Web footed Kiwis are emailing me as Christchurch and regions floods again. Whenever I have read NIWA Outlooks they seem utterly useless – does anybody get value for all the $Millions of Kiwi taxpayer dollars? Can anybody report where NIWA Outlooks have been accurate? Must get it right sometime.
The NZ climate prediction maestros look to have dropped another dodgy one – to my untrained eye anyway.
Stuff says – Live: Christchurch declares state of emergency, orders evacuation as floods rise – and the NZ Herald with hopeless front page – Winter storm chaos: What you need to know
If I read the COLA forecast right – more rain this coming week. Not long since – NIWA 3 month Outlook destroyed inside two weeks 11 Mar 2017
Just as useless as our BoM – the NIWA March to May Outlook issued 1st March wrecked by heavy rain they never saw coming. They said –
Regional predictions for the March – May 2017 season
Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty
Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be in the near normal (35% chance) or below normal range (40% chance).
The MetService shows that both Auckland and Hamilton had useful rain starting last Tuesday 7th March.
It is disgusting when weather does not obey the predictions of climate alarmists – NZ was to have a dry and hot El Nino summer so the authorities ordered. WeatherWatch analyst Philip Duncan says “It has been a weird summer, all the talk of El Nino hasn’t happened. It’s almost like La Nina, the complete opposite.” Last month NZ weather was mad. Facts are a massive prediction failure for the climate alarmist Govt climate authority NIWA.
A classic from the Fairfax GreenLeft NZ Herald – From heatwave to violent storms: New Zealand’s mad weather – Mad is code for, the NIWA forecasts of hot dry weather caused by El Nino are being shot down but Herald readers are supposed to understand that crazy or in this case mad weather can be caused by “climate change” too.
Amazing that the article does not refer to remnants of Cyclone Ula which is nearing the East Cape region as an ex tropical low pressure system. Map source.
It is not unusual for the remains of cyclones to vent on northern NZ in summer.
Another fascinating example of the baleful influence of climate change dogmas and useless Govt forecasting on normal media reporting standards.
By all accounts the rain was useful in many areas to freshen up grass and give feed growth a summer boost. A subtext is that the NIWA three month Outlooks predict dryer than normal conditions due El Nino – so rain sort of goes against that meme. I like the oracle quoted to explain how it rained because air moved from east to west.
I see another article – Urgent need to act on our water supply – Whaleoil is on to it. It seems anti-dam dogmas are rife in NZ and all manner of special interest groups get into the act to make a needed new dam even more impossible. When will water users start voting for an adequate water supply at an affordable price?
After being pointed to a NIWA page of NZ climate extremes I saw that the hottest ever day in NZ was the 7th Feb 1973 when it was 39.2 at Ruatoria and 42.4 at Rangiora. Curiosity made me check Sydney that month and a ~40 degree heatwave ended on the 6th. Contour map of the Australian max temp anomaly 6 Feb 1973.
Fascinating that the Australian air traveled ~2400 km over the ditch yet retained heat to make 40 across Aotearoa. Yet pro-IPCC dogmas would not admit to UHI warmed air wafting out to the countryside to affect rural stations.
The BoM rates Canberra Airport as a “non-urban” site despite close proximity to booming urban area.
Fascinating new convolutions to explain weather – Where’s the summer weather? Running late – Wind and rain set to continue until Christmas as wintry weather hangs on. Those IPCC compliant climate scientists have to be seen to explain everything.
Good to see this new paper – A Reanalysis of Long-Term Surface Air Temperature Trends in New Zealand – by C. R. de Freitas & M. O. Dedekind & B. E. Brill.
Also great to see them use the Fig 3 twin diagram ex NASA GISS – that I have been drawing attention to for years as absolutely vital.
Climate Conversation Group has a blog yesterday – Paper adds interesting perspective on NZ temperature trend