Like many I noticed Prince Charles repeating the claim that climate change is responsible for the rise of Islamic State.
Looking for rain data history at KNMI Climate Explorer I found the only monthly data that made charts for Syria was the “monthly CRU TS3.23 precipitation Syria Index”.
and below expressed as anomalies
The BBC has an interesting Syria profile – Timeline on the last hundred years history of Syria. Andrew Bolt has a post on the story – The science says Prince Charles is a fool to blame global warming for the Islamic State – and Euan Mearns also has – Drought, Climate, War, Terrorism, and Syria.
Turkey has just shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter that was presumably annoying the Turkmen who live very close to the Syria-Turkey border and are no fans of President Assad. While all this is in motion the Kurds Peshmerga forces assisted by western airstrikes are methodically joining the dots towards a new Kurdistan in NE Syria and Iraq. What a maelstrom of diverse competing forces.
Issued only on 29th October – the BoM rain Outlook for November crashed and burnt by the time 20% of the month had passed on 6th Nov.
Current month to date rainfall percentages for Australia
This map below of rain percentages for 1st to 6th Nov 2015 shows that vast areas have already had more rain than the Outlook predicted –
and there is 80% of the month still to come – follow the 20% line .
There were areas of useful rain in NSW Qld too in the last week of October.
48hrs of rain dot maps at the BoM
NSW today 2nd Nov 15 some rain still around on radar.
Rainfall data show that while rainfall has not decreased that much in 40 years –
runoff is drastically declining due to failure to manage catchment scrub.
Link to graphic of monthly Perth dams runoff for a decade or so since 2000.
2015 media – 2014 media – 2013 media – 2011 media – blah blah
Remembering the great media beat-ups blaming Sahel drought on global warming. You could not make this stuff up. Is Global Warming Really Harming Africa’s Sahel Region? Thanks to an alert reader who says – The bias towards alarm is verging on the ridiculous.
I saw the 60 Minutes segment on the 2011 Grantham floods last Sunday where they
raised again the issue that a wall at a local sand quarry breached which they say caused the loss of life at Grantham. This issue has been discussed for years – just google “quarry wall near grantham”. I have not read earlier reports but it surprises me that a matter involving simply ascertainable engineering matters such as volume of trapped water – height of the wall and nature of the breaches – would not have been reported on with some certainty in terms of flood effects on Grantham.
I posted on this in 2011 – Toowoomba flash flood shambles – and reading comments which ran for over a month – there is no mention of this sand quarry.
I have found a map of the quarry – exhibit 359 at the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry 2011 – The copy I took needed lightening – the pdf has rather a dark image – the map goes with exhibit 358. More recent map I just obtained from GoogleEarth – the flooded quarry is obvious inside that loop in Lockyer Creek just north of the end of the word Carpendale.
So this sand quarry is slap bang in the path of the Lockyer-Toowoomba-Helidon-Grantham flood and I would be pretty sure the waters would have surged around any earthworks with little problem – would have flowed north, south and over any quarry wall – no surprise there were multiple breaks in this wall. The abrupt natural bends in the creek around the quarry and the earth walls would tend to slow the flow and could have been the sites of debris, logs etc accumulating and obstructing the flood for periods until they were in turn swept on.
In months to come we will see what the new inquiry brings.
Recent flooding in the Hunter with loss of life at Dungog shows that although the BoM get rain telemetry in real time – and allied with historic hydrology data should be able to highlight areas of danger – our modern and technology rich society at times can not produce useful warnings against effects of flash flooding.
California drought: Past dry periods have lasted more than 200 years, scientists say
Does anybody know of similar proxy time-series for Australia?
I was told by a reader about a loss of ~18mm rain recorded at Montague Island Lighthouse 69017 (NSW south coast near Narooma) on 6/7th April 2013. I checked this out and sure enough the 30 minute data shows 20.6mm at 2.30am on the 7th which at 3am is reset to 2.2mm – so 18.4mm of rain was lost in what must have been an electrical/electronic fault. I kept the www page of 30 minute data.
I sent the following fax to BoM Sydney on 9 May 2013 and never got a reply.
[MONTAGUE ISLAND LIGHTHOUSE ID: 069017 Rainfall 7 April 2013
Your webpage “Latest Weather Observations for Montague Island”
records around 18.8mm rain ~10.30am to 11am on Saturday 6th April.
There was another 1.6mm recorded ~9.30-10pm that evening making 20.4mm.
A further 0.2mm made the total 20.6mm around midnight.
Then at 3am on the 7th the rain total reset to 2.2mm which was the 9am total recorded.
You can check the Canberra radar archive at –
and there were rain signatures at “~10.30am to 11am on Saturday 6th April” and
“~9.30-10pm that evening”.
So perhaps your Montague Island telemetry has lost 18.4mm of rain in the signal somewhere.
All the best,]
Checking daily rain for station 069017 at Climate Data Online we see that 2.2mm is recorded for the 7th April 2013 –
What would it take to get the BoM to correct an error ?
Western Queensland community turns out for drought forum in Longreach
The chart shows there have been worse droughts in the 120 odd years of rain history at Longreach. So why would anybody be surprised at recent low rainfall?
You can make droughts maps for various periods out to three years at the BoM.
Rummaging through some ancient boxes I found this 1985 stamp which I had never noticed – carrying the slogan “Water is Precious”.
A slogan unworthy of a rational Govt – a slogan that has assisted to take us on the policy road where dams have been forbidden and $Billions have been wasted on unnecessary seawater desalination factories – mostly now in mothballs and we have to put up with a constant Green inspired push for inflated water prices. Reality is water is a common compound and falls free from the sky in huge quantities if you have the brains to store it. Cheap clean water from municipal supplies piped to homes has been an important contributor to increased life expectancy over the last 150 years. If we allow Green policies to interfere with this we risk turning the clock back healthwise.