I checked gas and electricity wholesale prices data for 2017 and the claim in the AFR Monday – South Australia’s power now cheaper than coal-fired states – Ross Garnaut –
Any notion that this is due to some triumph of wind power fails to examine the dominant driver of SA electricity which is gas. The main sources of dispatchable electricity for SA are the Adelaide gas fired power stations. Then there are the interconnectors drawing on Vic coal fired power.
The three large States which are all dominated by coal fired power are all seeing reduced wholesale prices in 2017 as the Feds and Prime Minister attack high power prices.
Credit where due – PM Turnbull is having a win with falling gas prices – Larger chart. Chart from 2012
but it seems a secret. I started warning of exploding energy prices on 6 June 2016 – did that pan out. Can update through Oct when data available. Top Link. I should have added for some that despite the Abbott/Turnbull Govts being lame ducks – by that I mean unable to get legislation through the Senate unless it has a GreenLabor flavour – the Feds have existing powers over exports. So a whisper to the gas majors about using the “export powers” and all of a sudden you have their undivided attention.
For what it is worth there has been a divergence last month with SA, VIC and Tas reducing in price. NSW reducing a little and Qld now more expensive than NSW.
AEMO source data – AEMO NEM Dispatch Overview – NemWatch is useful as a snapshot of generation type and demand. There was more wind in September than August but October started with a wind-drought. Large vers chart
We all made a fracking mistake, says former premier Bob Carr – try googling the headline if you get paywalled. Ex Premier Bob Carr forgets to mention the Eddie Obeid coal licence scandals that gave so much oxygen to the anti-miners and Green protesters. But why the NSW Govt went so far in changing the law around resources exploration is a mystery. We have got to this point after decades of Green-anti-development lies and exaggerations not being rebutted by industry and scientific/engineering experts. This has strengthened the ever present anti-resources industry groups who seized on the slick ready-made anti-fracking campaign imported from the US to increase their supporter base and level of activity. Now we have Green lawfare on an amazing scale, I read where there are 23,000 objections to the Santos Narrabri gas project EIS approval process.
There appears to be a huge disconnect here. AEMO schedules 1800MW from Liddell for the next five summers screenshot from AEMO NSW xlsx file.
Yet if you Google “agl liddell” you see a plethora of AGL statements such as.
Liddell power station is “Geriatric” says AGL –
Liddell power station on ‘sliding scale to oblivion’, AGL ays –
AGL has said it is “fighting a losing battle”…at its ageing Liddell power station –
Liddell power station in NSW is seen by its owner as ready to close –
AGL faces a huge daily challenge to keep Liddell coal-fired power station running –
OK, you get the impression. No wonder AGL values Liddell at $0.
Let us get back to the huge disconnect I referred to. Does AGL say one thing to the media and another to AEMO? Or does AEMO just invent scheduled numbers for Liddell? Is there any obligation on AGL to tell the truth to AEMO?
To improve South Australian grid security AEMO made recommendations to keep more “real” generation online. Real = “fossil fuel” which for SA means only gas or diesel. The SA Govt created its Energy Security Target (EST), a key plank of its $550 million energy plan. The EST is in fact a reverse or counter RET – so the EST was a sound move to attempt a bandaid repair of the damage caused by destroying the coal fired power stations in Port Augusta. Now we see the mega-powerful renewables/storage lobby has monstered the SA Govt who have now postponed EST to the outer darkness in 2020. You could not make this storyline up.
Reading down the ABC page time and again I am thinking – “mention the Hazelwood minus 1600MW that Vic has next summer compared to last” – But no – Hazelwood is never mentioned. The author also never makes the link to NSW that just survived a blackout on 10 Feb this year. So next summer SA – Vic – NSW are 1600MW more likely to be in load shedding events compared to last summer – more than ever weather dependent. Mad.
Read the notices for yourself – Here is the reason – five or six hours of forecast prices at negative$1000
As I have said before – Loony-toon. Facts are over decades our elected representatives have destroyed our once well run and cheap electricity system.
Latest daily data to end August. Large chart