Another solid win at ClimateAudit.org

Steve McIntyre over at Climate Audit has had his hard work pay off with a discovery that the USA temperature data of Dr James Hansen of NASA GISS has concealed an error in recent years. This I understand affects the ranking of which is the hottest year in USA thermometer history. NASA had claimed 1998 as the hottest year for USA but I understand that after this error is allowed for, 1934 is still the hottest year.

It is a shame that the Climate Audit site is down as I write but they will be back again pretty soon I am sure.
I thought I would just quickly illustrate that there is little agreement bewteen the big climate groups about the ranking of 1934 and 1998. Using data from the KNMI ClimateExplorer.nl

USA T trends

We see that the Hadley Centre and Jones both have 1998 well below 1934. Jones CRUT2 stops in 2005 but the Hadley Centre CRUT3 has 2006 (1.08689) almost as warm as 1934 (1.09514).

The GHCN based CAMS has 2006 relatively lower than the UK based groups and the Spencer and Christy satellite data from the lower troposphere sees 1999 higher than 1998 and 2006 not notably warm as the Hadley Centre finds but the satellite data obviously includes areas of ocean while all the other series are land only.

61 thoughts on “Another solid win at ClimateAudit.org”

  1. Well I’m simply saying after all this time I’m still waiting on this “goodly number” and massive literature? Doesn’t exist.

    Am I quoting Realclimate? Don’t read the others. I suggest you’re now all over the shop.

    Thanks for the ad homs.

  2. Nigel Calder, Nature, 1974, Arithmatic of ice ages: adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1974Natur.252..216C

    MK Miles, Nature 276, 356 – 359 (23 November 1978: Predicting temperature trend in the Northern Hemisphere to the year 2000
    www.nature.com/nature/journal/v276/n5686/abs/276356a0.html

    Just a few, in certified peer-reviewed periodicals. Can find more, but really don’t have time or energy to discuss history with trolls.

    Sure, it’s easy to dismiss them now. Hindsight is always 20/20. Real easy to sit here in 2007 and poke fun at the science back then. Wasn’t real funny in 1975…

  3. Have you actually read these papers and understood what they say. Obviously not. Miles – “the importance of each of which in relation to the other is critical in determining whether temperature trend is rising or decreasing: the increase in CO2, which produces warming, and the increase in atmospheric dust, which produces cooling” .. .. ..

    And fancy quoting Calder as a source on this issue being the wacky denialist that he is. And now it’s become “just a few” has it – a few asymptoting to near zero. And you have the discourtesy to label me a troll. You’ve been called I’m afraid and have come up empty. I’m gone.

  4. “Just a few” is all I cared to post. As I said there’s more. Not that posting them here will do anything to affect your state of mind in anyway. In any event, I tire of jousting with court jesters (hey, if it’s good enough for Hansen….)

  5. Be sure to check out the boys over at Climateaudit. They have Hansen’s global temperature code and are busily debugging it and finding all sorts of errors with it. Everything they look at they say “Well this is incorrect, he’s (insert statisical jargon here) to the data.”

    They even give props to Warwick on an entry….

  6. This may seem too obvious to mention, but I will any way ;)

    1940 – 1978: Negative phase PDO. “Mean global temperature” slowly decreasing. By the 1970s, it had cooled enough to alarm people who believed the trend would continue. “Ice age alert!”

    1979 – 2006(?): Postive phase PDO. “Mean global temperature” slowly increasing. By the early to mid 00s, it had warmed enough to alarm people who believed the trend would continue. “Tropical age alert!”

    Hmmmmmm ….. do I detect a pattern here? Nature loves cyclical, and recursive, processes.

  7. re: 57 … more than a bit thin, but funny nevertheless.

    One more thing about my University education in the mid-late 70s, my school was not a front line climate research institution. So in order to be taught about the “coming ice age” theory, it had to come from somewhere else and be accepted enough to be taught at my school.

    It’s clear that Lil’ Lukefish is too young to have experienced/rejected the popular “C-I-A” theory in the 70s first hand, therefore he is relying blindly on the revisionist history of AGW drumbeaters like Weart. Luke’s general lack of technical education does the rest…

  8. At times it is not the errors that matter, but what you totally overlooked.

    Arhennius (1896)one of the founders of AGW, argued that the earth’s internal heat was irrelevant. And then it went on from there. You have this small speck, internal temperature 4,000 degrees K, cruising through rather sparse terrain where the thermostat is set at 1 degree K, and no heat is lost? Man, I want shares in the patent on that insulation.

    See the maps here, and then maybe the rest of the posts on ABC Pool Climate Change Group, here, if a sucker for punishment. Like the one here

    Join the group if you like, all opinions welcome. Google loves it, for some reason, at least in Oz.

    Have fun all,

    Peter.

  9. The media may have been talking global cooling and “Ice Age”, but the peer reviewed journals were talking about global warming. Here’s a selection of citations from the peer reviewed journals circa 1965-1979.

    [color=green]Benton, G.S., 1970: Carbon dioxide and its role in climate change, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 67, 898-898.

    Berger, A., 1979: Spectrum of climatic variations and their causal mechanisms. Geophysical Surveys, 3, 351-402.

    Brown, C.W. and C.D. Keeling, 1965: The Concentration of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in Antarctica. J. Geophy. Res., 70, 6077-6085.

    Broecker, W.S., 1975: Climate change: Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming? Science, 189, 460-463.

    Bryson, R.A., 1974: A perspective on climatic change. Science, 184, 753-760.

    Bryson, R. A., and G. J. Dittberner, 1976: A nonequilibrium model of hemispheric mean surface temperature. J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 2094-2106.

    Bryson, R. A., and G. J. Dittberner, 1977: Reply. J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 1821-1824.

    Budyko, M.I., 1972: The Future Climate. Eos, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 53, 868-874.

    Budyko, M. I., and K. Y. Vinnikov, 1976: Global warming. Soviet Meteorology and Hydrology, 7, 12-20.

    Budyko, M. I., K. Y. Vinnikov, O. A. Drozdov, and N. A. Yefimova, 1978: Impending climatic change. Izv. Acad. Sci., USSR, Ser. Geogr., 6, 5-20 (in Russian); English translation: 1979: Soviet Geography, XX, 7, 395-411.

    Charney, J. G., A. Arakawa, D.J. Baker, B. Bolin, R.E. Dickinson, R.M. Goody, C.E. Leith, H.M. Stommel and C.I. Wunsch, 1979: Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment. National Academy of Science, 22 pp.

    Cooper, C.F., 1978: What might man-induced climate change mean? Foreign Affairs, 56, 500-520.

    Hoyt, D.V., 1979: An empirical determination of the heating of the Earth by the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect. Nature, 282, 388-390.

    Landsberg, H.E., 1970: Man-made climatic changes. Science, 170, 1265-1274.

    Mason, B.J., 1978b: Review lecture: Recent advances in the numerical prediction of weather and climate. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences, 363, 297-333.

    Mercer, J.H., 1978: West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster. Nature, 271, 321-325.

    Miles, M.K., 1978: Predicting temperature trend in the Northern Hemisphere to the year 2000. Nature, 276, p. 356.

    Pales, J.C. and C.D. Keeling, 1965: The Concentration of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in Hawaii. J. Geophy. Res., 70, 6053-6076.

    Ramanathan, V., 1975: Greenhouse effect due to chlorofluorcarbons: climatic implications. Science, 190, 50-52.

    Ramanathan, V., and James A. Coakley, Jr., 1978: Climate Modeling through Radiative Convective Models. Reviews of Geophysics and Space Physics, 16, 465- 489.

    Rasool, S.I., and S.H. Schneider, 1971: Atmospheric carbon dioxide and aerosols: Effects of large increases on global climate. Science, 173, 138-141.

    Rasool, S.I. and S.H. Schneider, 1972: Aerosol concentrations: Effect on planetary temperatures, (Exchange of Letters) Science, 175, p. 96.

    Reck, R.A., 1975: Aerosols and polar temperature change. Science, 188, 728-730. Report of the Study of Critical Environmental Problems, 1970: Man’s Impact on the Global Environment. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, Cambridge, 319 pp.

    Rotty, R.M., 1979: Atmospheric CO2 consequences of heavy dependence on coal. Environmental Health Perspectives, 33, 273-283.

    Sagan, C., O.B. Toon and J.B. Pollack, 1979: Anthropogenic albedo changes and the Earth’s climate. Science, 206, 1363-1368.

    Sawyer, J.S., 1972: Man-made Carbon Dioxide and the “Greenhouse” effect. Nature, 239, 23-26.

    Schneider, S.H. and C. Mass, 1975: Volcanic dust, sunspots, and temperature trends. Science, 190, 741-746.

    Schneider, S.H., 1975: On the carbon dioxide−climate confusion. J. Atmos. Science, 32, 2060-2066.

    Sellers, W.D., 1969: A global climatic model based on the energy balance of the Earth- Atmosphere system. J. Applied Meteorol., 8, 392-400.

    Sellers, W.D., 1973: A new global climatic model. J. Applied Meteorol., 12, 241-254.

    Sellers, W.D., 1974: A reassessment of the effect of CO2 variation on a simple global climatic model. J. Applied Meteorol., 13, 831-833.

    Stuiver, M., 1978: Atmospheric carbon dioxide and carbon reservoir changes. Science, 199, 253-258.

    Sullivan, W., 1975a: Scientists ask why world climate is changing; major cooling may be ahead. New York Times, 21 May, p. 92.

    Sullivan, W., 1975b: Warming trend seen in climate; two articles counter view that cold period is due. New York Times, 14 August, p. 24.

    Wang, W.C., Y.L. Yung, A.A. Lacis, T. Mo and J.E. Hansen, 1976: Greenhouse effects due to man-made perturbations of trace gases. Science, 194, 685-690.

    Wilcox, H.A., 1975: Hothouse Earth. Praeger Publishers, New York, 181 pp. Will, G.F., 2004: Global Warming?[/color]

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