Errors in IPCC climate science

I first noticed these claims when the ABC Catalyst TV show (IPCC TV) ran “Taking Our Temperature” in November. I enjoyed the calm statements in the “Catalyst” NARRATION such as – “In fact, it was part of the biggest heatwave to hit Australia’s waters ever. It began just north of Ningaloo Reef, hitting it heartbreakingly with the force of a pot of boiling oil.”
Oh OK, only as hot as boiling oil then !! We will leave Catalyst there.
A few days ago the media has been running with – “WA ocean heatwave linked to shark attacks” – but the most scientific article I can find online is this UWA page from last July – “Unprecedented Indian Ocean heatwave creates melting pot”.
They say – “In the summer of 2010/11, the region experienced the highest seawater temperatures in at least 140 years”. Now taking the region off Perth as 30 to 35 South and 114 to 116 East, just the coastal strip and checking out the HadSST1 SST data at KNMI Climate Explorer; we find that the summer (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 1999-2000 was warmer (1.33 deg) than 2010-2011 (1.27 deg). So, claim shot down or at the very least marginal. The Reynolds SST data confirms that summer of 1999-2000 was warmer than 2010-2011 in that coastal strip off Perth.
To get a little perspective we can look at this global map of SST anomalies and ask what is so special about the warm SST anomalies off WA compared to the warm patch off Angola ?

Would the Angola media be running “ocean heatwave” stories ? Is their marine flora & fauna less worthy than ours ? And how about the large warm anomalies in the SE Pacific and South Atlantic ? – are teams of highly paid marine scientists writing papers about the effects of those large areas warmer ocean on the zillions of micro-organisms to be found there ? Or are they less worthy than marine life near the Perth coast.
Note the cold anomalies in north European seas and all around the USA in their winter 2010-11, some of which are relatively colder than the Perth anomalies are warm. Do cold patches of ocean have less significance for affecting marine life than warm patches ?

Just saw this at ABC online Christmas eve – too busy to respond – I see Anthony Watts with it too.
This neat map and story is at the OurAmazingPlanet.com site.

Unfortunately for the authors of the Nature paper – NASA satellite lower troposphere temperature data by UAH team Spencer & Christy shows cooling over the 1979-2012 period for the 60 degree sector covering West Antarctica with Byrd Station (near 80S – 119W) central.

The trend for the entire zone between 75 & 85 south is also cooling.

A week or so ago my eye was caught by this headline – “Most Canadians should expect a green Christmas: Environment Canada” – and I thought – well they should know, they are the Canadian Weather Office.
Now I see their forecast for 25 December 2012 looks like this -

and I am wondering if there is some parallel universe re temperature units in Canada. Perhaps readers can let us know how much green is around where “most Candians” live as we tick down to Christmas.

Just came across this under-reported gem from Geoscience Australia, I note their disclaimer – “…the length of the time series is too short for reliable vertical station velocity estimation….”
As the years roll on these data should become more reliable guides as to the changes in tide gauge heights. But what they show so far is worth reporting.
Cook Islands – steady

Fiji – steady

Kiribati – down

Manus Islands (PNG) – down

Micronesia – down

Nauru – down

Samoa – steady

Tonga – up

Tuvalu – steady

Vanuatu – down

Marshall Islands – data too short

Anthony Watts has the story that the latest IPCC Second Order Draft of AR5 (the next IPCC report), Working Group 1 (“The Scientific Basis”) acknowledges strong evidence for solar forcing beyond total solar irradiance (TSI)
This quote from AR5 – “The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link.”
The AR5 draft is being leaked here.
Maybe the IPCC might cotton on to the additional reality that our current very weak solar cycle 24 is not exactly portending warmer times.

Recent media publicity around a “State of Australian Cities” report has beaten up claims that Perth sea-levels are rising at three times the global average, or near 10mm per year. A matter that Federal Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese described as “disturbing and extraordinary”. Chris Gillham shows that the claims in the State of Australian Cities report re Perth sea level rise are over-hyped.
This chart fom a 2010 WA Govt planning report shows long term sea level changes at Fremantle.

The State of Australian Cities report concentrates on shorter term more sensational trends in the last 20 years but omits to quote recent research measuring rapid subsidence of large areas of the Perth coastal plain.
A 2012 paper – Anthropogenic land subsidence in the Perth Basin: challenges for its retrospective geodetic detection – says subsidence at Gnangara for the 14 years 1997-2011 has averaged 4.6mm per year – see Table 1 below.

In recent decades subsidence has been worsened by increased drawdown ground water for Perth water supplies – a process which has eased post 2005.

This online chart shows CGPS readings from the Hillarys tide gauge installation and indicates steady sinking of ~3mm per year 2006-2012. There are no CGPS readings I can find from Fremantle.

Hillarys has CGPS data from 1997 and Featherstone et al say those data – “…are not in a form that can be readily analysed in a short time frame, particularly because of the multiple equipment changes that make the time series very discontinuous.” Other published versions of the Hillarys CGPS data quote a 1998-2009 subsidence averaging just over 5mm per year. Watson PJ – Is There Evidence Yet of Acceleration in Mean Sea Level
Rise around Mainland Australia?
Journal of Coastal Research, Vol. 27, No. 2, 2011
Featherstone et al 2012 discuss surveying to detect level changes and say – “There is some scope for detecting subsidence in the Perth Basin if levelling is repeated now or sometime in the future. However, the costs are likely to be prohibitive.”
I fail to see how a few repeat levelling traverses from the Darling Ranges to the coast costing what ? – a few $million ? – should be beyond the wealth of a First World nation like Australia. Apparently some traverses were carried out in the 1980′s.
There is no shortage of Govt grant monies to waste on shonky Greenhouse inspired “research”.
Tide gauges and harbours are often located in places where the crust is sinking due to say sedimentation from a river. Any harbour structure attached to piles will slowly sink into the muddy substrate over the decades – factors like traffic vibration, a century of ships banging into piles – all can contribute to piles sinking. Dock areas where tide gauges tend to be installed are often the sites of reclaimed land, Auckland is an example. This tends to quietly settle for decades which can confound tide gauge data. At Fremantle 150 years of urbanization – including storm-water drainage direct to the sea – can lower ground water levels and cause subsidence – quite apart from deliberate ground water harvesting.

That is from their “Business As-Usual Best Estimate” – of course the real world result is less than half of that.
I see Jo Nova drawing attention to warmist claims that predictions of IPCC 1990 are coming true – reported uncritically of course by the ABC.
Clive Best dealt well with this issue last year.

We must not forget that policymakers were herded to the Rio conference in 1992 and fed a pack of lies.
IPCC 1990 also predicted sea level rise would be twice what it has turned out to be.

A reader asked me if I had any historic snow depth data for Australia and drew my attention to Chiefios blog.
There is a Snowy Hydro webpage with some annual snow depth charts and I have used those charts from Spencers Creek to build a maximum depth time series.
I also have a 1990 report – “The South East Australian Alpine Climate Study” – by CSIRO, University of Melbourne and Alpine Resorts Commission. That has a graphic on page 19, Fig 2.4 Annual maximum snow depth (water equivalent in cm) for Rocky Valley Snow Pole Line 1935 – 1989.
I have digitised those data and let Excel plot the two time series below.

As usual the data do not support the normal media predictions that the ski industry is doomed. We know the Australian ski-fields do not have great heights of mountains above them – the pioneers worked that out – no news there.
But the data does not show any sign that “Global Warming” is wiping out the Australian ski resorts.

The claim of a 6cm per decade rise is from their 1990 Executive Summary.
Note on the graphic 2012_rel4: Global Mean Sea Level Time Series (seasonal signals removed) – from this IPCC compliant Org – the claimed rate from adjusted satellite data is only 3.1mm per year – HALF of IPCC 1990.

But there is more – checkout the new Jo Nova article – Are sea-levels rising? Nils-Axel Mörner documents a decided lack of rising seas. Nils-Axel Mörner says the unadjusted satellite data show negligible trend and in his new pdf paper SEA LEVEL IS NOT RISING – has this stunning graphic.

So the rate of sea level rise is just an artifact of IPCC compliant adjustments.

This was reported in The Australian in May but has recently hit TV news.
The first map shows current Petroleum Exploration Licences.

The next shows applications not yet approved as licences and by far the largest area are Petroleum Special Prospecting Authority Applications by the New South Wales Aboriginal Land Council (NSWALC) – approx three-eighths of the State.

The main area of applications that is not NSWALC is the block in the NW corner of the State, north of Broken Hill which is by Northern Territory Oil Limited. Some areas with darker colours might be overlapping applications by competing parties. The NSWALC has very recently become noticed in the world of mineral exploration too, making “expressions of interest” EoI for two uranium exploration areas in the State, exactly which areas I do not know.
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