Fascinating new convolutions to explain weather – Where’s the summer weather? Running late – Wind and rain set to continue until Christmas as wintry weather hangs on. Those IPCC compliant climate scientists have to be seen to explain everything.
Good to see this new paper – A Reanalysis of Long-Term Surface Air Temperature Trends in New Zealand – by C. R. de Freitas & M. O. Dedekind & B. E. Brill.
Also great to see them use the Fig 3 twin diagram ex NASA GISS – that I have been drawing attention to for years as absolutely vital.
Climate Conversation Group has a blog yesterday – Paper adds interesting perspective on NZ temperature trend
This article from Stuff reporting NIWA-talk mentions “A persistent lack of southerlies had a profound impact on the monthly temperatures.”
Or you could say northerly winds brought a flow of warm tropical air over the New Zealand region during June – as shown by this BoM map.
The NZ Herald says – The winter of our content: Warmest-ever June – which mentions June was between 1.8C and 1.9C above normal just beating 2003 which was +1.8C – When global datsets update we can check what they record for June. The NIWA NZ series is heavily adjusted to a warmer trend – explained by Bob Dedekind.
Hackers must be bored and hard up for something to do – Hack attack on Niwa from China IP address – What could be of interest to hackers there? – except the cheap thrill of being inside where they should not be.
On the other hand –
In February 2011 I lodged an FOI request with the BoM to release to me all documents and data connected with their work on the seven station series for NIWA. Included in the reasons for refusal was – “..disclosure would or could reasonably be expected to cause damage to the international relations of
NZ weather data is powerful big-secret.
Maybe the NIWA supercomputer is a portal to Western World secrets.
A few weeks ago I was hearing from Kiwis that summer was slow arriving – I noticed this optimistic story in NZ Herald on 1 Jan 2014 – Perfect summer days likely to follow patchy spell, analysts say. I took a copy to checkout around middle of month. Today I see – Cold front hitting NZ ‘like a freight train’- Brendan Manning – 16 Jan, 2014
Does this mean the perfect summer arrived and now is departing?
Or did the perfect summer not really arrive at all?
Always interested what is happening over the ditch.
I remember as a kid in 40’s n 50’s that my parents knew to holiday late in the NZ summer when weather was more stable.
This set of animated weather forecast maps by USA based WeatherStreet.com suggests that after the weekend the remains of the front could join with a tropical cyclone heading for NZ from direction New Caledonia. Possibility of more weather.
Move your cursor along list of days at bottom.
The BBC is reporting – New Zealand North Island hit by worst drought in 30 years. Curious to see some rainfall graphs I turned to KNMI Climate Explorer but it was not easy getting updated data. The GHCN V2 data assembled by NCDC in the USA has many data gaps post 2004 and ends anyway in March 2011 – see picture below. The CRU data ends at 2009. I wonder why – it still rains here and there – did somebody stop paying their salaries ?
So I turned to a shorter term partly satellite based data set from GPCP to bring the graph up to date at Dec 2012. The GPCP might reflect rain over both land and ocean – but that is what we have.
Note the grid area chosen misses out Southland and much of Otago west of 170°East. New Zealand should have rain data from say the 1860’s – if anybody has up to date station data please let me know – or please pass on URL’s to any published New Zealand rain history graphs.
This is a common feature when researching climate data – to find that recent data are worse than old data.
Perfect from 1900 to 2004 – then gaps abound.
The NZ Herald quotes long time climate expert Dr Jim Salinger in their article today – Heatwave: Scientist tips a scorcher – Another bio for Dr Jim Salinger.
Further down the article NZ MetService and WeatherWatch people say that 40 degrees looks unlikely. I hope some Kiwis can send in temperatures from – “…east of the South Island and southern North Island…”. Here is a site where you can type in a NZ locality and get weather data.
Is this a case of Fairfax media believing some of the over-hyped rubbish about heatwaves in Australia and thinking that it had to be the turn of NZ sometime.
The NIWA vs NZCET court result will be picked apart on more notable blogs than this – however I am curious about a few things in the 49 page “Judgement of Venning J”. My interest is mainly on the Clauses on the subject of the station data. To start though I want to look at Clause 176 – I will be interested to hear what readers think.
My press release from 2006 is still online here.
Here is Clause 176 from the Judgement –
I can not see that Judge Vennings paraphrasing of what Dr Wratt said about contrasting winds before and after 1945 – can have any bearing on the point in my press release which was that two IPCC compliant expert groups (Jones/CRU and NIWA) – both with access to the same database of station data – disagreed greatly about the long term New Zealand temperature trend – over whatever exact period chosen. I was pointing out how the science is not settled.
Wind affects equally the station data used by CRU & NIWA and is not a cause of the CRU – NIWA long-term trend divergence – as Venning J seems to conclude Dr Wratt has shown.
Originally posted Feb 2012 – taken down late March due legal reasons.
For newcomers – about a year ago I lodged a FOI request with the BoM to see documents relating to a “peer review” they had conducted for NIWA and I reported last May when the BoM decided that all the documents were secret.
Then last October I posted a progress report when the BoM found a few more documents from earlier in October 2010 than previous.
I currently have an appeal in with the OAIC.
The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition NZCSC has a long running court action underway against NIWA trying to obtain documents relating to the “official” NZ temperature history. The Climate Conversation site has much information on the court case.
I was sent me several NIWA affidavits from 2011 – the affidavit for 5 July 2011 is noteworthy as it contains some clauses showing that NIWA is trying to be specific about what the BoM has done. I quote from Clause 7 – “….the Bureau did not itself produce any peer review report…”
NIWA is saying that all that took place was a to & fro process of emailed comments and replies about material provided by NIWA – “iterative” as they say at the start of clause 7.
I note in the TM5 undated (April 2011) legal letter from the BoM to NIWA – in 2-2 it says “The review covering letter and final report…”
We have the covering letter public (14 Dec 2010 letter linked above) – but is NIWA now saying about the “final report” – that there is no such thing ?
List of six pdf court documents
Note the odd fact that whoever drafted the NIWA affidavits wrongly labels themselves in clause 1 by stating – “I am the plaintiff’s general counsel” The cover pages show NIWA is the defendant in these proceedings. Anyway – on with the list.
 Letter from NZ Ombudsman to NZCSC knocking them back June 2010.
 My 18 Feb 11 FOI letter to BoM – sent by BoM to NIWA in April – also attached is the 14 Dec 10 BoM public covering letter to NIWA.
 Legal letter from BoM to NIWA asking them for the “right stuff” to help BoM keep all the docs secret in Australia.
 Legal letter NIWA to BoM complying chapter and verse.
 Affidavit from NIWA 1 July 2011
 Affidavit from NIWA 5 July 2011 – with the fascinating clause 7.
Fancy the Kiwis announcing this exactly as Australia takes a huge step in the opposite direction. Our Prime Minister Julia Gillard will be sending her Kiwi counterpart a thank you John message – I am sure.
[The Government has indefinitely postponed key stages of the emissions trading scheme, saying the economic environment means consumers and businesses simply can’t afford it.
The announcement comes as Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s political future hangs in the balance due to the introduction of a carbon tax there this week.
But Prime Minister John Key said his Government’s decision had not been influenced by the political fallout in Australia. Rather, it was acting on concerns the economy would suffer if New Zealand did more than other countries to reduce carbon emissions.
“We’re not prepared to sacrifice jobs in a weak international environment when other countries are moving very slowly,” he said.]