The NZ climate prediction maestros look to have dropped another dodgy one – to my untrained eye anyway.
Stuff says – Live: Christchurch declares state of emergency, orders evacuation as floods rise – and the NZ Herald with hopeless front page – Winter storm chaos: What you need to know
If I read the COLA forecast right – more rain this coming week. Not long since – NIWA 3 month Outlook destroyed inside two weeks 11 Mar 2017
I had Lance staying overnight and this subject came up – me opining after watching too much ABC TV news for years – that some site must have hit the 50° in the last several years. When Lance pointed out on BoM pages that the last 50° plus was in 1998 – I felt somewhat conned. We searched Google and sure enough we found this article “The proof Australia is getting hotter” – which includes this rather specific claim – Quote “While Western Australia had a cooler than average year in 2016, some parts of the giant state did hit 50 degrees, Australia’s observation of such heat a first in two decades.” Well if 50 was hit it was not noticed in official BoM daily data. Screen saved. What an amazing lie – “fake news” indeed. Part of my conning was BoM news early in 2013 of the extension of temperature scales up into the 50’s. Oddly this neat animated map from Feb 2016 does not extend to cool temperatures around -10 that are quite common this winter. What other plus 50’s (122F) are there that the BoM should recognize?
AEMO “Average Daily Prices – Current Month” littered with dogs-balls errors – marked by pink “E”. Large vers screenshot
Is anybody else sick to the teeth of high paid Govt orgs harming Australia?
First time I have noticed negative price from Qld – minus $1,000 MW 3.20am 13 July 2017 – tick “QLD” on left and “5 Min” on right. Who knows why? Just more Govt madness. Not uncommon lately to get negative price periods in Tasmanian data. NEM Dispatch Overview always worth checking – see how Qld is the “anchorman” of our grid. NemWatch gives a generation snapshot.
Australian Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg states “In Queensland, over the first five months of this year, electricity consumers paid the highest wholesale prices in the NEM, 30 per cent above the average.”
That statement may be technically true but the chart of AEMO daily prices shows it to be misleading. In fact Qld prices were only notably higher than other States during two price spikes in January and February – for the more than four months post 24 Feb 2017 Qld prices have been subdued compared to the other four States in the Eastern Grid.
Starting the chart on 1st Sep 2016 to clear the price spikes relating to the closure of the Port Augusta coal fired generators – NemWatch – AEMO Price-Demand charts – AEMO Raw daily RRP wholesale price data – NEM Dispatch Overview – Larger version chart
We have all seen the news blitz – SA Government announces Tesla will build 100MW giant battery as part of its energy security plan 7 Jul 2017 – Elon Musk says the battery has a capacity of 129MWhrs – I am hoping for answers to the following questions – and there may well be others.
A – How many MWhrs will the wind-farm have to generate and be paid for to store 129MWhrs in the battery?
This should reveal the percentage efficiency for the charging of the battery calculated as 129/MWhrs required to charge battery. Another forum Q! & A re battery charging losses.
B – We heard that the battery requires cooling so what is the heat loss expressed in MWhrs over time when the battery is charging? and discharging? Those heat losses must be known.
C – When fully charged and assuming no load – what is the percentage electricity leakage loss per hour for the battery standing idle waiting to work?
D – When the battery is required to use the stored electricity to say meet a peak power shortage in Adelaide – where most demand is – What percentage of the electricity will be lost in discharge and in the 216kms of transmission to Adelaide including losses in voltage stepups and stepdowns normally a part of electricity transmission.
E – I hope the cost is fully revealed in time so the great success can be comprehensively explained to the masses.
F – It would be informative to see an analysis of the effectiveness of the “Salisbury battery storage trial” where at least 100 batteries have been installed at Adelaide homes as at the end of 2016.
I am wondering if in all the process from A to D – would even 50% of the energy input at A ever make it through the battery to consumers in Adelaide?
A reader in Bunbury put me on to this article by John Barrington “State needs long-term vision for agriculture” published in The West Australian (but apparently not on the www). If anybody can find a link please pass on. The chart of WA wheat production history is mine –
I thought I had better point out that something is going right in WA agriculture. To read article click Continue reading Western Australia needs long-term vision for agriculture
Minus 10.4 degrees C was recorded originally at GOULBURN AIRPORT AWS (070330) which was filed by blogger Lance who noticed the BoM rapidly altered this to -10. Jennifer Marohasy blogged on the issue 4 July and passed the info on to a journalist who asked the BoM if they could explain. BoM said they have a “QC” auto function clipping off extremes in case there are errors. And this caused the reset to -10°. JM blogs again on 5 July. This revelation of raw data trimmimg is brand new to many of us who monitor BoM data – but OK thats what the BoM says happened. Jo Nova is also onto the issue. Lance and I checked BoM AWAP maps for NSW daily minimum temperature and noticed the contouring was hugely in error when checked against actual minimums. I have NSW daily minimum temperature maps offline for the 1st July – 2nd July and 3rd July. Just looking at data from the Southern Tablelands region (the white O circles the Goulburn and Canberra localities.) Goulburn is in the wrong contour zone all 3 days. Canberra Airport should be well into the -6 to -9 zone on all 3 days – yet it is always plotted on the boundary of the -3 to -6 and -6 to -9 zones. Always wrong. Taralga about 40km NNE of Goulburn (approx marked white T) read -7° on the 1st & 2nd yet the correct -6 to -9 degrees zone boundary is way too far west on those days. Yass recorded -8.7 on the 2nd yet the contouring has Yass in the next warmer zone. Likewise Cooma on the 3rd should be in the -6 to -9 zone but is shown in the next warmer zone. I expect readers might find errors in other parts of the State – or in other States
With so many errors I wonder what purpose these maps can be fit for. On the issue of the BoM clipping sub -10° readings back to an even -10. Lance mentioned to me these very cold reading from Goulburn Aero Club 70210 in July 1971 – down to -13.9°. Cop that 14 days of frosts in 1971!! Worth noting too the all time coldest Canberra Airport min was -10 on 11 Jul 1971. So setting -10 as an alarm was somewhat odd and without sound scientific foundations – but Hey!! it is the BoM.
Wholesale prices high for this time of day between the peaks – does anybody know why? Plenty of wind in SA – Vic coal fired is missing some generation – often ~4600MW.
Still way down compared 2012 peaks in 800’s.