Errors in IPCC climate science

I was interested in this Sydney Morning Herald article with various statements about recent warm conditions in Sydney.
When you search for the headline – Cooler weather to mark start of winter – at the SMH website you get this intro text at the link –
“Another warm month makes the last 12 the hottest June-May stretch on record for Australia…think about that over the wet, cool weekend.” So I thought about that – take a look at the BoM map of maximum temperature anomalies for the 12 months ended 31st May. See that the highest ranking anomalies are in areas where the data is most scarce. Note that Alice Springs with data from ~1878 is the longest term station by far near these BoM high rank red anomalies. Checking Alice Springs history at this BoM site you need to copy and paste data for Alice Springs Post Office 15540 and then Alice Springs Airport 15590. Updating recent months from here.
You find that the 12 months ending 31 May 2013 averaged 30.6 – the 12 months ending 31 May 1881 averaged 30.8 – and the 12 months ending 31 May 1893 averaged 30.7. So I am left with the suspicion that if we had adequate historic data over Australia – then the statement – “Another warm month makes the last 12 the hottest June-May stretch on record for Australia…think about that over the wet, cool weekend.” – would be even harder to justify.
Any warmth in Autumn is at least partly due to the ever growing Urban Heat Island over Sydney. Rarely mentioned by the BoM and their supporters.
Another claim in the article – “Autumn registered only six days of days below 20 degrees…”. Attempts to paint Autumn as unusually warm – yet look at the BoM maps of maximum temperature anomalies for autumn – amazing anomalies of zero to 1 degree C. Near normal weather – what an utter non-event.

This month the BoM announced “Seasonal Climate Outlook released today using a new model” but it will take more than a new model and colour scheme to get lipstick onto this pig. The BoM three month Outlooks are useless, should be abandoned and the money saved for more successful and worthy projects.
The temperature Outlook for Autumn has been a typical miserable failure.
Maximum temperature Outlook and real world maximum anomalies result

Minimum temperature Outlook and real world minimum anomalies result

An interesting call because Perth Regional Office weather station 9034 never recorded a minimum of 0°C for any month in all the years 1897-1992, see my table below. Chris Gillham has an account of the history of the various locations for Perth weather instruments.
BoM forecast late afternoon 30 May 2013 -

From 1993 and current Perth weather is recorded at “Perth Metro” which is at Mount Lawley near Edith Cowan University. As my table shows Perth Metro like Perth Regional Office has never recorded a frost in May and probably will not this morning. It looks obvious to me from my table that the ever growing Perth urban heat island has suppressed frost over a century while stations more peripheral to Perth commonly record frosts in the cooler months.

Read the rest of this entry »

Guest article by Ed Thurstan – April 28, 2013
Abstract
The second release of ACORN-SAT confirms my 2012 contention that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology this temperature database should be withdrawn. The gross arithmetical errors it displayed in 2012 that were generated by the BoM’s data refining processes are still evident in the latest release. This indicates that the BoM either has not checked the product as stated, or they do not care that their errors are on public display.
Yet the BoM are using this database to support public statements about the climate, extreme temperature events and possible future trends.
Read full article in 600KB pdf

Remembering all the propaganda and media hype about endless temperature records and heatwaves during our hottest ever summer courtesy of the BoM.
Plus our Angry summer courtesy of the Climate Commission. It is pertinent to recall how the BoM maximum (daytime) temperature Outlook visualized summer.
Can you believe with a huge cool trough running east-west through the centre of the continent – almost the exact opposite of the real world weather. What fantasy land does the BoM inhabit ?
All 4 map panels have Outlook forecast on left and real world weather temperature anomalies on the right.

The minimum (night-time) Outlook has many failings.

The maximum Outlook for Jan-Feb-Mar failed to forecast the prominent cool anomaly in far Eastern Australia.

The minimum Outlook for Jan-Feb-Mar failed on more points than the maximum Outlook

You can check the BoM Outlooks archives for temperature and rainfall.
BoM temperature and rainfall anomaly maps for various parameters and timescales can be made at their Maps – Recent & Past Conditions page.

This puzzles me.
In early March I questioned the BoM about a possible discontinuity in Perth Metro readings in July 2011 which had the effect of seeming to increase Perth Metro temperatures relative to Perth Airport.
The BoM reply dated 21 March (see below) said that their readings at both sites were correct and that the 2011/12 summer heat in Perth Metro and Swanbourne relative to “sites further inland”, which I assume includes Perth Airport, were “…potentially attributable to very warm conditions recorded in local sea surface temperatures and observed weaker sea breezes.” My 22 March post re the first BoM reply – see my comment 2 with their second reply see below.

I am amazed the BoM never mentioned these SST and weaker sea breeze factors in their “Perth seasonal climate summaries” for 2011/2012 Perth in summer 2011/12: A wet and warm summer and 2012/2013 Perth in summer 2012/2013: One of hottest summer
If the warm SST ‘s and associated weaker sea breezes are a factor in hiking Perth Metro summer max temperatures up to near the warmth of Perth Airport – then this is surely vital and very interesting information about the Perth climate to share with Australians.

This article from the Perth newspaper “The Sunday Times” 24th Feb 2013 says it with crystal clarity in the first paragraph.

But what did reality look like ? Well Perth Metro daytimes were 1.7° under normal and nights were 0.5° under. I think the blue shading here conveys that we are not dealing with sweltering heat.

The actual Perth district daily max and min temperatures for March 2013 can be seen here – and I have saved a large copy.
I wonder if The Sunday Times would listen to being told about this BoM failure.

In early March I posted – Perth Metro BoM station 09225 looks to be reading too warm from mid-2011 – could much publicised summer hot days be exaggerated ? – and sent the following fax to the BoM Perth Office asking if they would check this out and let me know what they found. I also faxed BoM head office. Read the rest of this entry »

Scientists at NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center & RS Information System, Inc. McLean, Virginia have developed a “…station observation based global land monthly mean surface air temperature dataset at 0.5° x 0.5° latitude-longitude resolution for the period from 1948 to the present…”
The gridded data – 1948-now: CPC GHCN/CAMS t2m analysis (land) – is available at KNMI Climate Explorer Monthly Observations page and a 515KB pdf paper can be downloaded.
Choosing CPC GHCN/CAMS t2m data from 45°South to 10°South and 110°East to 155°East and comparing with the data constructing the BoM “Time series graphs” for Mean Temperature for Australia for Summer – then downloading the “Raw data set”.
Here is the comparison graphed.

It is obvious that the CPC GHCN/CAMS t2m analysis produces a very different ranking of Australian historic summer heat. While 2013 was the hottest summer in the BoM heavily adjusted ACORN SAT data – the CPC GHCN/CAMS t2m analysis finds that 1983 was a clear winner for the hottest summer and 1973 missed out by only 0.00135°C.
Here are the rankings of the top ten hot summers for each data set.

Thanks to Ian George for noticing this recent large change in the ranking of 2009 compared to 1998 in the BoM chart of annual mean temperature anomalies.
The charts come from the BoM Annual Australian Climate Statement 2011 and Annual Australian Climate Statement 2012.
Animation of the graphs for two years.