The BoM rain Outlook for summer predicted only minor areas would enjoy above average rain-
yet average and above average decile rain fell over vast areas – over the majority of the area of Australia.
Why is the BoM allowed to waste our taxes publishing these useless Outlooks?
The BoM rates Marcia as a Cat 5 now – yet the strongest wind gusts I can find are 208kmh at Middle Percy Island at 4.30am. which indicates Cat 3.
ABC News24 is quoting wind gusts 300kmh – the Qld Premier is on news quoting 280kmh wind gusts.
As I write coming up 11.30am St Lawrence had gusts of 44kmh at 4am and Williamson 96kmh recorded at 8.30am Qld time of course. Williamson looks near fair & square in the path. Can anybody point me to online Cat 5 wind observations ?
Maps tell the story – first the Outlook prediction for a hot January
Then the real world result.
I do not know why taxpayers money is wasted making proclamations that so often turn out worthless. Time Series Graph Jan max t anomaly
A major rain event starting in Alice Springs ~7th and running about a week destroyed the BoM dry prediction. I have not seen a reason quoted for that – did the jetstream wobble – for sure the moonsoon belt fired up to the south. I wonder how useful this rain Outlook was.
January rain Outlook
January actual rain percentages – you can make maps of other parameters
Of course you are seeing this in MSM headlines?
Yesterday Sydney barely struggled above 20°C on Australia Day the 26th January 2015 – in the face of the ever growing urban heat island too – 30 minute data preserved – online here – In 1965 the max was 20.7 (ACORN says 20.9) then in 1957 the max was 19.4 (ACORN said 19.6) Daily max and min data – as I write the BoM is slow to update the max for Monday. But Australian Weather News already has Monday the 26th at 20.0
There we go again – BoM predictions of heat records – Weather records set to tumble with temperatures in WA tipped to hit 50C
But the BoM predictions were shown to be rubbish after weather reality. ‘Extreme heatwave’ in WA’s north brings sizzling temperatures but no records
A quick look around Pilbara and nearby regions from this AWN map – shows that except for the Marble Bar near miss – how hollow the BoM predictions turned out.
This is how pitiful their record hot day turned out –
How could professional met people make such a huge mistake? BoM withdraws advice Alice Springs recorded its hottest day ever, blames faulty thermometer –
It just shows the pressure people in the organization must feel after a damp and mild start to January. To not take time checking that before blurting out their twaddle to the ABC. Even now at 4pm AEST this BoM page shows 46 – and the AWN page with feed from deep in the BoM shows 42 – why 42 – where did that come from if their spokesfolk are telling the ABC 41.5.
In May 2014 I got a reply from Dr Rob Vertessy, Director of the BoM – to my pointing out that the ACORN-SAT data set had about a thousand examples where a daily MAX was less than the daily MIN. Dr Vertessy said that he expected that these errors would be corrected in an updated version of ACORN-SAT in the second half of 2014.
I just checked ACORN data for Alice Springs back to 1986 and the exact errors discovered by Ed Thurstan in 2013 are still there.
I have not got time to check for a thousand errors so I am assuming the ACORN update is running late. I am not surprised – as I point out in my articles examining ACORN data for Cobar – the ACORN methodology is illogical – relying on computer driven data mining comparisons hundreds of km from Cobar while ignoring data much more adjacent. Cobar ACORN I and Cobar ACORN II. The BoM should save taxpayers some money and scrap the ACORN disaster now.
Sun spot numbers have for nine months now been forming a shoulder in the 60 to 90(RI) range – November RI number was 70.1 and December 78.
Sunspot chart updated through December –
The much predicted and ballyhooed 2014 El Nino hopes remain just that – warmista dreams – as SOI numbers remain as I said muddling around beneath the El Nino threshold. No one doubts another El Nino will arive sometime – but despite the $Billions spent on warmista climate research facts are nobody knows when the next El Nino arrives. Note: The Nov 2014 post has been listed private because it turned out to be a spam magnet attracting 5,000+ per day spam comments. Who understands it.
The BoM has jumped out of the blocks to say 2014 was the third hottest year for Australia after 2013 and 2005. Of course it helps to realize the BoM is talking about their stroked tweaked and warmed ACORN data series. You can make maps at this BoM site but it is AWAP data not ACORN I think. Note how 2005 map is blighted with the “National Night Time Hotspot” in the SW of NT. Love that error ridden BoM data.
The ABC has an article where you can load annual mean temperature decile maps going back 100 years.
But RSS satellites are saying the 36 year trend for Australia warms less than the Indian Ocean. Fascinating.
For all of 2014 now an assortment of warmists have sounded fanfares about the upcoming El Nino – even “Super El Nino” – prayer mats out begging the weather gods to deliver them a year hotter than 1998. But both the 30 & 90 day SOI has been rising for a month – nothing is surer than another El Nino will lurch onto the stage sometime – just has not obliged warmists by turning up this year. Rain for December.