Errors in IPCC climate science

Terry Dunleavy of the New Zealand Climaye Scoience Coalition makes great sense explaining the potential costs of Kyoto to the NZ economy in the NZ flagship daily press, The New Zealand Herald.

Read what free lance investigative journalist Ian Wishart says, “THE KYOTO CONSPIRACY How Enron hyped global warming for profit”.

The New Zealand Centre for Political Research has several articles questioning the NZ rush to Kyoto. Just two are, “Exposing the Climate Change Agenda” by Dr Muriel Newman and “The IPCC – On the Run at Last” by Professor Bob Carter.

Al Gore Calls Myanmar (Burma) Cyclone a ‘Consequence’ of Global Warming.
Gore claimed global warming is forcing ocean temperatures to rise, which is causing storms, including cyclones and hurricanes, to intensify.
Lets take a look at the FACTUAL EVIDENCE.
First the lower troposphere in the tropics has been COOLING over 16 months.

When we take a closer look, the NASA Earth Observatory has a series of illustrated articles on Cyclone Nargis including this map showing its formation and track.
We see it forming NE of Sri Lanka in late April.
Lets look at Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) for that area in late April, viewing SST global anomaly maps at this NOAA (USA Govt) website.
This anomaly map is from 27 April to 3 May and shows SST’s were if anything slightly cooler than normal.
You can go to this NOAA archive and check back for earlier weekly SST anomaly maps and there are no relevant warm anomalies.
So I say to Al Gore, please Senator Gore, check your facts before speaking to the world.

It is tough news for the warmers but the 16 month long cooling trend continues.

See here for IPCC supporters vainly trying to sound wise while they explain events.

Thats the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Australia.
Yesterday the media ran variants of this story below quoting BoM forecasters - ‘No hope’ of drought-breaking rains for Qld
What a huge about face from the latest BoM Outlook (only 2 weeks old) which is for above average rain over ALL of Queensland for the months May, June, July.
“National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for May to July 2008, issued 23rd April 2008 Higher seasonal rainfall favoured in parts of north & east Australia”.
Thus it appears Professor Andrew Vizard from Melbourne is correct when he says BoM three month Outlooks are often “totally useless”.
It has been apparent to me for years that BoM Outlooks are a waste of money and should be stopped and the BoM has the nation believing predictions of global warming for decades into the future.
An Alice in Wonderland situation indeed.

This is the opinion of Bruce Haigh, writing an article about the future effects of climate change, Weather the Weather, at newmatilda.com Bruce Haigh is a retired Diplomat who now farms near Mudgee; he irrigates grapes and olives. Bruce writes and comments on domestic and international affairs; he regularly presents at conferences, seminars and training sessions in relation to water issues and strategic planning.
I am bringing some rainfall data to Bruce’s attention.
I am fascinated to hear what readers think of this idea about Australia becoming a military dictatorship.

Bloomberg news service quoting the German Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences saying that, “Parts of North America and Europe may cool naturally over the next decade, as shifting ocean currents temporarily blunt the global-warming effect caused by mankind”. At the UK Met Office HQ for Global Warming Gurus, the Hadley Centre, Research scientist Richard Wood, says “Natural variations over the next 10 years might be heading in the cold direction,” Wood said. “If you run the model long enough, eventually global warming will win.”
Note: At the Leibniz site, follow link on right hand side to, “New Nature Paper: Will global warming take a short break ?”

Thanks to Harold from Seminole Florida for the lead to these articles. As he says, “UN is waffling and spinning on cooling ?”, exactly Harold.

The Federal Minister in Australia that is.
Dear Minister Wong,
I note your press release re the Governments newly released $12.9Billion water plan.
The water plan will, sadly, fail to deliver value to Australia because it repeats the same mistakes that have dogged water policy for over a decade now.
Many years of Green anti-dam dogmas given prominence in the media, have tended to inhibit water utilities and Govts. from augmenting or building additional dam sources. This has led to inadequate planning for new supplies and continues to blight Australian water policies. More recently, pessimistic climate predictions from CSIRO, often recycled by media-prominent doomsters and naysayers, has led to policymakers moving away from natural water supplies. The reality of rainfall data going back to the late 19th Century usually tells us that the recent dryer years post 2000 are no worse than earlier dry periods.
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NASA has just drawn our attention to their interesting map of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) anomaly for April 14–21. As NASA says, “…while the La Niña was weakening, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation—a larger-scale, slower-cycling ocean pattern—had shifted to its cool phase.”

This issue is important to the “greenhouse” debate and arguments over the causes of “global warming” because the ~1976 PDO shift to more positive anomalies can be seen clearly as a warming jump in many long term temperature data. A warming jump that looks unlikely to be caused by small steady increases in the trace gas, atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Much is written on the PDO and just 2 other pages include “The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)” with a long term graphic of monthly anomalies and, “A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production”

This is the claim of Peter Ravenscroft who has a web page including a graphic showing the relationship between core-mantle magnetic flux and a proxy ice core temperature record going back 800,000 years.

He also says that evidence indicates this theory can explain the warming we are all aware of in Siberia and the Antarctic Peninsular.

In a welter of breathless press articles the Australian media touched the forelock to the latest from Lord Nicholas Stern’s latest puff trying to frighten us all about Global Warming following his last effort in October 2006. The first subject he addresses is claiming the oceans are increasingly saturated with CO2 and will be able to absorb less. It is tough luck for Lord Stern, who should check basic data,

that global oceans have cooled since his October 2006 report. But our media are too ignorant and diehard Green to publish these pertinent facts. CO2 is not rising as fast this year either, due probably to the cooler oceans.
See my November 2006 post; Lord Lawson comments on scaremongering “Stern Report”
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