Errors in IPCC climate science

Topher and Lord Christopher Monckton are combining on a project making a DVD.
Donations would be very welcome.

Japanese scientist Kyoji Kimoto proposes that there is a long standing error in IPCC AGW theory.
According to IPCC’s AGW theory,Climate Sensitivity CS (With Feedback WF) is expressed as follows.
CS(WF)=CS(No Feedbck NF)x(Feedback effects)=1.2K x 2.5=3K

In IPCC theory, it is the most important postulation that CS(NF) is 1.2K,
which is based on Cess’s calculation having mathematical error – for details downbload 76KB 6 page pdf report.
From energy budget of the earth,CS(WF) is 0.2-0.5K instead of 3K,
which coincides with obsevational CS(WF) of 0.2-0.8K by other methods.

Other posts on this blog along similar subjects.
IPCC models have failed to correctly deal with changes in air density – 2011 by Canadian Dean Brooks
Recent Evidence for Reduced Climate Sensitivity – March 2008
Hoyt,D., 2007: The collapse of arguments for high climate sensitivity.
How MINISCULE is the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect ? – 2006 – Sherwood Idso’s 1998 paper online.
A Critical Examination of Climate Change – Dr Doug Hoyt 2005

Following my articles of a few days ago – BBC exaggerated warming trend in David Attenborough’s TV show “Africa” and – CRUT4 surface temperature grid box anomalies trend over Kenya compared to NASA satellites lower troposphere – the source of the David Attenborough 3.5° warming claim explained. I have dug into station data for the 5 degree grid box over Kenya and it looks clear after comparing anomalies with Garissa, that the Nairobi Airport data carries non-climatic warming from the late 1990′s. Although Garissa is almost 300km away in the NE of the grid box and both stations have many data gaps – the difference points to Nairobi Airport data being faulty.
Nairobi Airport temperature anomalies

Garissa temperature anomalies

Difference Nairobi Airport minus Garissa

It is a puzzle how Jones et al data can carry such obvious standout mistakes after years of polishing through how many versions? – plus years of input from the UKMO? IPCC science must surely be in a very shoddy state.

A few days ago I posted – BBC exaggerated warming trend in David Attenborough’s TV show “Africa”. Well here is an explanation for the scary warming rates quoted by TV host David Attenborough. Satellites detect no significant warming over the gridbox covering the Kenyan localities mentioned in the Guardian story.

While CRUT4 surface data agrees pretty well with satellites up to about 1998 – after that the surface departs erratically much warmer, improving somewhat in 2012. I would bet the sheep station that the surface data will be at fault here, probably micro-site effects – note the increased data gaps too. Remember these anomalies are from the entire grid-box area – there will be individual stations better and worse.
Ironic that UNEP has HQ in Kenya. What does this say for CRUT4 quality control measures – big on published words – next to non-existent in reality.
Note data from KNMI Climate Explorer thanks.
Ed note 19 Feb – the original graphic was mistakenly made with data from a 5 x 10° grid box 5S to Equator and 30-40E. Should have been 35-40E. As the graphic is now. The CRUT4 data looked identical for the two grid areas but satellite numbers changed slightly as you would expect.

Just came across this concise article at the Arizona blog WryHeat – Urban heat island effect on temperatures, a tale of two cities – Authored by Jonathan DuHamel. We need more examples defining the UHI out there all the time to counter the colossal IPCC compliant propaganda.

Over a decade ago I posted this page – Phoenix AZ five degree grid cell –
Had a quick look at it, graphics need improving but stands the test of time I think – an example of one of the great rorts in science.

This story has been running the rounds. “BBC exaggerated climate change in David Attenborough’s Africa”. Donna Laframboise has just dug deeper into the scam and shreds the BBC’s shoddy work further in – “The Workshop Presentation that Never Was”

Thought it worth restating that I have pointed out in Aug 2006 “Satellites vs surface, amazing agreement over the USA” then revisited the theme again
in 2010 and 2012 – The Jones et al CRUT trends are not worth a cup full of warm spit when compared against satellites lower troposphere trends over the large African grid-box 20S to 20N and 10E to 40E. Obviously something seriously wrong with surface data. I love the way satellites and surface agrees over the USA – CRU would not want any possums stirred up there.
Why is it that unpaid sceptics all over the world have to correct the work of highly paid IPCC warmists ?

Thanks to The National Business Review in New Zealand we have this rare article on Steve McIntyre while he was visiting downunder.

Canadians Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick for a decade now have spearheaded the forensic examination of faulty IPCC climate science. I can understand how he has been a “demon” to the IPCC and their cohorts. You only have to checkout the Climategate emails.

This IPCC leaked text is available here. –

Large proportions of Maori owned land (>60%) are steep and hilly and susceptible to damage from high intensity rainstorms and erosion; while low-land plains and terraces are vulnerable to flooding and high sedimentation (Harmsworth and Raynor, 2005; King et al., 2010).

Can somebody tell the IPCC that “low-land plains” are FORMED by floods over the aeons. Rivers and creeks flood and carry sediment out over bordering lands. This sediment drops out of suspension to form a new soil layer. A process that has been repeating since the beginning of time. You can not have “low-land plains” without occasional flooding and associated sedimentation.

Saw this headline – Australia getting hotter with greater risk of heatwaves: Climate Commission.
So I checked what the gold plated measure of Global Warming had to tell us. Annual data for the CRUTem3 land only dataset covering the Australian region 10 to 45 South and 110 to 155 East, updated through November last. Looks like this.

Clearly NO global warming was impacting Australia up till end November last – periods in the 1880′s and pre-1920 exceed recent warmth – since mid 2010 our temperatures have been mostly moderate. I will update this post as fresh data comes in for CRUTem3.
To allow us a peep at temperature anomalies for Australia in the lower troposphere from NASA satellites – we have this global map showing the anomaly for 2012 – note Australia is an utter non-event, mostly cooling, if anybody is thinking, “Global Warming impacting Australia”. Then we have a similar map for December 2012, same story, Australia is a non-starter re Global Warming. Satellite LT temperature archives.

The Christmas leak of IPCC memory sticks to Donna Laframboise has revealed a little 94 page creation on Australasia. Taking a quick skim through I was struck by this marvellous section on “…impacts of climate change on Maori…”.
Kiwis enjoy. I particularly liked – “…inequalities in political representation…” in the last para – and I thought all Kiwis had the vote.
You can download at Anthony Watts – scroll right down to the link to Chapter 25: Australasia – here or here
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