There we go again – BoM predictions of heat records – Weather records set to tumble with temperatures in WA tipped to hit 50C
But the BoM predictions were shown to be rubbish after weather reality. ‘Extreme heatwave’ in WA’s north brings sizzling temperatures but no records
A quick look around Pilbara and nearby regions from this AWN map – shows that except for the Marble Bar near miss – how hollow the BoM predictions turned out.
This is how pitiful their record hot day turned out –
How could professional met people make such a huge mistake? BoM withdraws advice Alice Springs recorded its hottest day ever, blames faulty thermometer –
It just shows the pressure people in the organization must feel after a damp and mild start to January. To not take time checking that before blurting out their twaddle to the ABC. Even now at 4pm AEST this BoM page shows 46 – and the AWN page with feed from deep in the BoM shows 42 – why 42 – where did that come from if their spokesfolk are telling the ABC 41.5.
In May 2014 I got a reply from Dr Rob Vertessy, Director of the BoM – to my pointing out that the ACORN-SAT data set had about a thousand examples where a daily MAX was less than the daily MIN. Dr Vertessy said that he expected that these errors would be corrected in an updated version of ACORN-SAT in the second half of 2014.
I just checked ACORN data for Alice Springs back to 1986 and the exact errors discovered by Ed Thurstan in 2013 are still there.
I have not got time to check for a thousand errors so I am assuming the ACORN update is running late. I am not surprised – as I point out in my articles examining ACORN data for Cobar – the ACORN methodology is illogical – relying on computer driven data mining comparisons hundreds of km from Cobar while ignoring data much more adjacent. Cobar ACORN I and Cobar ACORN II. The BoM should save taxpayers some money and scrap the ACORN disaster now.
Sun spot numbers have for nine months now been forming a shoulder in the 60 to 90(RI) range – November RI number was 70.1 and December 78.
Sunspot chart updated through December –
The much predicted and ballyhooed 2014 El Nino hopes remain just that – warmista dreams – as SOI numbers remain as I said muddling around beneath the El Nino threshold. No one doubts another El Nino will arive sometime – but despite the $Billions spent on warmista climate research facts are nobody knows when the next El Nino arrives. Note: The Nov 2014 post has been listed private because it turned out to be a spam magnet attracting 5,000+ per day spam comments. Who understands it.
The BoM has jumped out of the blocks to say 2014 was the third hottest year for Australia after 2013 and 2005. Of course it helps to realize the BoM is talking about their stroked tweaked and warmed ACORN data series. You can make maps at this BoM site but it is AWAP data not ACORN I think. Note how 2005 map is blighted with the “National Night Time Hotspot” in the SW of NT. Love that error ridden BoM data.
The ABC has an article where you can load annual mean temperature decile maps going back 100 years.
But RSS satellites are saying the 36 year trend for Australia warms less than the Indian Ocean. Fascinating.
For all of 2014 now an assortment of warmists have sounded fanfares about the upcoming El Nino – even “Super El Nino” – prayer mats out begging the weather gods to deliver them a year hotter than 1998. But both the 30 & 90 day SOI has been rising for a month – nothing is surer than another El Nino will lurch onto the stage sometime – just has not obliged warmists by turning up this year. Rain for December.
The Australian newspaper reported that Tony really did say this at Beaufort, Victoria, in December 2009 – Town of Beaufort changed Tony Abbott’s view on climate change
But my posts on BoM adjustments to ACORN-SAT Cobar Meteorological Office temperatures 1963-2013 Episode 1 and Episode 2 – raise a new question.
Follow the logic here. The adjustments the BoM makes in its flagship ACORN-SAT data show that they do not even trust the readings made at Cobar – a state of the art, purpose-built meteorological station, staffed by their own professionals. What they are saying is that for practical purposes it is impossible even for our modern scientific society to measure temperature consistently at a professionally managed site over multi-decades.
Yet temperature data from thousands of stations of vastly lower quality around the world – used without adjustment to prove “global warming” – are bound to carry far more errors that we know little or nothing about. And the adjustments at Cobar alone are as large as the claimed rate of “global warming” over decades.
So whatever the truth of Tony’s assessment of the whole issue, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that “climate change as measured – could well be crap”.
This is the second episode in the Cobar ACORN-SAT series examining BoM adjustments to the CDO temperature data – here I start to look at adjustments to minimum temperatures. The 1st episode looked at maximum temperatures. A list of ACORN adjustments to Cobar data is here and you can see the first min adjustment listed is 1st Jan 1972 meaning the adjustment factor applies to all data earlier than that. You will see it is labelled as “Statistical” meaning there is no evidence for it in station diaries or admin records but it derives from computer driven comparisons sifting data differences from multiple stations as far away as Parkes and Hillston – see map. In this case of the 4th adjustment the following stations data was used.
Making the chart of Cobar annual minimum temperatures compared to ACORN-SAT my eye was caught by the adjustment starting in 2006 and affecting all earlier years which I have marked with a blue 6. That is unlisted in the ACORN-SAT documentation and is substantial at about -0.4 degrees C. The slight mismatch between Cobar Met Office and ACORN from 2007-2013 is due to rounding differences because I have made my ACORN annuals by averaging a year of daily data which I leave as produced by Excel with multiple decimal places.
The next adjustment to look for is at 1971 where I have the blue 4, which is the 4th adjustment in the ACORN list and is listed at -0.49 degrees C. The increased departure of ACORN cooler than Met Office to about -0.9 is obvious on the chart.
Examining this adjustment in greater detail I have made a chart comparing Cobar MO and ACORN version with nearest neighbours Bourke, Wilcannia and Nyngan. The average difference between the 1971 & 1972 readings for these 3 stations is +0.2 at Cobar MO, +0.4 at Bourke PO, +0.4 at Nyngan, and -0.4 at Wilcannia, an average for the 3 Cobar neighbours of +0.13, not very different from the +0.2 that we know happened at Cobar Met Office. But instead of leaving the higher quality Cobar Met Office readings well alone – what does the BoM decide to do with their adjustment #4? They take off 0.49° making the 1971-1972 difference now 0.7 – greater by 0.3 than any of the neighbours. Presumably the BoM justify this by their computer driven comparisons with sites as distant as Parkes.
If the reasons for an adjustment can not be seen in nearest neighbours then it must be an exercise in fantasy to search for a reason in a cherry picked array of more distant stations which are all of poorer quality than Cobar Met Office.
It is interesting to check the differences in annual minimums between Cobar Met Office and Cobar Airport which are only about 7 or 8 km apart. You might expect them to be very similar and in lockstep – not so from the chart.
Note the BoM never refer to Cobar Airport data in ACORN-SAT – but we are free to check it out.
First there is no evidence here of a step or jump around 2006 – 2007.
While there are such wildly varying and apparently random differences between these two very adjacent sites – what on earth can the BoM learn by comparing Cobar with Parkes – or indeed any other station in their adjustments list.
These are the sort of unsafe foundations that pro-IPCC climate science is based on.
A reader has asked me to look at how ACORN-SAT has adjusted Cobar temperature data. Cobar is an old site with Post Office data from 1881 – then in 1963 the BoM opened the Cobar Met Office on the north side of town. Map from Google Earth with MO marked by “green X”. Detail of Met Office – note housing adjacent. A Met Office is of course purpose built and staffed by BoM professionals. Then in 1994 an Airport station commenced with an AWS.
ACORN-SAT starts with a positive adjustment to the max of 0.41 prior to 1 Jan 1995. Table of ACORN-SAT adjustments for Cobar. I will start by examining the evidence for that first adjustment 1 Jan 1995. This chart shows Cobar district annual max t data from 1963 – the 3 Cobar station plus Bourke PO and Airport – then Wilcannia and Nyngan. All data from the BoM CDO www site. I have marked the year 1995 with a “green 1″ – and the first adjustment to Cobar Met Office is indicated by the “green 2″.
Here is a map of NSW showing all stations used in the various ACORN-SAT adjustments of Cobar. Here is a list of stations used in the first adjustment (1 Jan 1995) – the only one we will discuss at this time.
An important note – BoM ACORN-SAT does NOT use Cobar Airport data, despite the two stations only being about 7km apart and as the chart shows the Airport and MO annual max data are in near lockstep as you would expect.
I am saying this first adjustment is invalid for the following reasons.
 The Airport data for 1994 & 1995 closely agrees with Met Office so this fact must override whatever signals the BoM computes from “data mining” at diverse stations up to a few hundred kms away some in very different climate zones.
 The Cobar Met Office is a purpose built facility staffed by professionals so that data must be considered a more reliable baseline compared to amateur run sites not owned by the BoM.
 If there was a valid reason to adjust Cobar MO data prior to 1 Jan 1995 it is ludicrous to think there would not be a reason revealed in the Met Office admin records.
That is my case that the ACORN-SAT version of Cobar fails at the first hurdle.
There has been much valid criticism of ACORN-SAT in recent months and the entire project must be scrapped.
The BoM was asked to calculate the climate of the Canberra district in the process of deciding on a location for the Australian Federal Capital Territory – Chris Gillham alerted me to this report and he has his own comments on the data in a 1Mb pdf report.
Looking at the temperature data in the Table on page 7 & 8 of the pdf report I decided to check on Goulburn, Cooma and Yass getting data from BoM CDO.
In the case of Goulburn the annual mean temperature was 56.1°F for the 46 years prior to 1910 – this equates to 13.4°C and the station was at an altitude of 702m. Now Goulburn Airport is at an altitude of 640m so the 13.4 in town would equate to 14 at the Airport assuming a standard lapse rate. The Airport in the ten years 2004-2013 averaged 13.1 – so even if we take of 0.2 from the Goulburn Town temperature for possible non-Stevenson screen exposure – we still have Goulburn 105 years ago 0.7 degrees warmer than the last ten years.
In the case of Cooma the annual mean temperature was 54°F for the 44 years prior to 1910 – this equates to 12.2°C and the station at Lambie Street was at an altitude of 812m. Now Cooma Airport is at an altitude of 930m so the 12.2 in town would equate to 11.04 at the Airport. The Airport in the ten years 2004-2013 averaged 11.15 – If we take of 0.2 from the historic Cooma temperature for possible non-Stevenson screen exposure – Cooma 105 years ago might have averaged 10.85 or 0.3 degrees cooler than the last ten years.
Yass is complicated by stations closing in the last ten years with only one month overlap. I have done the calculations and allowing for the site change and altitude differences there is near zero difference between the Yass district pre 1910 and in the last ten years.
Upshot is there seems to be no global warming or significant climate change around Canberra since the 19th Century.
Saturday morning after 9am the ABC news 24 TV presenters crossed to a BoM staffer from Melbourne and they all talked about a possible record breaking day for Brisbane which had a forecast of 40. Oddly none of them including the BoM guy could quote what the record was (takes 20 secs online to find out). Brisbane Regional Office hit 41.2 in November 1913 – that is the record – nineteen thirteen!!! They are forecasting 40 again for Sunday – might be luckier. On Saturday Brisbane topped at 32 near 1pm but NE breezes moderated the afternoon. Amberley and Gatton further west did hit 40 and Amberley got a record 43. It was also interesting to hear TV news people Saturday evening all faithfully mentioning the “hot day” in G20 reports.