Australian Government understating Perth catchment rain

Following above average rain in May-June-July over Perth dam catchments I was puzzled that I had seen an Australian Govt Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) rep speaking on TV late in July saying that while July rain was good May had been dry and June very dry.

In fact long term stations representative of the catchments region received a solid 108% of the May-June-July rain averaged over the last 32 years. This will not be reported in the media.

See various links at: Profligate Govt waste of water following average catchment rain

Should we be surprised ?

Abuse and incompetence in fight against global warming
Up to 20% of carbon savings in doubt as monitoring firms criticised by UN body
A Guardian investigation has found evidence of serious irregularities at the heart of the process the world is relying on to control global warming.

[An earlier post showed the Albany wind farm in southern Western Australia only produces 80% of claimed power, which probably translates into another waste of Federal Govt money. We think it is highly likely that carbon credits associated with wind power in Australia are being claimed more than once. An audit is needed and data should be public.]
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True temperature trends for Puerto Rico hidden in fragmented data

Last year I posted “San Juan Puerto Rico, EXACTLY how UHI warming can get into global gridded T trends” . I should have added this Fig 4 from Duchon’s 86 paper that I refer to.

There is IPCC AGW shouting out from the UHI affected San Juan trend, incorporated by Jones et al and the IPCC of course.

The trends below in Fig 4, from smaller places show little warming. Data are of poorer quality in a technical sense, but that is where the truth is.

Exactly where Lockwood and Fröhlich are wrong

A recent paper by Mike Lockwood of the University of Southampton has claimed that over the last 20 years, solar influences on climate have declined, while Earth has warmed.

Lockwood, M., Frolich, C., Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature, Proc. R. Soc. A doi:10.1098/rspa.2007.1880, Published online

This paper is the latest in a rich tradition of near 20 years of IPCC inspired attempts to trivialize the solar/climate link.

There has been more than one rebuttal around the internet but I like Joe D’Aleo’s, “Shining More Light on the Solar Factor A discussion of Problems with the Royal Society Paper by Lockwood and Frohlich” which quotes an analysis by Dr N. Scafetta which draws on work by Dr. Richard Willson of Columbia University, an expert in satellite solar data.

Joe’s paper and blog are at ICECAP.
Satellite solar data interpretations by Willson

I have constructed this graphic above which juxtaposes competing interpretations of satellite solar data. There are discontinuities in satellite data series. Lockwood uses the PMOD interpretation which purports to show a slight downward trend. The ACRIM version shows an increasing trend in TSI.

Another solid win at ClimateAudit.org

Steve McIntyre over at Climate Audit has had his hard work pay off with a discovery that the USA temperature data of Dr James Hansen of NASA GISS has concealed an error in recent years. This I understand affects the ranking of which is the hottest year in USA thermometer history. NASA had claimed 1998 as the hottest year for USA but I understand that after this error is allowed for, 1934 is still the hottest year.

It is a shame that the Climate Audit site is down as I write but they will be back again pretty soon I am sure.
I thought I would just quickly illustrate that there is little agreement bewteen the big climate groups about the ranking of 1934 and 1998. Using data from the KNMI ClimateExplorer.nl

USA T trends

We see that the Hadley Centre and Jones both have 1998 well below 1934. Jones CRUT2 stops in 2005 but the Hadley Centre CRUT3 has 2006 (1.08689) almost as warm as 1934 (1.09514).

The GHCN based CAMS has 2006 relatively lower than the UK based groups and the Spencer and Christy satellite data from the lower troposphere sees 1999 higher than 1998 and 2006 not notably warm as the Hadley Centre finds but the satellite data obviously includes areas of ocean while all the other series are land only.

Seawater desalination questions

Anyone reading my blog knows I think the Western Australian Government has been very premature in opting for very expensive and high environmental impact seawater desalination to augment Perth water supplies when several other vastly cheaper options are available to harvest free rainwater in both dams and local rivers or local Perth region groundwater.

Just quickly to recap the three main areas where supplies could be augmented much cheaper than seawater desalination.

  • Managing bush in dam catchments as it was done ten years ago could add 100 GL per year on average.
  • Cutting the Gnangara pines forthwith and replacing them with a mix of native vegetation and housing could add a similar amount to annual pumping potential on the Gnangara Mound groundwater.
  • The Avon and Murray rivers could easily supply up to say 75 GL per year of slightly saline water which could augment the Agritech Wellington Dam desalination project to around 100 GL per year.

OK ! Have I made my point that turning to ultra-expensive seawater desalination for Perth was totally unnecessary ? In other words, another HUGE COSTLY GOVT MISTAKE.

Now some questions that puzzle me about the current situation.

  • We have a foreign company (or companies ?) engaged in doing multi-billion dollar business (must total $5 to 10 Billion now) with three or four State Governments and yet how many people knows who this company is ?
  • What appears in the Australian media about the foreign desalination company(ies) ?
  • Do they say anything in public in their own right ?

I have been told by a academic water expert from a prestigious Perth university, the sort of place the media contact for quotes on water stories, that “..the technology for desalination is moving forward at an unbelievable rate..”.

Yet the WA Govt. Water Corporation say water from our first seawater desalination plant at Kwinana costs $1.20 per kilolitre but water from the proposed Binningup plant will cost $2.00 per kilolitre. Both water factories are planned to output 45 GL or potable water per year.

Put another way, the Kwinana plant with cost over-runs has cost nearly $500 Million but the proposed Binningup plant is estimated already to be ~$1Billion, over-runs still to come. Are seawater desalination construction costs sky-rocketing like this around the world ?

I am also interested to learn if the proposed $1 Billion Binningup plant was put out for international tender ?

Another issue puzzles me and that is who has been behind the concept that has been floated often in our media in recent years and was even the subject of a referendum in Toowoomba, SE Queensland. This notion that our water shortage is so acute that in some communities we could be forced to drink treated sewage. I am fascinated to learn who has been driving these media campaigns.

Enough questions for now.

Perth is not running out of water, water is running out of Perth

Recent TV news about ample river flows for the Avon Descent white water boat race near Perth, Western Australia, raise an interesting question. The Avon River joins the Swan River and runs right through the centre of Perth.

Perth has a water shortage, water users are on restrictions, water prices are sky-rocketing from 16 cents per kilolitre to $2 per kilolitre, so why is this water wasting to sea in the Swan River, right through the heart of Perth. Amazing that there is not ONE word in the media joining the dots between the abundant water in the Avon, wasting to sea and the Perth water crisis.

Weird hey ? Continue reading

Colossal Govt. waste of free rainfall

May to July rainfall in Perth dam catchments has been just over average going by data from the BoM stations: Mundaring, Karnet and Dwellingup. Taking an average of the 3 BoM stations, 561 mm has fallen over the 3500 sq kms of catchments meaning that 1,963 GL of water has fallen free from the skies.

From my graphic showing the drastic decline in catchment yields since the mid 1990’s, we can see that current yields are ~3%.
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