My Catchment Rain Index updated. Large vers.
Plus my chart of catchment efficiency 1980-2017 – large vers.
And BTW calcs show from 2001-2017 1646GL of water could have been saved if catchments had been managed so that efficiency could have been maintained at ~5.6%. That = 96.8GL PA wasted. A whisker more than inflows this year. What would that waste be worth? A lazy $Bn ?
Summer rain Outlook 16 Nov foretold near average for SE Aust. Summer rain Outlook 30 Nov better but already wrong if the ‘Lives at risk’ scare is half correct. OK so anybody can make mistakes – lets check what they forecast for November rain on Oct 12th and then on Oct 26th. Here is map of November rain percentages so the later Outlook on 26th Oct was worse than the one on the 12th. Taxpayers could save $millions slashing BoM budget – we could get forecasting from www. Let BoM do core job of running our weather observations network properly.
In September I blogged More sloppy BoM errors as the rain-guage Alanadale in Gippsland went troppo.
Those errors still stand in the daily data and today there is another 153mm error to add. I know school children who could write code to rapidly check data for outlier errors.
While checking end of October rainfall numbers at Perth water supply dams – I looked in at 2.55am on 31st Oct and I saved this table with data as at 30 Oct. Interesting that as at end October – Canning, Mundaring, Serpentine Pipehead, South Dandalup and Wungong Dams all recorded over their annual rainfall with two months still to go – and there had been 86GL of inflows for the year. Churchmans Brook and Victoria Dams were way down on their rainfall – funny that Churchmans Brook is the only one of the seven sites to record to 4 decimal places? But back to the real world.
Golly I thought – all this rain must be causing smiles at WaterCorporation as they calculate the value to WA taxpayers of all that free rain falling from the sky. I imagined articles in The West Australian mentioning all this free water.
Later at 5.51pm on 31st Oct the numbers for that day were posted – and the numbers were little changed from the 30th – see Tables below.
I checked again at 6.04pm on 1st Nov and the data for 31st was still posted but there had been a couple of changes see Tables below. Inflows jumped to 89.3 GL – maybe a cloudburst somewhere.
Looking closer I saw the numbers for Victoria Dam going haywire see tables below.
Checking on 3rd Nov the crazy numbers for Victoria Dam had moved left as per Tables below copied off the 4 screens I saved. Quick comments on numbers marked with red X. The 670.0306mm is suspect because it is the only # to 4 dec places. The 576mm is sus because it is way lower than all others. The others for Victoria Dam are sus because they record multi-metres of rainfall that never happened.
Checking today the Table has updated to 8th Nov and numbers are exactly as per 3rd Nov.
The rain chart for Victoria Dam indicates water that could meet Perth supply needs without desalination.
So nobody at WaterCorporation can be watching – it must be that nobody at WaterCorporation cares in the slightest about rainfall.
Could have done better – miniscule areas with above average rain predicted but it looks as if about half of the misgoverned nation enjoyed over average rain. And they get Tasmania exactly wrong.
October max(daytime) temperatures were forecast to be high in most of the coastal rim and cool in the centre extending to the SW. Reality was that pattern was nothing like that with a fail along the coastal half of Qld and many central failed areas. I wonder who benefits from these Outlooks – anybody out there hangs out for them?
October min(night) temperatures were forecast to be a bit cooler than the days with a similar shape. Reality was the peak hot nights were nowhere near where they were predicted but there were some small wins in the cool areas. Again I wonder who benefits from these Outlooks.
Lets check the BoM 3 Month Outlooks – first rain – OK I think it shows not one square centimetre of Australia was due for above average rain. But reality was that vast areas of Australia had above average rain. Monster fail.
Now Max (daytime) temperature – I think it shows not one square centimetre of Australia was due for average or below average temperatures. But reality was that large areas of Australia from Carnarvon-Southern Vic- Tasmania and FNQ coast experienced near average or very mildly warm temperatures . And nowhere in the rest of Australia did the scale of temperature anomalies reach the extreme level of the predictions. Fail.
Now Min (night) temperatures. Not one square centimetre of Australia was due for average or below average night temperatures. Yet in the real world large areas were either anomalously cool or only very mildy warm. Big fail here.
Year of the flood in Christchurch -And Aotearoa main centres have all had over their average annual rain by 11 October.
Are there any other news items I have missed? And of course NIWA never saw this coming. Data from MetService Towns & Cities pages.
No limit to water madness over decades in Western Australia.
 Refusal for decades to manage catchments – see 2002 press.
 Refusal for decades to use desal Wellington Dam water for metro supply, see next link –
 Refusal for decades to use mega quantities of desal wheatbelt water constantly wasting to sea in rivers.
A water org that can not even measure rainfall normally. There should be mass sackings in WaterCorporation and WA Dept of Water. Large image.
So obvious that a rain instrument has gone troppo.
Did not like the switch to Spring.
A reader mentioned to me that Sir George Kingston had kept rainfall data at Grote Street Adelaide from 1839-1878 and that data was in the South Australian library. The BoM has added the first 22 years of the Kingston data to West Terrace making West Terrace start in 1839 – I have added Kent Town post ~1978. This chart as per BoM – The Grote Street data is v slightly different 1839-1860 – then a bit more different 1861-1878 – I can add that later. I am sure there will be points to comment on – but I found it interesting that 1974 is not noteworthy despite Lake Eyre filling. Large graph.
No doubt a headline event for the WA Watercorporation. There seems to be errors in the BoM map for example the 100% line should go west from Perth to the coast on basis Swanbourne and Rottnest – see data at AWN map. The brown area NNE of Wagin seems to lack data justification too in stations I can see at the CDO map. For large map.