has a fair enough intro page to explain the setting of all this for those not familar with Australian current affairs at: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Burke

I do not think for a moment that infuence peddling on this scale is confined to Australia, I think Government in many places works like this but this is just a rare glimpse into that world of deals, fixes, mates and favours.

If you Google “Brian Burke wa premier” you will find much material explaining how this master lobbyist has wreaked havoc in the Western Australian Labor Government, leading to the resignations of several cabinet ministers in early 2007.

But just enjoy the audio linked above

Olenek is a weather station in the Taymir Peninsular, Northern Siberia, 68.5 N, 112.4 E, altitude : 220 m. For map;
www.warwickhughes.com/climate/taymgrid.gif
For a discussion of Tsurf trends in this region see;
www.warwickhughes.com/climate/tamyr.htm
That’s the introduction and there is plenty of reading and points to explore there, however the purpose of this post is to expose a particularly gross inhomogeneity in Olenek data when compared to its neighbours. A fault not picked up in 15 to 20 years by the three major global climate groups. Read the rest of this entry »

In his latest paper, CO2: The Greatest Scientific Scandal of Our Time
Dr Zbigniew Jaworowski highlights these four basic statements in the “Summary for Policymakers”:
1. Carbon dioxide, the most important anthropogenic emissions increased markedly as a result of human activities, and its atmospheric concentration of 379 ppmv (parts by volume) in 2005 by far exceeded the natural range of 180 to 300 ppmv over the last 650,000 years.
2. Since 1750, human activities warmed the climate.
3. The warmth of the last half-century is unusual, is the highest in at least the past 1,300 years, and is “very likely” caused by increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations;
4. Predictions are made that anthropogenic warming will continue for centuries, and between 2090 and 2099 the global average surface temperature will increase 1.1°C to 6.4°C. Various scare stories of global catastrophes are prophesied to
occur if man-made emissions are not curbed by drastic political decisions. The obvious beneficial effects of warming for man and all the biosphere are downplayed.

There is much comment in the Australian media about water shortages and prominent in this whole “debate” is the Wentworth Group, who are held out to be water experts and Professor Peter Cullen, of Canberra I think, often seems to speak for the Wentworth Group. I have just noticed a recent news item, copied below, where Prof Cullen commences by restating some popular mantras.
“Much of Australia seems to be drying and we are now facing real water scarcity for many of our cities and for rural areas. This crisis in The Murray-Darling Basin has been brought on by the climate shift and the serious drought..”.

The black trendline on this BoM rainfall history 1900-2006 for the Murray Darling Basin (MDB) shows the 1940′s were dryer than now and there is NO evidence in these data of a climate shift. It is perfectly clear that current dryer conditions are normal cyclic events to be expected and that planning of urban water infrastructure has failed to keep pace with population and consumption trends.

I agree with many of the other points in the article and fully expect that Wentworth Group people will dominate the “experts” group to be appointed under the Federal Governments new plans.

It is worth making the point here that high rainfall in the 30 years from the late 1940′s could well have been due in part to the post WWII airborne cloud seeding experiments. So it is ironic that our whole structure of State water allocations might have been warped by a process that has been stopped now for 20 or so years.
Souirce for graphic;http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/timeseries.cgi
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Good to see other people are noticing the pathetic standard of BoM attempts to model rainfall 90 days out in their three month Outlooks.

Scroll well down on this article at: www.stockinterview.com/News/03092007/Ranger-Flooded-ERA.html
under the Australian rainfall map for

“On February 22nd, the Australian Government’s Bureau of Meteorology issued a “Neutral” three-month outlook for the country’s Northern Territories, writing, “The Northern Territory outlook for total March to May rainfall shows no strong swings in the odds toward wetter or drier conditions.” A few days later, one of the world’s largest producing uranium mines shut down because of heavy rainfall and flooding, ..etc”

The BoM prediction/forecast, whatever, could not hold for a week. Readers here may have seen my critique of years of failed BoM rainfall Outlooks at: www.warwickhughes.com/drought/ which could do with updating.

Premier Peter Beattie and his Deputy Premier Anna Bligh are whining in concert that the Federal Government is not doing enough to assist drought-stricken Queenslanders.
Within the last ten years the Queensland Govt. stood by and let Cubbie Station trap river flows at the border with NSW up to a scale of 600 GL per year (MDBC), about equal to the annual water consumption in Sydney.
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Recent news items copied below record the discovery of a 140 million year old trapdoor spider species in the SW of Western Australia. If is fascinating to read carefully the words from the Department of Environment and Conservation and ponder how they reveal exactly how Dark Green policy is formed that will impinge irrationally on the States population.
Here is a species that has survived since before the dinosaurs and in just the last million years has coped with four global ice ages, involving repeated climate changes through times that were most certainly, hotter than now, colder than now, wetter than now and dryer than now. Not to mention tens of thousands of years subjected to indigenous forest burning customs, followed by over a century of european logging.
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