My chart shows the damage caused to electricity wholesale prices by a few days of normal summer peak heat – which luckily were mainly on weekends and holidays.
I notice that Sydney gas prices right now at 9.5 are way over December at 7.4 and I trust the PM is speaking to gas company bosses. Vic gas market maybe never got the Turnbull phone call. I also notice that Vic coal generation is running at max ~4,400 to 4,600MW 24/7 these days. Machinery eventually breaks down. I see there were 50,000 homes blacked out across Vic yesterday and Vic Labor pollies are trying to say supply was not the problem. It seems obvious that with supply strained near the limit this would require more fiddle-faddling and jiggery pokery by grid authorities than if they had Hazelwood on line say and could have been ~1,500MW more relaxed about meeting the demand. They were assisted too by wind in SA picking up at peak demand time in Adelaide. AEMO electricity and NemWatch for a generation snapshot. Link to 5 charts of electricity price histories.
Shades of Baldrick. In a nutshell they propose arm waving swaths of renewable energy zones REZ’s. In Vic and NSW I counted 11 new hydro generation sites – do these require dams? Mad.
Even turning to geothermal – which has seen hundreds millions wasted $’s.
Imagine the NIMBY’s that will be stirred up by these dam proposals – stacks of wind farms near Sydney. Large map.
Mass sackings would help and appoint some Australian electrical engineers.
The Integrated System Plan Consultation pdf has some other interesting charts to be checked later.
The AEMO daily price for 18Jan18 for South Australia was $1,074 per MWhr which was the highest since $1,492.16 on 8Feb17 no surprise there. But Victoria yesterday recorded a stunning $905.22 which is 4.6 times the previous highest of $195.67 on 10Feb17. You can toggle between SA & Vic at this AEMO page and also choose between 30min and 5min price views. Then the NEM Dispatch Overview.
This record Vic price clearly reflects reduced generation post the closure of Hazelwood.
A couple of charts from the GridPublicKnowledge www pages for SA and Vic gives an idea what was happening yesterday with our stressed power grid. NemWatch gives a snapshot of generation sources.
I also kept the SA screen for the 17th. Similar heat is forecast for Adelaide and Melbourne today but a late cool change is due which should be earliest in SA. I understand this heat is moving into NSW and Penrith has 40 forecast for today through to Monday. Will try and follow the effect of this on the NEM.
My chart of 10 day smoothed daily AEMO prices shows that Tasmania has been the NEM price pusher for over a month now and was also near the top of the price skein through much of 2017.
My attention was guided to Tasmania by seeing our PM on TV news offering Commonwealth largesse in Hobart and he mentioned Tasmanian renewable energy and the “Battery of the Nation” project that he seems smitten by. Note there is a State election looming and the Liberal Govt is behind in polls. “Battery of the Nation” seems to be a scheme for the State to bludge more money out of Canberra to increase wind power, pumped hydro and general hydro. Facts are Tasmania is a large importer of power now with average net imports of 5,761 MWhrs per day which is ~23% of demand (see figures in Table for Mar and Apr 2017).
So a fiscally sensible Fed. Govt. would say to Tasmania – look you are big importers of electricity now so you are far from being the “Battery of the Nation” in fact you are one of the “importers of the Nation”. Contact us again when you develop your own projects and your electricity supply situation is near import/export neutral.
I am trying to get data for all 2017. Does anybody have costings for the “Battery of the Nation” boondoggle which is probably on a par with Snowy 2.0 in the $5 to 10Bn range of extra Commonwealth debt.
This Christmas-New Year there has not been a huge synchronised price hike across the eastern States like there was last year – that is the good news. With a hot weekend on us gas prices have spiked – PM should pick up the phone again. The general decline in prices after summer demand passed has been helped by the PM and Ministers yakking the subject but they need to keep talking this year. Good news could be improved if the Feds took over Liddell to ensure that asset could be productive for as long as economically possible in the national interest. Not remaining a plaything of the interest of AGL.
A puzzling feature of my price chart is that tiddler Tasmania with all their hydro is so often the price pusher – why is this so? My suspicion is that the answer is related to their monster hydro debt but whatever – they should be put back in their box. AEMO and NemWatch – Large version chart.
We canned “CCS” years ago when it was deserved. Video memories and Puzzle of the missing cap rock But it is interesting that near a decade after Kev747 kicked off his Global CCS Institute – CO2 from Vic coal fired electricity (CarbonNet Project) apparently can not be pumped into nearby empty oil and gas reservoirs in Bass Strait where there must be many pipelines and wells already in place. What the hell do public servants do?
CO2 can be pumped into mature petroleum wells to maximise recovery – EOR = Enhanced Oil Recovery. Google – enhanced oil recovery (eor) techniques – Aust. Nat. Audit Office report scroll down here to 12 Dec 17
More info on CCS projects check out the Road Map.
Judith Sloan writes in The Australian – Turnbull should dump Snowy 2.0 for clean coal – I have a list of 11 points about pumped hydro and Snowy 2.0 Continue reading Trigger warning Snowy 2.0 is a dog
A bit of show for the One Planet Summit and nosh up in Paris called by Macron. The vast majority of global oilex funds would be from the oil majors. The sum involved said to be about a $Bn would be chickenfeed compared to the drop in oil exploration post the 2014 oil price crash. I read where global rig numbers have halved. All that said it does add to the ever present GreenLeft lawfare and idiot Govt actions against the use of fossil fuels.
Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance say – We are petitioning the government to remove restrictions on energy production. Such as renewable mandates. AND we want the government to get out of the Paris Climate Accord. Sign the ATA petition it only takes a minute or so.
Chart by St Vincent de Paul from ALVISS Consulting – The ABC reports – St Vincent De Paul wants to make your power bills less confusing with energy market shakeup
Almost a year ago I blogged – Australian Government financial disasters – time for an update next month – send in any new ideas.