Errors in IPCC climate science

Matt Ridley’s page “The greening of the planet” lead me to the work of Professor Ranga Myneni of Boston University. A page listing his publications has a link to this 2012 paper – “Surface Urban Heat Island Across 419 Global Big Cities”.

Peng et al., 2012 Surface Urban Heat Island Across 419 Global Big Cities, Environ. Sci. & Tech., Environ. Sci. Technol., 2012, 46 (2), pp 696-703, DOI:10.1021/es2030438
ABSTRACT: Urban heat island is among the most evident aspects of human impacts on the earth system. Here we assess the diurnal and seasonal variation of surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) defined as the surface temperature difference between urban area and suburban area measured from the MODIS. Differences in SUHII are analyzed across 419 global big cities, and we assess several potential biophysical and socio-economic driving factors. Across the big cities, we show that the average annual daytime SUHII (1.5 ± 1.2 °C) is higher
than the annual nighttime SUHII (1.1 ± 0.5 °C) (P < 0.001). But no correlation is found between daytime and nighttime SUHII across big cities (P = 0.84), suggesting different driving mechanisms between day and night. The distribution of nighttime SUHII correlates positively with the difference in albedo and nighttime light between urban area and suburban area, while the distribution of daytime SUHII correlates negatively across cities with the difference of vegetation cover and activity between urban and suburban areas. Our results emphasize the key role of vegetation feedbacks in attenuating SUHII of big cities during the day, in particular during the growing season, further highlighting that increasing urban vegetation cover could be one effective way to mitigate the urban heat island effect.

My attention was caught by this loaded and evocative headline in the Canberra Times “Plant life losing battle with emissions”, for an article introducing the latest whizz-bang new CSIRO paper, “The Australian terrestrial carbon budget”, Haverd et al 2013.
Haverd et al say – “The Australian landscape soaked up one third of the carbon emitted by fossil fuels in Australia over the past twenty years…”
Which is at odds with the 1992 CSIRO paper by R.M.Gifford which said – “The present modelled rate of net sequestration is of a similar magnitude to CO2 emissions from continental fossil fuel burning and land clearing combined.”
What amazed me though was that the current paper does not reference Gifford 1992 when eight of the ten authors are from CSIRO.
I expect to have more to say later but here are a couple of graphics.
I have been trying to find the number for the size of the Australian carbon sink, not annual changes but gross size – the only figure I can find is from the 1998 website CompleXia titled, “HOW BIG IS AUSTRALIA’S SOIL CARBON STORE?” which says, “Preliminary estimates suggest that Australia’s soil carbon sink is of the order of 48 Gt (Gifford et al. 1992).” Thats 48 gigatonnes, 48,000,000,000 or 48 billion tonnes. Just to get that number on scale compared to the figures below, that is 48,000 Tg or terragrams used in Haverd et al and also 48,000 Mt or megatonnes used by Gifford – a megatonne is 1,000,000 tonnes, one million tonnes.
Summary of the Australian territorial carbon budget, 1990–2011. from Haverd et al 2013.

and Figure 1 from Gifford 1992

Ends here

Following my articles of a few days ago – BBC exaggerated warming trend in David Attenborough’s TV show “Africa” and – CRUT4 surface temperature grid box anomalies trend over Kenya compared to NASA satellites lower troposphere – the source of the David Attenborough 3.5° warming claim explained. I have dug into station data for the 5 degree grid box over Kenya and it looks clear after comparing anomalies with Garissa, that the Nairobi Airport data carries non-climatic warming from the late 1990′s. Although Garissa is almost 300km away in the NE of the grid box and both stations have many data gaps – the difference points to Nairobi Airport data being faulty.
Nairobi Airport temperature anomalies

Garissa temperature anomalies

Difference Nairobi Airport minus Garissa

It is a puzzle how Jones et al data can carry such obvious standout mistakes after years of polishing through how many versions? – plus years of input from the UKMO? IPCC science must surely be in a very shoddy state.

A few days ago I posted – BBC exaggerated warming trend in David Attenborough’s TV show “Africa”. Well here is an explanation for the scary warming rates quoted by TV host David Attenborough. Satellites detect no significant warming over the gridbox covering the Kenyan localities mentioned in the Guardian story.

While CRUT4 surface data agrees pretty well with satellites up to about 1998 – after that the surface departs erratically much warmer, improving somewhat in 2012. I would bet the sheep station that the surface data will be at fault here, probably micro-site effects – note the increased data gaps too. Remember these anomalies are from the entire grid-box area – there will be individual stations better and worse.
Ironic that UNEP has HQ in Kenya. What does this say for CRUT4 quality control measures – big on published words – next to non-existent in reality.
Note data from KNMI Climate Explorer thanks.
Ed note 19 Feb – the original graphic was mistakenly made with data from a 5 x 10° grid box 5S to Equator and 30-40E. Should have been 35-40E. As the graphic is now. The CRUT4 data looked identical for the two grid areas but satellite numbers changed slightly as you would expect.

A week ago I posted – February not turning out stellar hot so far – Weatherzone prediction fall flat on face so far – 6.8° out for Sydney
The SMH article of 4 Feb 2013 “Cool spell soon to be broken” – has the following quotes from Dr Dutschke of Weatherzone (a Joint Venture between the BoM and Fairfax).
[Beyond this week, more heat can be expected with weather models point to a hotter spell by mid- to late-February, Weatherzone's Dr Dutschke said.
Sydney, Adelaide and Melbourne could all see temperatures of 40 degrees from that second heatwave, he said.]
BoM forecasts out to 23 Feb – no heatwaves being forecast yet – but hey it is summer.

Still waiting to see any sign of your prediction coming to pass Dr Dutschke.

Just saw this on Anthony Watts – Boxer’s carbon tax proposal would enrich people already feeding from the public trough…
Note this quote – “It would impose a fee on carbon emissions at their source, such as coal mines, raising the price of fossil fuel energy.
But instead of giving the proceeds to the government, three-fifths of the money would be refunded to U.S. residents.”

Shades of GreenLabor in Canberra paying out Carbon Tax revenues to its low-income constituents and welfare recipients as “compensation” for rising electricity bills and other Tax impacts. We have all heard Labor figures gloating that they are “over-compensating”. Just another Socialist redistribution of the Nations wealth.
I only saw one commenter at Watts that picked up on the similarity to the Australian CTax.

Just came across this concise article at the Arizona blog WryHeat – Urban heat island effect on temperatures, a tale of two cities – Authored by Jonathan DuHamel. We need more examples defining the UHI out there all the time to counter the colossal IPCC compliant propaganda.

Over a decade ago I posted this page – Phoenix AZ five degree grid cell –
Had a quick look at it, graphics need improving but stands the test of time I think – an example of one of the great rorts in science.

I have read some rubbish from the ABC but this is right up there on a short-list of the very worst. Completely ignoring the years of corruption in NSW Labor.
Just Google the Wollongong planning scandal that was making headlines in 2008 exactly when the Bylong coal corrupt dealings were in gestation – dealings that for months have been exposed at ICAC.

This story has been running the rounds. “BBC exaggerated climate change in David Attenborough’s Africa”. Donna Laframboise has just dug deeper into the scam and shreds the BBC’s shoddy work further in – “The Workshop Presentation that Never Was”

Thought it worth restating that I have pointed out in Aug 2006 “Satellites vs surface, amazing agreement over the USA” then revisited the theme again
in 2010 and 2012 – The Jones et al CRUT trends are not worth a cup full of warm spit when compared against satellites lower troposphere trends over the large African grid-box 20S to 20N and 10E to 40E. Obviously something seriously wrong with surface data. I love the way satellites and surface agrees over the USA – CRU would not want any possums stirred up there.
Why is it that unpaid sceptics all over the world have to correct the work of highly paid IPCC warmists ?

It will be more interesting when the plan sees the light of day. When the Coalition makes it into Govt they will find entrenched water bureaucrats wedded too much to “Wentworth Group” ideas that would naturally oppose the vast majority of projects in this report. There has grown in Australia an influential group of interests in favour of more expensive water.
We are certainly paying in our water bills for the last 25 years or so when Green Anti-Dam dogmas have had too much influence. Anti-Dam sentiment allied with arm-waving arguments exaggerating the 2002-2009 drought have contributed to several uneconomic seawater desalination plants being constructed. Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane desal projects are costing us multi-tens of $Billions and stand as huge “white elephants”.
Some things the Coalition could do without building a single dam.
First review all environmental flow specifications with a view to cutting them back. How crazy that the Thomson Dam for example has 35% of inflows wasted to the sea. Should add that on 5 Feb 2012 I posted – Possible Kimberley region nation building dam projects
Never used plans going back half a century.