I see Anthony Watts article on a new paper in Theoretical and Applied Climatology – “Effect of data homogenization on estimate of temperature trend: a case of Huairou station in Beijing Municipality”. Thanks to Springer for making this paper open access. My point here is that this diagram which shows how UHI warming gets fixed into adjusted series –
is telling the exact same story as Hansen et al told in 2001 with these very similar diagrams.
Figure 1 from; Hansen, J.E., R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, M. Imhoff, W. Lawrence, D. Easterling, T. Peterson, and T. Karl 2001. A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 23947-23963, doi:10.1029/2001JD000354
I first mentioned this in Feb 2006 –
GISS/NASA/NOAA graphics illustrate significant UHI truths
Again in Jan 2011 –
Simple GISS diagram illustrating warming effect of conventional “adjustments” of “steps” in T data due to site moves outward from urban centre.
Starting with Jones et al 1986 all the global groups make exactly this error.
Global temperature trends would be more accurately assesed by just gridding the raw data. Leave the steps in – in the absence of all the hard work to adjust out UHI warming – this will produce a trend closest to reality.
Terabytes of IPCC compliant global temperature trends research are not worth a cup full of warm spit. If I had to answer my question – How many times does a truth have to be told ? – I recall a saying somewhere – Green media lies travel like speeding arrow – the truth struggles to swim uphill.
As the predicted Cat 1 Tropical Cyclone approached the Townsville coast I thought it a fair question. Townsville rain radar. I see the track heads inland where presumably any rain will be mostly welcome.
The Australian Antarctic Division (AAD) has revised its shipping schedule due to heavy sea ice conditions adjacent to Mawson research station. My est location marked M – just west of Amery Ice Shelf.
Satellite image from The Cryosphere Today 23 Jan 2014 – there is an animation there.
Midsummer, decades of global warming, sea ice still impeding access to Antarctica.
These 12 month average trends show a strong cyclic influence on Australian temperatures. GISS, GHCN CAMS and NCDC land data are now updated at KNMI.
GISS supports the BoM which finds the 12 month average mean temperature over Australia has been warmer than ever over recent months.
NCDC finds that periods in 2005 and 2010 had a warmer 12 month average.
GHCN CAMS find warmer 12 month periods in 2005.
The two satellite series have warmer periods in the past than late 2013.
At the end of 2013 the BoM trend is under GISS.
Plan to curb Antarctic expeditions after costly rescue of trapped ship – January 23, 2014 – Andrew Darby
A few flags being run up flagpoles here.
AAD still can not count the days the Aurora Australis was held up in ice on the Davis resupply voyage. The ship was impeded on its way in to Davis and on way home – a total of three weeks not 12 days. If they can not get simple arithmetic near right, why should they be trusted with a $180mill budget.
Weatherstreet.com forecast maps indicate much of the USA should expect some brisk weather for 10 days or more. Run mouse along dates at bottom to animate map.
Anthony Watts has an article pointing out that various weather forecast models agree on this.
The BBC’s Gavin Hewitt says – “Thirdly, Angela Merkel’s U-turn. After the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011 the German chancellor took an usually swift decision: Germany moved away from nuclear power and bet its future on renewables.” Interesting that Bloomberg reports “Ten new hard-coal power stations, or 7,985 megawatts, are scheduled to start producing electricity in the next two years, according to information from German grid regulator Bundesnetzagentur and operators.”
This graphic from the IEA shows the mix of electricity generation in Germany as of 2011.
You can see nuclear has been in decline for a few years. The European Nuclear Society says that eight German nuclear plants were shut down in 2011 and in 2012 the nine remaining plants generated near 100TWh or about one sixth of German electricity.
For an up to date view on coal fired electricity generation in Germany – Speigel said two weeks ago – “That means that coal plants are making up for the bulk of the energy production lost due to the 2011 shutdown of eight nuclear plants,…”
Bloomberg say the numbers mean – “The 10 new units will boost German hard coal generation capacity by 33 percent to 32,432 megawatts from 24,447 megawatts as of Oct. 16, regulator data show.” So in the next few years the percentage of German electricity generated from coal could challenge all time highs of 1983.
Funny that Gavin Hewitt and the BBC found it easy not to mention the expansion of coal use – but went on for paragraphs about the small renewables sector.
This was on the ABC TV 7.30 Report Monday 13 Jan 2014
[Alasdair Hainsworth from the Bureau of Meteorology: For this time of year yes, it’s not unusual. The unusual part about it is probably the longevity of the heatwave, particularly through southern Victoria and also Tasmania.
Tasmania receiving four days in a row with temperatures in excess of the mid-30s, high-30s even into southern parts of south eastern Tasmania. That’s really very unusual indeed.
So yeah, the extreme nature of it and the longevity of those extreme temperatures is somewhat unusual.]
Now to check this out click on the various climate districts on the map – does not take long to quickly scroll down through the green rainfall data and check out how those days Tuesday 14th to Friday 17th fared. Mostly there are few temperature stations to eyeball. My impression is that for majority of sites Tuesday was the standout hot day and the next 3 mostly failed the BoM test. Readers will make their own mind up.
Remember this is the same Alasdair Hainsworth who on 18 December predicted – Heatwave expected to hit one-third of Australia over Christmas – a prediction which miserably sunk without trace.
The ABC reports – ACT under total fire ban as mercury soars – quoting Sean Carson from the Bureau of Meteorology who says – “By the time we reach Saturday we might have seen four days in a row in the ACT greater than 40 degrees, something we’ve never seen before in Canberra’s history,”
Bad luck Sean the 4 days 15th to 18th went – 40.2, 40.1, 39.7, 40.
But this does not hold a candle to January 1939 in Canberra at Acton which according to the ABC News Watch analysis – Fact checking the weather man – had five days over 40 with a gap of one day under 40. In 1939 from 10th Jan to 15th incl the readings went; 41.3, 42.4, 39.8, 41.9, 41.9, 40.8. – a six day heatwave I think the 1939 residents would have said and includes our hottest ever day.
So we see an example in the ABC News Watch analysis where warmists conveniently do not know our history.
A year ago a reader sent in this link to an animated map of global wildfires as seen from space. Australian forest fires are only minor in comparison to seasonal fires in equatorial Africa, Southern Africa, South America and many parts of Asia! For a start there are often lightning strike fires over much of Australia, most of these burn themselves out naturally and are just part of the ecology.
Jan 2003 You can see the fire that impacted Canberra but it is minor compared to what is happening elsewhere.
Feb 2009 Black Saturday fires are very minor signatures on a global scale.
Andrew Bolt has asked if we are becoming climate pussies. Given media reporting of bushfire I think you could argue that.