Category Archives: GISS

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Once upon a time in the late 1990’s GISS made tapered adjustments for the urban heat island UHI

I have been digging into my archives and have discovered some of my temperature data downloads from GISS with their tapered UHI adjustments. Here is their work for Melbourne.

Do any readers remembers those efforts by GISS ? I have several more examples I can show later that essentially adjust strongly warming city data to show a near neutral trend. Maybe these tapered UHI adjustments (click for chart of exact adjustments) did not please everybody because post 2000 GISS started making homogeneity adjustments using satellite night lights – I am not sure if that method is still used. In recent years I have tended to lose track of what they do once they started adjusting rural data to agree with UHI affected cities.

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) claiming 2014 was the hottest year ever does not deserve creedence

Global media swoon over the dodgy claim by GISS that 2014 was hottest evah.
GISS have a rich tradition of adjusting temperature data to show more warming –
My animations show how GISS recently adds warming adjustments to Australian data – Melbourne as well as Alice Springs, Adelaide, Broken Hill and Willis Island.
Other articles on GISS going way back.

GISS urban adjusted version for Melbourne Australia from year 2000 compared with 2014 adjusted version

Had to cable up some old HDD’s and made a few interesting discoveries – GISS around 2000 made an attempt to adjust for UHI contamination using a long tapered adjustment – which in retrospect was probably one of the better attempts by any of the big IPCC climate groups to deal with UHI.

Most of them do nothing. I am looking for some data files showing the tapered UHI adjustment.

How many times does a truth have to be told ? – UHI warming has been cemented into global temperature series by adjusting for steps outward from cities

I see Anthony Watts article on a new paper in Theoretical and Applied Climatology – “Effect of data homogenization on estimate of temperature trend: a case of Huairou station in Beijing Municipality”. Thanks to Springer for making this paper open access. My point here is that this diagram which shows how UHI warming gets fixed into adjusted series –

is telling the exact same story as Hansen et al told in 2001 with these very similar diagrams.

Figure 1 from; Hansen, J.E., R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, M. Imhoff, W. Lawrence, D. Easterling, T. Peterson, and T. Karl 2001. A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 23947-23963, doi:10.1029/2001JD000354
I first mentioned this in Feb 2006
GISS/NASA/NOAA graphics illustrate significant UHI truths
Again in Jan 2011
Simple GISS diagram illustrating warming effect of conventional “adjustments” of “steps” in T data due to site moves outward from urban centre.
Starting with Jones et al 1986 all the global groups make exactly this error.
Global temperature trends would be more accurately assesed by just gridding the raw data. Leave the steps in – in the absence of all the hard work to adjust out UHI warming – this will produce a trend closest to reality.
Terabytes of IPCC compliant global temperature trends research are not worth a cup full of warm spit. If I had to answer my question – How many times does a truth have to be told ? – I recall a saying somewhere – Green media lies travel like speeding arrow – the truth struggles to swim uphill.

Comparing new IPCC global map of 1901-2012 temperature trends – with GISS maps for same period

A reader has drawn my attention to this map from page 27/36 IPCC WGI AR5 SPM-1 27 Sep 2013 – I am not sure what dataset is used (probably HadCRUT) – have not found the Technical Summary Supplementary Material yet. Have to say I was not aware such a large area of South America was warming as shown.

Interesting to compare with the GISS maps for the same period – fascinating how the different SST groups treat the Pacific Ocean – but the science is settled of course. This first map uses SST from the GISS combination of Hadley & Reynolds.

The second GISS map uses the NOAA ERSST data.

Fifty ex NASA scientists and engineers tell NASA GISS – “…the science is not settled”.

They say – “We, the undersigned, respectfully request that NASA and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) refrain from including unproven remarks in public releases and websites. We believe the claims by NASA and GISS, that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change are not substantiated, especially when considering thousands of years of empirical data. With hundreds of well-known climate scientists and tens of thousands of other scientists publicly declaring their disbelief in the catastrophic forecasts, coming particularly from the GISS leadership, it is clear that the science is NOT settled.”
Thanks to Marc Morano for the tip.

Landmark EIKE study of global temperature trends 1906-2005 using 2249 GISS stations concludes 0.17 UHI and a non-urban baseline warming only 0.41 degrees

This global study at the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) – How Natural is the Recent Centennial Warming? – is the first that jumps to mind in over two decades by a group sceptical of AGW – that applies statistical analysis to thousands of temperature station data and concludes there is a standout UHI signal.
Andrew Bolt has an article on this – “Climate study: er, what man-made warming?”
I just hope this is the start of a determined research effort that might in the years ahead blunt the harm done to science by over two decades of the UHI infested various CRUTem versions.

Simple GISS diagram illustrating warming effect of conventional “adjustments” of “steps” in T data due to site moves outward from urban centre.

I have been reading the 169 page NIWA pdf – “Report on the Review of NIWA’s “Seven-Station” Temperature Series December 2010” – downloaded here
I have not yet found the BoM review – only the one page letter from the BoM – see pdf page 13 in the above.

I draw readers attention to the excellent little GISS diagrams which perfectly illustrate the warming effect of adjusting out the multitude of step changes which are common throughout all temperature data as thousands of recording sites have been moved outwards in their respective urban areas.
GISS illustrating typical urban T data with a step due to outward site move – before adjustment.
GISS diagram a
GISS illustrating typical urban T data with a step due to outward site move – after adjustment – now with UHI warmed trend built in.
GISS diagram b
Reading their 169 page pdf report above – it is crystal clear that NIWA do exactly this – repeatedly adjusting out step changes – all through their seven station series – in this way NIWA cement UHI warming in their NZ 7 station century long adjusted trend.
PS: I had a little post on this in 2006

NASA GISS data does not back BoM hottest decade claim

The NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has just updated their global temperature land station data to the end of 2009 – so we can make decadal anomaly maps to check on the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) claim that the decade 2000 through 2009 was the hottest ever in Australia.
Eyeballing the area of the various colour ranges should give us an idea if GISS analysis agrees with the BoM. Here are my observations – and I am happy to have readers send in their opinions.
If you Read the rest of this entry, I have the global map for 2000-2009 including the colour scale.
1990-1999 map of decadal temperature anomalies compared to 1951-1980 – the GISS default
GISS Autralian T anomalies
2000-2009 map of decadal temperature anomalies compared to 1951-1980 – the GISS default
[1] First the Brown warmest regions (1 to 2 degrees) are similar in area – I have not counted the pixels. I note that these are mainly in regions where temperature data would not be the greatest.
[2] Pale Brown areas (0.5 to 1 degrees) I think are larger in area on the 1990-1999 map.
[3] The 2000-2009 map has a much larger area which cooled (-0.2 to -0.5 degrees), the Pale Turquoise colour.
Weighing it all up, surely it is fair to say that at the very least, there is no ringing endorsement here for the BoM’s claim.
I think a fair statement would be that given the data quality in the outback – it looks unlikely the 2000-2009 decade could be warmer than 1990-1999 in a statistically significant sense.
I am asking – what is the BoM doing wasting our money making dubious lineball claims like this ?
At a time when there is so much more important real work to do.
For example better weather forecasting one to 2 months ahead.
Fixing the scandalous deterioration of the rainfall and temperature networks.
Continue reading NASA GISS data does not back BoM hottest decade claim