In percentage terms – plenty of rain across our north this month which is usually the start of the dry.
Some of the high rain areas on this map will be worth multi-$Millions in extra agricultural production. The plus 400% contour should be a bit wider east and SE of Darwin – where two outback stations scored +100mm on the 10th.
The centre of our largest urban heat island reached 34.2 on 6 Apr 2016 topping 33.9 from 5 Apr 1986.
Other stations I have checked that were open in 1986 were all hotter in April 1986.
Sydney Airport 34.7 on 6 Apr 2016 but 35.7 on 4 Apr 1986
Bankstown AP 35.8 on 6 Apr 2016 but 36.9 on 4 Apr 1986
Parramatta Nth 35.2 on 6 Apr 2016 but 37 on 4 Apr 1986
Richmond RAAF(067105) 36.6 on 6 Apr 2016 but Richmond RAAF(067033) 38.2 on 4 Apr 1986
The ABC TV weather news was beating up Penrith but that station did not open until 1995 and there seems to be no other Penrith station – tough – what liars.
Looking at the state I have checked Goulburn, Condobolin, Cobar, Bourke – the first 3 were all hotter in Apr 1986. Bourke Post Office was hotter 3 times between 1906 and 1922. So just now I can not find that 6 April made a record hot day anywhere in NSW except Sydney Obs Hill – any suggestions? This would be remarkable.
I know satellites are not measuring the surface but in true scale across Australia the height range of the lower troposphere they sense would be similar in scale to onion skin.
RSS and UAH
BoM finds plenty heat at surface.
The ABC acts as the BoM faithfull media lapdog – March temperatures sets record as hottest ever, Bureau of Meteorology says – We can see the duplicity in the way the article fails to be explicit about mentioning daytime temperature but in fact where they say “…reaching 1.7 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.” That is the MEAN they are talking about (max + min/2) and we all know the mean is little talked about. This beaten-up “Hottest March” did NOT have the hottest days, 1986 had way hotter days. Here are the anomaly charts first.
March max history 2016 no record despite ACORN tweaks
March mean history 2016 sneaky ACORN created record that BoM trumpets
March min history 2016 big record helped by ACORN tweaks – BoM silent on meteorological reasons for the min record
SE Australia 1940 March max hottest by a country mile despite ACORN tweaks
SE Australia 2016 March min record helped by ACORN tweaks
SE Australia 2016 March mean record helped by ACORN tweaks but a mystery how the narrow min record goes with the cooler max result to just give the mean a record by a nose
Now the anomaly maps – March max only a pussy of a hot month – 1986 March max – now there are hot days –
March min – oops there is the NNTHS
No hot March nights at Giles – our only purpose built professionally staffed met station in central Australia – shame about that.
The BoM thinks our Indian summer is important enough to rush out Special Climate Statement 55 – prolonged March heatwave affects many parts of Australia – I noticed Canberra mentioned in the table on page 15 and ran a few checks –
The BoM Time Series page (based on Acorn) shows that for NSW and SE Australia March 1940 had the hottest max but in their page 15 table the BoM are quoting successive days over 30 or 35 or whatever.
My chart shows the progression of the days for 1940 vs 2016 and we will see what can be said next month.
And of course we know that few stations have daily data digitised before 1957.
BoM staff cuts at regional weather stations were flagged a month ago – so here is a response in local Cobar news. These marked blue are the sites likely to be de-staffed.
My main point is that these stations will be like Cobar – designated Met Offices properly staffed – which should be a step up in importance from the hundreds of smaller sites where volunteers or part timers take weather readings. IMHO a crazy decision that will affect data quality in years to come. In the context of the Australian economy – what will the savings be? In the context of the cost to us of greedy politicians – what will the savings be? There is much more at www.michaelsmithnews.com/
We have all seen the media beat ups about the “Great Four day Perth heatwave 7th to 10th Feb 2016” – never a mention that that the ever expanding Perth urban heat island UHI might contribute to this event. Credit where credit is due though, the original BoM forecast was pretty good. Unlike their Brisbane and Queensland efforts this year.
Check out the statistics assembled by Chris Gillham in Perth – his website has much information on WA and Perth climate matters. Interesting that Perth Airport temperature data shows the “Great Four day Perth heatwave 7th to 10th Feb 2016” was exceeded by several past events at that site.
From Dec 2013 – Warming departure in UAH lower troposphere satellite temperatures compared to RSS over the period 2005-2006 – I emailed UAH at the time and their responses are in the link. Now Their beta V6.0 warms much more that V5.6 over Australia – go figure. Data from KNMI using the Australia mask. Both UAH versions warm more that the BoM ACORN data while RSS does not see that extent of warming.
The trends by Excel for the 37 years 1979-2015 are –
RSS = 0.26
BoM ACORN = 0.49
UAH V5.6 = 0.58
UAH v6.0 beta = 0.88
Now of course the warmistas at The Conversation are dining out on this. Ignoring RSS.
On 1st & 2nd Feb 2016 the Perth region has had record breaking cold mornings.
See comments by Ubique and wazsah #’s 5 and 6 here. Make max and min anomaly maps at BoM.
Click for min T anomaly for WA on 1st Feb odd the contour colours are not darker blue near Perth.
Max T anomaly for WA 1st Feb – cold day on Goldfields due cyclone Stan shooting through I suppose.
Poor old BoM seldom takes a trick – make your own temperature maps – make your own Outlook maps.
The BoM predicted cool over SE SA, west Vic through Tas and all that turned out warm. The main BoM predicted cool spot was the Pilbara coast and that too turned out warm. They predicted heat on the entire Eastern seaboard but that was mainly average to not very warm. Vast areas of WA and NT predicted warm but turned out cool – long range forecasting is a bitch. Only win I can see is the far north tropics.
BoM should abandon these Outlooks and save some money for taxpayers.
and real world below