Category Archives: BoM Australia

Weather Bureau for Australia

BoM rain Outlook for Nov 2015 fails comprehensively in six days

Issued only on 29th October – the BoM rain Outlook for November crashed and burnt by the time 20% of the month had passed on 6th Nov.

Current month to date rainfall percentages for Australia
This map below of rain percentages for 1st to 6th Nov 2015 shows that vast areas have already had more rain than the Outlook predicted –

and there is 80% of the month still to come – follow the 20% line .

Puzzling why no coalition MP’s or Senators use Senate Estimates hearings to question the BoM about their ACORN temperature data adjustments

Recently Dr Jennifer Marohasy reported on a meeting of MP’s in Parliament House Canberra where the IPCC / Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) position was questioned. Sceptics and Alarmists, Together, Present to Coalition Environment Committee
This got me to wondering why adjustments to temperature data in the BoM ACORN data are never examined during Senate Estimates hearings. All it would take is an MP or Senator or two prepared to put a bit of actual work into understanding a little series of questions and the spreadsheet data behind them. Senate Estimates hearings are public and segments are often featured on TV news.

So Minister Greg Hunt ‘killed’ the excellent idea from Tony Abbott’s department for a Bureau of Meteorology review

Now I suppose we are stuck for evah with these insane year after year, after year, after year, after year errors by the ignorant BoM for evah.

On the other hand maybe it is just by chance true that the hottest night-time temperature anomaly across all Australia – just so happened to be at the same outback airstrip in the Northern Territory every year from 2002 to 2007 incl. Yair that makes sense – must make sense to the idiot BoM.
The ABC reports here and here – Jo Nova reports on an expose of massively corrupted BoM data.

Andrew Bolt reports on NOAA’s exaggerated claim that July 2015 was the hottest month on Earth since records began

Great to see a blog such as Andrew Bolt tackling climate misinformation. – Sydney Liberal MP Craig Kelly is curious. Well for a start NOAA is talking mean temperature – an average of max and min. Some of the quotes at Andrew Bolt refer to the daily max. But still there are many cases where the mean temperature Australian data contradicts the NOAA percentile map – Australian sector shown here.

NOAA does have an anomaly map that looks less exaggerated but still wrong in places.

Andrew Bolt asks – Why is the NOAA map for Australia running so very warm? The answer is probably that the GHCN version quoted by NOAA has been adjusted so the past is too cool hence shows too much warming – similar to the BoM ACORN data. It is also likely the SST’s data is similarly fiddled warmer. But how NOAA can publish such way out rubbish is beyond me.
Just taking two examples from grid squares on the NOAA anomaly map – Alice Springs Airport mean temperature and East Sale Airport – both contradict the NOAA anomaly map and of course the even crazier percentile map. Choose your region – then click on July in menu bar – Brisbane also looks a dud for NOAA. Andrew Bolt now shows the BoM July 2015 mean t anomaly to assist readers to check on NOAA.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicted a warm winter in 2015- monster fail in South East Australia

Tasmania’s winter coldest in nearly 50 years, Bureau of Meteorology says – that is since 1966
Melbourne shivers through coldest winter in 26 years, no warm start to Spring in sight – that is since 1986
Canberra’s coldest winter in 15 years and wettest in 10 years finally ending
And the BoM prediction of a warmer than normal winter in SE Australia – look at Tasmania. Have readers got any other reports of cold regions this winter ?
Here are maps of actual winter weather to compare with the winter predictions linked above – First Rain –
Now max temperature –

and min temperature

Was the automating of Australian lighthouses in the 1990’s a policy stupidity ?

Just thinking back to the de-personning of our lighthouses – what net money was saved? – Wondering how useful it would be to have human surveillance at those site now with all the emphasis on border protection, not to mention preventing smuggling and the odd search and rescue event etc.
There has been a negative effect on temperature data – just look at the Cape Otway 90015 record and see the gaps and data degradation after the introduction of AWS in 1994.
And this a world heritage science observing site from the late 1800’s.

Australian BoM claim that Perth has had the warmest June ever is not true everywhere around Perth

Keen eyed readers warned me of this news – Warmest June temperatures for Perth
Working down this station list for the Perth region – In a few days the June 2015 archive will be visible. I have the page saved offline if anybody wants it emailed. Badgingarra had 20.6 last month but in 1985 saw 20.9.
Garden Island had 19.9 equal with 2006. Gingin Aero has 20.9 but saw 22.9 in 1996 and 21 in 2000. Karnet had 17.8 but saw 18.1 in 2006. Rottnest Island at 19.7 was equal to 1997.
Looking around at other stations some closed – Guildford Post Office saw 21.3 in 1944. Upper Swan Research saw 21.6 in 1983. Rottnest Lighthouse read 20.2 in 1949.
I ask if you could take out a century of urban heat island UHI growth – would the BoM claim stand up? I think on balance no doubt last month was very warm in Perth but the claim of “warmest ever” is not the most robust of claims to trumpet from the centre of a huge urban area.

Australian BoM names Raquel as their first ever recorded July cyclone – but BoM memories are faulty

The BoM has said that a tropical low north east of the Solomons might develop into a tropical cyclone. First news on 30 June.
There are references to July cyclones if you search the National Library of Australia online newspaper database TROVE – as reader silligy has done and kindly emailed.
I would guess that most usages of the term cyclone refer to inconvenient wet weather that was not due to what we would term a “tropical cyclone” these days.
However a SE Qld event from 11th to 14th July 1954 reported in the Ipswich based Queensland Country Life has the hallmarks of being due to a borderline Category 1 tropical cyclone. Readers can judge for themselves and who knows better examples might lurk within TROVE.
Scroll down this link for rain over Brisbane region July 1954. Not a bad rain event in many places.
Here is a rain anomaly map for July 1954.
Checking Daily max wind gusts – yes on 12th July 1954 Brisbane RO and Airport both topped 100kmh max gust which I think puts it in Cat 1 class. Bearing in mind winds might have been higher at sea and at the lighthouses if data existed – and even higher if modern BoM wind speed models could be applied.
So – on balance it looks to me as if the BoM have short memories.
Stop Press – Just found these headlines at Trove – you can find the 14th.

Trove has no Courier Mail for the 13th
But the 14th –

The BoM is a disgrace – too often misinforming Australia about our weather history – the BoM must be reformed.