In the BBC article – Australia’s Queensland hit by record drought – they say “Queensland received little rain in February, which is normally the wettest month of the year, local officials say.”
Mad – here is BoM map showing percentage of average rain that fell in February. Make various BoM maps yourself.
Here is media release from Queensland Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry The Honourable John McVeigh Friday, 7th March, 2014 – “The largest area of Queensland ever drought declared”
Not a reliable guide to the rain that fell over Queensland last month. I commented a few days ago on this issue.
Hardly enough to worry Vale, BHP or RIO –
Mexican police seize 119,000 tonnes of iron ore mined by drug lords
Cecilia Jamasmie – 4 March, 2014
Why has it taken so long for Australia to elect a PM who will state this obvious fact? Tony Abbott says too much Tasmanian forest ‘locked up’, forms new council to support timber industry -
Foresters are the real carers of the bush – not the Greens.
Not only is the PM a rainmaker…
ABARES is the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences – they are having their annual conference on 4 – 5 March.
The ABC has just posted this story – Drought takes its toll on the soil -
Featuring this map which compares the upper layer soil moisture from January 2014 with readings for the past 100 years.
Why not update the map following good rains in February in western Queensland and parts of New South Wales. Surely with the combined talents of ABARES – CSIRO – BoM they could have done that.
Would have changed their entire story – making the map compare late Feb 2014 soil moisture to the past 100 years would have resulted in smaller areas of scary brown patches.
Just think of the combined salaries.
Solar Update March 2014 by David Archibald
With Solar Cycle 24 maximum in March 2013 (see the heliospheric current sheet tilt angle in Figure 5 below) and a one year lag between solar activity and neutron count, we have probably seen the minimum neutron count for this cycle. The minimum count is well above the minimum value for Solar Cycle 20.
In terms of neutron count, Solar Cycle 24 isn’t much weaker than the previous four cycles at a similar stage of development.
What is really interesting is what has happened to the solar wind flow pressure. Despite a high sunspot number and F10.7 flux for this cycle, in January 2014 the solar wind flow pressure fell to a new low of 1.2 nPa for the instrumental record. With another 10 years of solar cycle fall time ahead of us, this suggests that the neutron count is going to be impressive by the end of the decade.
Similarly, despite high sunspot numbers and F10.7 flux values, the Ap Index appears to be in a new regime with current values around the previous apparent floor level of activity for the instrumental record.
Based on the heliospheric tilt angle, Solar Cycle 24 maximum was in Carrington rotation 2134, which is March 2013. With the Solar cycle 23/24 minimum in December 2008, Solar Cycle 24 rise time was 4 years and three months.
The F10.7 flux is having a new peak of activity.
As with the solar wind flow pressure and Ap Index, the interplanetary magnetic field appears to be in a new regime in Solar Cycle 24 in which peak activity is at about the level of the previous floor of activity.
Solar Cycle 24 had been tracking Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum, quite closely in terms of monthly sunspot number. It is now somewhat stronger at the same stage of the cycle.
Livingstone and Penn’s forecast of a Solar Cycle 25 maximum amplitude of 7 is still the only prediction of the size of that cycle from the solar physics community. We are still a few years out before solar poloidal field strength can be used to estimate the size of the next cycle.
Of 54 predictions of Solar Cycle 24 peak amplitude, the six at the bottom of the range could be considered to be in the ball park of the achieved result. This suggests that the solar physics community’s understanding of the Sun, and thus climate, has the potential to evolve further. From: Pesnell, W.D., Predictions of Solar Cycle 24, Solar Phys., 252, 209-220, 2008
NOAA NASA SWO sunspot number way highest for the cycle -
Current number from Solar Influences Data analysis Center – RWC Belgium – Royal Observatory of Belgium – for the RI sunspot data.
Solarham pages with current data on our sun – Jan Alvestad – incl current month progress.
Earlier in February media weather reports were carrying hints and winks that Canberra was “on track” for the “hottest summer evah”. Sadly for the warmists the Australia wide cooling towards the end of summer will have had the usual suspects combing through data assiduously searching for a record anything to trumpet from somewhere.
We will see.
The ABC page – Interactive: 100 years of drought in Australia – should open in a separate window.
Here is a chart of Australian rain anomalies 1900-2013 – it is obvious that the much ballyhooed Millenium Drought was a pussy of a drought Australia wide compared to the obviously dry years from 1910 right up to 1970.
Here is the ABC “drought bar” -
And you can see it must have been very subjectively constructed to show the Millenium Drought in such a bad light. I fully realize it is possible to argue about how bad some years were in various regions – there might be bad starts to the crop season. But the ABC map is of all Australia – so I am putting up a chart of all Australian rain to compare.