Category Archives: Jones et al

BoM fiddling Goulburn minimum temperature 2nd July 2017 reveals extent of errors in BoM AWAP temperature maps

Minus 10.4 degrees C was recorded originally at GOULBURN AIRPORT AWS (070330) which was filed by blogger Lance who noticed the BoM rapidly altered this to -10. Jennifer Marohasy blogged on the issue 4 July and passed the info on to a journalist who asked the BoM if they could explain. BoM said they have a “QC” auto function clipping off extremes in case there are errors. And this caused the reset to -10°. JM blogs again on 5 July. This revelation of raw data trimmimg is brand new to many of us who monitor BoM data – but OK thats what the BoM says happened. Jo Nova is also onto the issue. Lance and I checked BoM AWAP maps for NSW daily minimum temperature and noticed the contouring was hugely in error when checked against actual minimums. I have NSW daily minimum temperature maps offline for the 1st July – 2nd July and 3rd July. Just looking at data from the Southern Tablelands region (the white O circles the Goulburn and Canberra localities.) Goulburn is in the wrong contour zone all 3 days. Canberra Airport should be well into the -6 to -9 zone on all 3 days – yet it is always plotted on the boundary of the -3 to -6 and -6 to -9 zones. Always wrong. Taralga about 40km NNE of Goulburn (approx marked white T) read -7° on the 1st & 2nd yet the correct -6 to -9 degrees zone boundary is way too far west on those days. Yass recorded -8.7 on the 2nd yet the contouring has Yass in the next warmer zone. Likewise Cooma on the 3rd should be in the -6 to -9 zone but is shown in the next warmer zone. I expect readers might find errors in other parts of the State – or in other States
With so many errors I wonder what purpose these maps can be fit for. On the issue of the BoM clipping sub -10° readings back to an even -10. Lance mentioned to me these very cold reading from Goulburn Aero Club 70210 in July 1971 – down to -13.9°. Cop that 14 days of frosts in 1971!! Worth noting too the all time coldest Canberra Airport min was -10 on 11 Jul 1971. So setting -10 as an alarm was somewhat odd and without sound scientific foundations – but Hey!! it is the BoM.

What are the origins of the global warming bandwagon

I have tried over the years to find a single point that birthed global warming as we know it. My guess has been that it originated during the Carter years possibly in the US Dept. of Energy. With the Trump ascendancy it seems timely to throw this open to readers to see what emerges. History of climate change science
Timeline – The Discovery of Global Warming – American Institute of Physics – Global Warming: How It All Began by Richard Courtney – A History of the Disastrous Global Warming Hoax by Alan Caruba March 2014 – The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment was held in Stockholm, Sweden from June 5–16 in 1972. Global Warming or climate not mentioned in 26 bullet points

Sydney hottest April day last Wednesday only happened at Observatory Hill

The centre of our largest urban heat island reached 34.2 on 6 Apr 2016 topping 33.9 from 5 Apr 1986.
Other stations I have checked that were open in 1986 were all hotter in April 1986.
Sydney Airport 34.7 on 6 Apr 2016 but 35.7 on 4 Apr 1986
Bankstown AP 35.8 on 6 Apr 2016 but 36.9 on 4 Apr 1986
Parramatta Nth 35.2 on 6 Apr 2016 but 37 on 4 Apr 1986
Richmond RAAF(067105) 36.6 on 6 Apr 2016 but Richmond RAAF(067033) 38.2 on 4 Apr 1986
The ABC TV weather news was beating up Penrith but that station did not open until 1995 and there seems to be no other Penrith station – tough – what liars.

Looking at the state I have checked Goulburn, Condobolin, Cobar, Bourke – the first 3 were all hotter in Apr 1986. Bourke Post Office was hotter 3 times between 1906 and 1922. So just now I can not find that 6 April made a record hot day anywhere in NSW except Sydney Obs Hill – any suggestions? This would be remarkable.

Cobar weather station and many others goes automatic as BoM staff cut

BoM staff cuts at regional weather stations were flagged a month ago – so here is a response in local Cobar news. These marked blue are the sites likely to be de-staffed.

My main point is that these stations will be like Cobar – designated Met Offices properly staffed – which should be a step up in importance from the hundreds of smaller sites where volunteers or part timers take weather readings. IMHO a crazy decision that will affect data quality in years to come. In the context of the Australian economy – what will the savings be? In the context of the cost to us of greedy politicians – what will the savings be? There is much more at www.michaelsmithnews.com/

Perth 4 days over 40°C heatwave nothing out of the ordinary for Perth heatwaves

We have all seen the media beat ups about the “Great Four day Perth heatwave 7th to 10th Feb 2016” – never a mention that that the ever expanding Perth urban heat island UHI might contribute to this event. Credit where credit is due though, the original BoM forecast was pretty good. Unlike their Brisbane and Queensland efforts this year.
Check out the statistics assembled by Chris Gillham in Perth – his website has much information on WA and Perth climate matters. Interesting that Perth Airport temperature data shows the “Great Four day Perth heatwave 7th to 10th Feb 2016” was exceeded by several past events at that site.

Was 2015 really the “Hottest year Ever”? – CO2 Thermometer says No

A reader reminded me of this issue and asked if I had checked the “carbon dioxide thermometer”. This concept arises from the fact that in warm years carbon dioxide outgasses from oceans into the atmosphere while in cool years the opposite takes place with carbon dioxide moving from the atmosphere into oceans.

This chart shows many correlations showing that the “carbon dioxide thermometer” is alive and well and is saying that 1998 is still the hottest year in the last four decades. So the “CO2 thermometer” says the satellites with their automated 24/7 pinging of the entire planet are to be trusted before HadCRUT4 which on land derives data mostly from ever expanding urban areas which are warming due to the urban heat island effect. In addition, temperature series such as HadCRUT4 are being adjusted cooler in earlier years thus increasing the warming trend.

Timeline around the “We have 25 or so years invested in the work.” 2005 email from Dr Phil Jones

I have just had an email saying that the Feb 2005 email from Dr Phil Jones to me saying – “We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it. ” – has been mentioned at Climate etc the blog by Dr Judith Curry.
This got me to wondering if I have posted anywhere the six months sequence of emails starting July 2004 that lead up to Dr Jones marvellous missive. If you click more – my warts & all text file notes are there for those interested.
Continue reading Timeline around the “We have 25 or so years invested in the work.” 2005 email from Dr Phil Jones

Once upon a time in the late 1990’s GISS made tapered adjustments for the urban heat island UHI

I have been digging into my archives and have discovered some of my temperature data downloads from GISS with their tapered UHI adjustments. Here is their work for Melbourne.

Do any readers remembers those efforts by GISS ? I have several more examples I can show later that essentially adjust strongly warming city data to show a near neutral trend. Maybe these tapered UHI adjustments (click for chart of exact adjustments) did not please everybody because post 2000 GISS started making homogeneity adjustments using satellite night lights – I am not sure if that method is still used. In recent years I have tended to lose track of what they do once they started adjusting rural data to agree with UHI affected cities.

Coldest December morning for 38 years at Kent Town in central Adelaide

Just noticed this HT Graeme No.3 – But today I see Adelaide (Kent Town) recorded 7.9°C which just beats the previous record of 8° in 1987 – data starts 1977.
Parafield Airport had 5.7 this morning – Only 0.1 above the December record minimum of 5.6 in 1995. All in the face of the increasing Adelaide urban heat island (UHI) influence.
Adelaide West Terrace 1887-1979 recorded 6.8 in 1955.