No doubt a headline event for the WA Watercorporation. There seems to be errors in the BoM map for example the 100% line should go west from Perth to the coast on basis Swanbourne and Rottnest – see data at AWN map. The brown area NNE of Wagin seems to lack data justification too in stations I can see at the CDO map. For large map.
We blogged on this subject 6th July – But sceptics have been busy behind the scenes as evidenced by Jennifer Marohasy who has blogged a deliciously misleading letter of explanation from the BoM to Minister Frydenberg. Oh how quick the BoM colossus can respond when the Minister’s office calls.
Today Jennifer and Lance have made the front page of The Australian. For large picture. I can hear the BoM molars grinding from here.
I think this is the text of the article – came in by email Continue reading Persistent truth telling climate sceptics cause the BoM to shaft itself again
I had Lance staying overnight and this subject came up – me opining after watching too much ABC TV news for years – that some site must have hit the 50° in the last several years. When Lance pointed out on BoM pages that the last 50° plus was in 1998 – I felt somewhat conned. We searched Google and sure enough we found this article “The proof Australia is getting hotter” – which includes this rather specific claim – Quote “While Western Australia had a cooler than average year in 2016, some parts of the giant state did hit 50 degrees, Australia’s observation of such heat a first in two decades.” Well if 50 was hit it was not noticed in official BoM daily data. Screen saved. What an amazing lie – “fake news” indeed. Part of my conning was BoM news early in 2013 of the extension of temperature scales up into the 50’s. Oddly this neat animated map from Feb 2016 does not extend to cool temperatures around -10 that are quite common this winter. What other plus 50’s (122F) are there that the BoM should recognize?
Minus 10.4 degrees C was recorded originally at GOULBURN AIRPORT AWS (070330) which was filed by blogger Lance who noticed the BoM rapidly altered this to -10. Jennifer Marohasy blogged on the issue 4 July and passed the info on to a journalist who asked the BoM if they could explain. BoM said they have a “QC” auto function clipping off extremes in case there are errors. And this caused the reset to -10°. JM blogs again on 5 July. This revelation of raw data trimmimg is brand new to many of us who monitor BoM data – but OK thats what the BoM says happened. Jo Nova is also onto the issue. Lance and I checked BoM AWAP maps for NSW daily minimum temperature and noticed the contouring was hugely in error when checked against actual minimums. I have NSW daily minimum temperature maps offline for the 1st July – 2nd July and 3rd July. Just looking at data from the Southern Tablelands region (the white O circles the Goulburn and Canberra localities.) Goulburn is in the wrong contour zone all 3 days. Canberra Airport should be well into the -6 to -9 zone on all 3 days – yet it is always plotted on the boundary of the -3 to -6 and -6 to -9 zones. Always wrong. Taralga about 40km NNE of Goulburn (approx marked white T) read -7° on the 1st & 2nd yet the correct -6 to -9 degrees zone boundary is way too far west on those days. Yass recorded -8.7 on the 2nd yet the contouring has Yass in the next warmer zone. Likewise Cooma on the 3rd should be in the -6 to -9 zone but is shown in the next warmer zone. I expect readers might find errors in other parts of the State – or in other States
With so many errors I wonder what purpose these maps can be fit for. On the issue of the BoM clipping sub -10° readings back to an even -10. Lance mentioned to me these very cold reading from Goulburn Aero Club 70210 in July 1971 – down to -13.9°. Cop that 14 days of frosts in 1971!! Worth noting too the all time coldest Canberra Airport min was -10 on 11 Jul 1971. So setting -10 as an alarm was somewhat odd and without sound scientific foundations – but Hey!! it is the BoM.
Previous was -5.9 in 1968 – have not yet tried other early Canberra sites. Records in Deniliquin, Young, Cootamundra, West Wyalong.
I blogged over two years ago on the BoM moving their main Adelaide weather instruments site from Kent Town to West Terrace not far from where the site was from the 1800’s up to 1979. In April 2015 I said – Bureau of Meteorology delusions about the urban heat island revealed in news of relocation (again) of Adelaide weather instruments – And now we see West Terrace is starting its new life warmer at night than Kent Town – assuming the BoM have had time to iron out any instrument faults – there is a gap of 4 hours at West Terrace on the 15th. If readers wanted to do any night time vehicle/temperature traverses – data might be interesting.
Link for larger chart
Main predicted dry core of Outlook exactly wrong – gotta love those Outlooks.
Forecast rain at BoM – Real world rain at BoM. Maps kept for posterity – April 2017 Outlook – Actual rain percentage.
This story from near Longford in Tasmania makes out rain for June 2016 was due to “climate change” – yet Longford data shows several years with higher June rain.
Just for curiosity – data from BoM CDO – 1955-2016 61 years.
Excel says cooling at 0.00397° per year.
Casey and Davis have shorter records – I did not look at those minimums.
The March Outlook
March percent rain