Errors in IPCC climate science

I am sure this is not rare – the BBC reports – Snow and winds of 65mph hit Devon and Cornwall. While our TV news last night carried video of snow in the NSW Alps. And I see the Canberra blog RiotACT has photos of snow yesterday in the ACT ranges near Canberra.

The Gillard GreenLabor Govt is putting up this referendum question re recognising local councils in the constitution – at the same time as the Federal election. Ostensibly because some High Court decision might, note might make it difficult for the Federal Govt to give money to councils. Wow – I am sleepless at night over that.
I notice over at Catallaxy – Another poison pill for Australian federalism, and how to avoid it – marvellous take from Dr Julie Novak
I will be voting NO.
My simple reasons are -
[1] The current system has worked for 110 years – I see no need for change – just not an issue.
[2] The Gillard GreenLabor Govt is arguably the worst Federal Govt in our history – so why trust anything they propose.
[3] They would not be proposing this if it was not beneficial to Labor constituencies in some way – we are suffering five to six years of that – safer to just vote NO.
[4] I am wary of unintended consequences – the instant this becomes law there will be silver-tongued lawyers all over it, not to mention the High Court and nobody knows what new nonsense will start affecting our lives.
[5] Personally I would prefer it if councils cut back on their ever expanding empire building and wasting of our money and were confined more to just fixing roads, collecting rubbish, working hard to reduce rates.
[6] I am not impressed that the coalition are supporting a yes vote, there is a lot wrong with their policies too.
[7] The only important issue at the next Federal election is voting GreenLabor OUT of power.

Looking forward to readers having their say.

The comment by CP on my 2007 article -There never was a rain shortage to justify seawater desalination for Perth’s water supply – has prompted me to post the May 2012 reply from WA Minister The Hon Bill Marmion.
First – here are some relevant links – 2002 article in The West Australian Water bosses snubbed plan
This page has a graphic showing the effect of thinning – third graphic down.
“Effects of catchment thinning at Higgins near Dwellingup from WC online report”
Reply from the WA Govt Water Corporation to an article in the Rockingham local paper June 2005 The Sound Telegraph – thats Cockburn Sound.

On 14 March 2012 I emailed the WA Minister -
Dear The Honourable Bill Marmion,
You should know that Perth dam catchments are blessed with rainfall averaging over 900mm per year – and that is just in the May to October runnoff season.
Yet by decades of not managing catchment vegetation efficiently your water supply authorities are progressively decommissioning your network of dams – great facilities mostly put in place by the sweat, foresight and prudence of earlier generations.
This graphic demonstrates the relentless loss in catchment efficiency.

I have more online with my article “2011 update 37 year Perth dams catchment rainfall trend – nearly a Thousand GL of water wasted over 15 years by not managing catchments”
Please make sure you checkout my 3 page word doc linked at my online article;
“There never was a rain shortage to justify seawater desalination for Perth’s water supply”
December 4th, 2007
To improve the resilience of the Perth water supply using the most environmentally friendly and low cost methods – here is what you could do Minister.
[1] Order that dam catchment vegetation be managed so as to aim for a catchment efficiency figure of near 6%.
[2] Order that the Gnangara pines be cut forthwith in favour of native bush – the pines value as saw logs is probably less than the value of the Gnangara Mound water that they are wasting, taking water values as per the average of your desalination plants.
I would suggest that after those measures take full effect – dam levels should recover to where you might be able to close down some of your very expensive seawater desalination capacity. That would save many millions of taxpayer dollars.
You should also be able to postpone the expensive venture to tap deeper groundwater. More savings.
Please let me know if you have any questions Minister.
Yours sincerely,

Here is the reply from Minister Marmion.
Dear Mr Hughes
Thank you for your email dated 14 March 2012 regarding the management of
catchment vegetation.

I recognise that vegetation has been contributing to a reduction of inflow into surface water reservoirs of Perth’s forested surface water catchments.
A trend in reducing rainfall since the 1970s is also a considerable factor in this reduced catchment recharge . The assertion that rainfall to our dam catchments is over 900mm per year is generally true . However, this rainfall is declining markedly through the south west and is below 900mm in the significant Mundaring Weir catchment.
It should also be noted that rainfall reduction and streamflow to dams is not a linear relationship.
Once groundwater disconnects from the streams there is a significantly greater reduction in streamflow.

A recent study by the CSIRO (currently in review , pending publication) has found that the denser vegetation in Perth ‘s forested catchments is responsible for approximately one-third of the run off decline to our reservoirs. The remainder is mainly attributable to rainfall decline.

The Department of Water (DoW) has been researching this issue for some time and has also been working with other agencies and researchers on options to address
vegetation management issues . A prime example is the DoW and Water Corporation’s Wungong Catchment Thinning Trial, which is investigating the impacts of increased forest thinning on improving surface water catchment recharge in Perth’s forested water catchments.

The DoW has also contributed to the development of the Department of Environment
and Conservation ‘s (DEC) next Forest Management Plan regarding the issue of forest vegetation management and its impact on forested surface water catchments. I understand the draft plan is expected to be available for public comment by late 2012.

The DoW is also coordinating a scientific review of the rehabilitation option for mine bauxite rehabilitation in the northern jarrah forest to inform future practice.
You may also be interested in the following CSIRO report which provides information on current and future water yields of both aquifers and surface’water catchments,

www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships/Water-for-a-Healthy-Country-Flagship/Sustainable-Yields-Projects/SWSY.aspx.

I appreciate your interest and demonstrated concern for the future of Perth’s water supply.
Yours sincerely
HON BILL MARMION MLA
MINISTER FOR ENVIRONMENT; WATER
11 May 2012

There have been reports on increased sunspot activity in April and the Cycle 24 peak has been widely predicted to be in the next few months.
The RI number just out from Solar Influences Data analysis Center – RWC Belgium – Royal Observatory of Belgium is a tad below what I was expecting.

The chart has both April updates now. – The SWO SS# is 112.8 for April.
There is an issue that with modern technology we are counting smaller and smaller sunspots than was possible hundreds of years ago. So the sunspot time series are probably not homogenous. A reader has sent in this YouTube clip which explains some of the issues for those not up to speed with solar science.

Topher and Lord Christopher Monckton are combining on a project making a DVD.
Donations would be very welcome.

Guest article by Ed Thurstan – April 28, 2013
Abstract
The second release of ACORN-SAT confirms my 2012 contention that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology this temperature database should be withdrawn. The gross arithmetical errors it displayed in 2012 that were generated by the BoM’s data refining processes are still evident in the latest release. This indicates that the BoM either has not checked the product as stated, or they do not care that their errors are on public display.
Yet the BoM are using this database to support public statements about the climate, extreme temperature events and possible future trends.
Read full article in 600KB pdf

My eye was caught by this ABC article – Eyes skyward for farmers waiting on rain – and the quote from the WA Premier “The Premier Colin Barnett has ruled out a bailout, saying some producers should consider walking away from their farms if they are no longer viable.”
I was curious to see long term rain trends for Merredin -
Annual rain –

and Winter rain

Recent numbers are similar to those from 1900 to before WWI – same pattern we see in Perth rain history – see chart in comments here.
Note Merredin data is only from 1903 – I added Burracoppin data to get back to 1900.
Here is another article – from The Australian 5 March – Farm exodus as drought sows seeds of despair – they choose to show a 36 mon rain decile map.
Map contrasting 36 and 24 month rain abundance.

Note that if you make the same map of rain deciles as in the article – but change the setting to 24 months not 36, the areas of average and above average rain are larger in the WA wheat belt. Remember “white” on the map is average rain. I note the farmers comments that they do not get rain when they need it and that summer rain has increased. Here are monthly rain totals from 2000

And the WA annual wheat crop from 1993

April to October rain -

Following on from my June 2012 post – Great Australian open borders experiment – come on down –
Well the great Australian no borders experiment is still running. The monsoon season dropped numbers in the summer but monthly numbers climbed sharply in March and could challenge the Nov 2012 record when April is complete.
Updated again 2 May using 3436 total for month to date from Michael Smith blog
Updated 28 Apr using 2899 total for month to date from Andrew Bolt blog
quoting a 27th Apr article in The Australian

I would not be surprised if at some point a radically larger ship is sourced – some cheap old freighter headed for the scrapyards might be cranked up and used to ferry a whole months arrivals on its last voyage.
Notes re numbers
up to June 2012 my own research
July to Dec 2012 Andrew Bolt Blog
2013 Jeff of FNQ at Michael Smith
When I get time I will work through Govt announcements and build my own totals again.

As reported by the ABC – Antarctic melting 10 times faster than 600 years ago -
The paper is paywalled at Nature here. Abram et al 2013 – Acceleration of snow melt in an Antarctic Peninsula ice core during the twentieth century
I was kindly given a pdf by one of the authors. Being curious to know if the MWP has been detected in the Antarctic I spent 5 seconds with Google and found these summaries at CO2 Science showing that several studies have detected the Medieval Warm Period in the Antarctic and also around the Antarctic Peninsula. The tip of which is not within the Antarctic Circle.
This chart is from the last Figure in Abram et al 2013. Figure 4 Antarctic Peninsula temperature over the past millennium. a, 11-year moving average of JRI annual temperature anomaly (green) with Gaussian kernel smoothing filters at 5-, 10-, 20-, 30-, 40- and 50-year bandwidths (grey)

I find it interesting that their 1000 year temperature record from James Ross Island does not show a clear Medieval Warm Period.

Japanese scientist Kyoji Kimoto proposes that there is a long standing error in IPCC AGW theory.
According to IPCC’s AGW theory,Climate Sensitivity CS (With Feedback WF) is expressed as follows.
CS(WF)=CS(No Feedbck NF)x(Feedback effects)=1.2K x 2.5=3K

In IPCC theory, it is the most important postulation that CS(NF) is 1.2K,
which is based on Cess’s calculation having mathematical error – for details downbload 76KB 6 page pdf report.
From energy budget of the earth,CS(WF) is 0.2-0.5K instead of 3K,
which coincides with obsevational CS(WF) of 0.2-0.8K by other methods.

Other posts on this blog along similar subjects.
IPCC models have failed to correctly deal with changes in air density – 2011 by Canadian Dean Brooks
Recent Evidence for Reduced Climate Sensitivity – March 2008
Hoyt,D., 2007: The collapse of arguments for high climate sensitivity.
How MINISCULE is the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect ? – 2006 – Sherwood Idso’s 1998 paper online.
A Critical Examination of Climate Change – Dr Doug Hoyt 2005