Errors in IPCC climate science

These mean temperature anomaly maps show Australia has experienced moderate temperatures overall for the last 24 months.
Mean temperature anomaly map for 12 months ending 31 October 2011

Mean temperature anomaly map for 12 months ending 31 October 2012

Now we have a hot spell in the centre and the BoM is predicting heat records today for many sites.

My eye was caught by this crawling little headline in the local rag.
“Australia pays ‘fair share’ of climate fund: Oxfam”
Read and enjoy this “tip-of-the-iceberg” evidence of how the GreenLabor Govt is busy scattering our hard earned shekels here there and everwhere.

David Archibald sets out what a Government with Australia’s real interests at heart should be doing to ensure energy security. The seven page pdf is only 120Kb – so go on – download it. David relates energy issues to world history with a nice sweep.
And I do like his advice to – “Repeal all the carbon-related legislation and close the Department of Climate Change”
Yes David – Australia would be more secure and prosperous.

This heads-up from Mike Haseler in sunny Scotland. IPCC head honcho Dr Rajendra K Pachauri whining that – “For the first time in the 18 years of COP, the IPCC will not be attending, because we have not been invited,” he told Gulf Times in Doha. COP18 is to be held from November 26 to December 7.
This will be major sleep-loss event for me.
Is it my imagination or are events getting weirder ?
Maybe the invite is in the mail.

I bet the numbers behind this debacle are horrendous – to get the GreenLabor Govt to act this fast. I see Minister Combet claims – “The overall reduction in 2013 electricity bills is estimated to be in the order of $80 million to $100 million.” So assume 5 million households – only $20 per bill.
What a joke – the damage to our hip pockets from a decade of mad Green electricity schemes is way worse than that. Voters have to vote GreenLabor out then look for a double dissolution to clean out the Senate and campaign for a major slash & burn of all wasteful Green schemes damaging our electricity grid. Nothing less will have a hope of stabilizing electricity bills.

Dr Pat Michaels writing in Forbes last May drew attention to the fact that 33 years of NASA satellite temperature data demonstrates a cooling trend over far southern regions. For global lower troposphere temperature trend map.
Anthony Watts has recently blogged on this topic too.
I thought I would check what IPCC 1990 had to say about future temperature trends – they quoted three models which all showed both poles warming with their colour scale extending to 12 degrees C for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide – great use of “flaming colour scheme”.

Lets say a doubling would see 560ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide as opposed to 280ppm pre-industrialization. On that basis we are ~35% of the way to doubling. It looks like a comprehensive fail for the IPCC in 1990.
Full plate Figure 5.4 a,b & c, – full plate Figure 5.4 d,e & f.

Ref: CLIMATE CHANGE The IPCC Scientific Assessment, 1990 – 360 pages

The SMH peddles this example of scaremongering by taxpayer funded science.
Unfortunately for the authors the last three Autumns have not followed their plan.
Autumn 2010 rain deciles

Autumn 2011 rain deciles

Autumn 2012 rain deciles

The world just not behaving for the warmistas.

This mornings webcam from the ship shows a little clear water off the stern as it works at pushing through pack ice.
See my post from 23 Oct.
Their SitRep pages has them in pack ice in mid October. First reported by the ABC on 23 Oct – has anybody seen a report anywhere else ?
On 31 Oct AAD announced the voyage was delayed.

Let us look at the words in the BoM headlines announcing the last twelve three monthly temperature Outlooks.
I count the word ‘warm’ or ‘warmer’ used NINE times, the word ‘cooler’ was used ONCE and ‘mixed’ was used THREE times.
Here is a map for that same twelve month period

The continent has been mainly cooler than average.
The BoM clearly has a bias towards announcing ‘warm’ events.
I rest my case m’lud.
For list of 12 BoM headlines Read the rest of this entry »

They got the broad shape OK – but temperatures turned out about 5 degrees cooler than the BoM expected.

Now the real world below.

The max temp Outlook still exaggerated expected warmth but was pretty fair for Outlooks, and the rain Outlook was realistic – you can make maps to compare at this BoM page.