I checked gas and electricity wholesale prices data for 2017 and the claim in the AFR Monday – South Australia’s power now cheaper than coal-fired states – Ross Garnaut –
Any notion that this is due to some triumph of wind power fails to examine the dominant driver of SA electricity which is gas. The main sources of dispatchable electricity for SA are the Adelaide gas fired power stations. Then there are the interconnectors drawing on Vic coal fired power.
The three large States which are all dominated by coal fired power are all seeing reduced wholesale prices in 2017 as the Feds and Prime Minister attack high power prices.
For what it is worth there has been a divergence last month with SA, VIC and Tas reducing in price. NSW reducing a little and Qld now more expensive than NSW.
AEMO source data – AEMO NEM Dispatch Overview – NemWatch is useful as a snapshot of generation type and demand. There was more wind in September than August but October started with a wind-drought. Large vers chart
There appears to be a huge disconnect here. AEMO schedules 1800MW from Liddell for the next five summers screenshot from AEMO NSW xlsx file.
Yet if you Google “agl liddell” you see a plethora of AGL statements such as.
Liddell power station is “Geriatric” says AGL –
Liddell power station on ‘sliding scale to oblivion’, AGL ays –
AGL has said it is “fighting a losing battle”…at its ageing Liddell power station –
Liddell power station in NSW is seen by its owner as ready to close –
AGL faces a huge daily challenge to keep Liddell coal-fired power station running –
OK, you get the impression. No wonder AGL values Liddell at $0.
Let us get back to the huge disconnect I referred to. Does AGL say one thing to the media and another to AEMO? Or does AEMO just invent scheduled numbers for Liddell? Is there any obligation on AGL to tell the truth to AEMO?
To improve South Australian grid security AEMO made recommendations to keep more “real” generation online. Real = “fossil fuel” which for SA means only gas or diesel. The SA Govt created its Energy Security Target (EST), a key plank of its $550 million energy plan. The EST is in fact a reverse or counter RET – so the EST was a sound move to attempt a bandaid repair of the damage caused by destroying the coal fired power stations in Port Augusta. Now we see the mega-powerful renewables/storage lobby has monstered the SA Govt who have now postponed EST to the outer darkness in 2020. You could not make this storyline up.
Reading down the ABC page time and again I am thinking – “mention the Hazelwood minus 1600MW that Vic has next summer compared to last” – But no – Hazelwood is never mentioned. The author also never makes the link to NSW that just survived a blackout on 10 Feb this year. So next summer SA – Vic – NSW are 1600MW more likely to be in load shedding events compared to last summer – more than ever weather dependent. Mad.
Read the notices for yourself – Here is the reason – five or six hours of forecast prices at negative$1000
As I have said before – Loony-toon. Facts are over decades our elected representatives have destroyed our once well run and cheap electricity system.
Latest daily data to end August. Large chart
Just wanted to get these charts of generation and demand out re the near blackout event last Feb. Full month large chart. Remember Liddell is slated to close early 2022.
3 days large chart. Intro from AEMO report – Keystone cops would have been right at home. In a nutshell – coal gen was off its highs achieved on 5th, 11th and at end of month. Gas was below specs. due mainly low gas supply – ironic for a State with gas exploration bans. Imports were spikey and Hydro were the big heroes in preventing blackouts. Wind ebbed away through the afternoon as of course did tiny solar.
More Continue reading NSW electricity load shedding near blackout 10th Feb 2017
AEMO publish a Generation information page with xlsx downloads for each State. The file for NSW reveals that Liddell near Muswellbrook is open for summer 2022 but closed for winter. What will replace that year round 24/7 generation capacity?
While wind was strong South Australia had a ~quarter of the day on the 22 July 2017 at an AEMO wholesale (RRP) price of minus $60 per MW hour(check SA & 5 Min). In a year of watching AEMO data I have not seen such an extended period of negative RRP price. Now we all know that the gas fired generator(s) that continued working with AEMO RRP at -$60 will not mail cheques out to power consumers. Presumably they were generating to some other undisclosed contract price. Yet the AEMO RRP was drastically lowered across all states on the 22 July. See the Table “Average Daily Prices – Current Month”. Time to talk about re-nationalizing the coal fired generators at least. NemWatch for current generation. For large screen shot.