BoM/ABC team hyperventilates Heatwave health alert issued for southern Tasmania as 130yo record set to fall while ignoring Hobart Botanical Gardens 94030 had a monthly mean 22.7 in 1843 compared to 22.4 for Hobart (Ellerslie Road) 94029 Nov 2017. I wonder how many people were harmed by those warm days this month?
I have just had a heads up from Silligy re this 2005 paper – MEASUREMENT OF AIR TEMPERATURE IN THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE RADIANT FLUX: AN ASSESSMENT OF PASSIVELY VENTILATED THERMOMETER SCREENS – pdf ~300KB – Fig 10 gives an idea of the magnitude of the differences. Commercial screen Type A naturally ventilated in the 2005 paper and Type B aspirated
Instrument change a ~decade ago –
amazing nobody at GHCN has noticed this complete failure to calibrate the new instrument with what it replaced – data from KNMI Climate Explorer. Minimum affected too. This has historic significance because Hokitika was one of the “rural” series in Jones original global dataset in the 1980’s that had a ~century of data. Ruined for good now. I think the NZ Metservice runs the stations.
Minus 10.4 degrees C was recorded originally at GOULBURN AIRPORT AWS (070330) which was filed by blogger Lance who noticed the BoM rapidly altered this to -10. Jennifer Marohasy blogged on the issue 4 July and passed the info on to a journalist who asked the BoM if they could explain. BoM said they have a “QC” auto function clipping off extremes in case there are errors. And this caused the reset to -10°. JM blogs again on 5 July. This revelation of raw data trimmimg is brand new to many of us who monitor BoM data – but OK thats what the BoM says happened. Jo Nova is also onto the issue. Lance and I checked BoM AWAP maps for NSW daily minimum temperature and noticed the contouring was hugely in error when checked against actual minimums. I have NSW daily minimum temperature maps offline for the 1st July – 2nd July and 3rd July. Just looking at data from the Southern Tablelands region (the white O circles the Goulburn and Canberra localities.) Goulburn is in the wrong contour zone all 3 days. Canberra Airport should be well into the -6 to -9 zone on all 3 days – yet it is always plotted on the boundary of the -3 to -6 and -6 to -9 zones. Always wrong. Taralga about 40km NNE of Goulburn (approx marked white T) read -7° on the 1st & 2nd yet the correct -6 to -9 degrees zone boundary is way too far west on those days. Yass recorded -8.7 on the 2nd yet the contouring has Yass in the next warmer zone. Likewise Cooma on the 3rd should be in the -6 to -9 zone but is shown in the next warmer zone. I expect readers might find errors in other parts of the State – or in other States
With so many errors I wonder what purpose these maps can be fit for. On the issue of the BoM clipping sub -10° readings back to an even -10. Lance mentioned to me these very cold reading from Goulburn Aero Club 70210 in July 1971 – down to -13.9°. Cop that 14 days of frosts in 1971!! Worth noting too the all time coldest Canberra Airport min was -10 on 11 Jul 1971. So setting -10 as an alarm was somewhat odd and without sound scientific foundations – but Hey!! it is the BoM.
I have tried over the years to find a single point that birthed global warming as we know it. My guess has been that it originated during the Carter years possibly in the US Dept. of Energy. With the Trump ascendancy it seems timely to throw this open to readers to see what emerges. History of climate change science
Timeline – The Discovery of Global Warming – American Institute of Physics – Global Warming: How It All Began by Richard Courtney – A History of the Disastrous Global Warming Hoax by Alan Caruba March 2014 – The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment was held in Stockholm, Sweden from June 5–16 in 1972. Global Warming or climate not mentioned in 26 bullet points
The centre of our largest urban heat island reached 34.2 on 6 Apr 2016 topping 33.9 from 5 Apr 1986.
Other stations I have checked that were open in 1986 were all hotter in April 1986.
Sydney Airport 34.7 on 6 Apr 2016 but 35.7 on 4 Apr 1986
Bankstown AP 35.8 on 6 Apr 2016 but 36.9 on 4 Apr 1986
Parramatta Nth 35.2 on 6 Apr 2016 but 37 on 4 Apr 1986
Richmond RAAF(067105) 36.6 on 6 Apr 2016 but Richmond RAAF(067033) 38.2 on 4 Apr 1986
The ABC TV weather news was beating up Penrith but that station did not open until 1995 and there seems to be no other Penrith station – tough – what liars.
Looking at the state I have checked Goulburn, Condobolin, Cobar, Bourke – the first 3 were all hotter in Apr 1986. Bourke Post Office was hotter 3 times between 1906 and 1922. So just now I can not find that 6 April made a record hot day anywhere in NSW except Sydney Obs Hill – any suggestions? This would be remarkable.
BoM staff cuts at regional weather stations were flagged a month ago – so here is a response in local Cobar news. These marked blue are the sites likely to be de-staffed.
My main point is that these stations will be like Cobar – designated Met Offices properly staffed – which should be a step up in importance from the hundreds of smaller sites where volunteers or part timers take weather readings. IMHO a crazy decision that will affect data quality in years to come. In the context of the Australian economy – what will the savings be? In the context of the cost to us of greedy politicians – what will the savings be? There is much more at www.michaelsmithnews.com/
We have all seen the media beat ups about the “Great Four day Perth heatwave 7th to 10th Feb 2016” – never a mention that that the ever expanding Perth urban heat island UHI might contribute to this event. Credit where credit is due though, the original BoM forecast was pretty good. Unlike their Brisbane and Queensland efforts this year.
Check out the statistics assembled by Chris Gillham in Perth – his website has much information on WA and Perth climate matters. Interesting that Perth Airport temperature data shows the “Great Four day Perth heatwave 7th to 10th Feb 2016” was exceeded by several past events at that site.
A reader reminded me of this issue and asked if I had checked the “carbon dioxide thermometer”. This concept arises from the fact that in warm years carbon dioxide outgasses from oceans into the atmosphere while in cool years the opposite takes place with carbon dioxide moving from the atmosphere into oceans.
This chart shows many correlations showing that the “carbon dioxide thermometer” is alive and well and is saying that 1998 is still the hottest year in the last four decades. So the “CO2 thermometer” says the satellites with their automated 24/7 pinging of the entire planet are to be trusted before HadCRUT4 which on land derives data mostly from ever expanding urban areas which are warming due to the urban heat island effect. In addition, temperature series such as HadCRUT4 are being adjusted cooler in earlier years thus increasing the warming trend.
I have just had an email saying that the Feb 2005 email from Dr Phil Jones to me saying – “We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it. ” – has been mentioned at Climate etc the blog by Dr Judith Curry.
This got me to wondering if I have posted anywhere the six months sequence of emails starting July 2004 that lead up to Dr Jones marvellous missive. If you click more – my warts & all text file notes are there for those interested.
Continue reading Timeline around the “We have 25 or so years invested in the work.” 2005 email from Dr Phil Jones