Thoughts on Christchurch earthquake data

Curiosity got me to download NZ earthquake data from the GNS Science webpage.

My graphic shows clearly that there was a relatively quiet period in September

Akaroa seismic zone

at the time that GNS said on the 14th Sep- “Canterbury could get at least two more aftershocks of magnitude 5.0 or higher, but the risk of a bigger earthquake is fading by the hour, GNS Science says.”

They also said – “Gerstenberger said the aftershock figures had been updated daily, and it had been a ‘textbook’ sequence”.

Then further in the article – “GNS spokesman John Callan said there was now only a remote chance of a magnitude 6.0 aftershock.” With the benefit of hindsight – I wonder if GNS told authorities that their mid Sept optimism had failed to pan out – and that by late January there had been four aftershocks over magnitude 5.

I have to say I do not like the 23 Feb statement on the Geonet webpage – where they say “…slow decrease in general activity had made it less likely.”

Also on Radio Australia on the 23rd Feb GNS are saying that all the activity is aftershocks re Darfield.

The frequency of shocks had gone down but the data shows the persistence of several magnitude 5 shocks post September.

I am saying that the data can be looked at this way:
[1] The Darfield earthquake aftershocks were mostly over by late September.
[2] Then by October a new event had commenced – an earthquake swarm with activity more dispersed in time – with 3 shocks of magnitude 5.1 in October – the mag 4.5 & 4.9 at Christmas – then the 5.1 in January – in the next four weeks there was only 5 shocks between 4 to 4.5 magnitude.
[3] Then the terrible surprise of Lyttelton.

Our knowledge of this new seismic zone is so short – there may yet be twists and turns on the road ahead.

Useful earthquake animation map.
If you want to help victims with a donation – The Salvation Army has an appeal site – specify Christchurch earthquake appeal

Spare a thought for the BoM – it has been a tough six months for Australian warmists

The week of hot weather in Sydney early in February must have raised spirits in the BoM and other followers of the IPCC bandwagon. I would guess that this induced a hyper-excited state that lead to such a shoddy “SPECIAL CLIMATE STATEMENT 27″. Let us remember that the last six months of maximum temperature (day-time) anomalies looks pretty much cool for the vast majority of the continent.
Six cool months in Oz
Then along came Cyclone Yasi which coincided with the one week NSW heat wave – January 30th and February 6th.
Here is the max anomaly map for week ending 8th Feb –
Max anomalies in Yasi week
note the extensive cool anomalies compared to what is left of the heat wave – I must remember to get a map that ends at 6th Feb.
And the last week available is pretty much cool too.
Max anomalies week ended 15 Feb

Resignation of Australian “Chief Scientist – Dr Penny Sackett

I was curious when this news broke – I have always regarded the post as strange – an almost irrelevant little playpen – surely it would be better for the Govt to tap advice from experts in the academies or universities on a case by case basis – rather than as in this case relying numero uno on an Astronomer. So why not abolish the post now and save the few millions. I think the timing of the resignation hardly a week after the Govt appointed Prof Tim Flannery to the Climate Change Commission – speaks volumes. Interested to hear what readers think.
Apparently today Dr Sackett might – “…let rip at Senate hearing” – wow that will terrify the Gillard Gang.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology can not mention Sydney urban heat island

In the BoM “SPECIAL CLIMATE STATEMENT 27″ – An exceptional summer heatwave in greater Sydney and the Hunter Valley – the BoM on page 10 shows the following graphics of Sydney night-time temperatures increasing since 1859.

Page 10 BoM SCS27

The existence of an ever increasing urban heat island (UHI) in Sydney – and all other urban areas – is completely ignored in SCS27.

What an unscientific disgrace the BoM is becoming.

Nature paper beating up “extreme rain” for the warmists

A recent paper in Nature claiming an increase in extreme rain events 1951-1999 correlates with “AGW-climate change” has been given the usual uncritical acclaim in our GreenLeft media. I enjoy the originality in ABC headlines. Dr Roger Pielke Sr. has reviewed the paper.

I was surprised to see the Min et al paper only quote data for their “5 day consecutive rainfall” to 1999 – over a decade ago. Rainfall data must be in a worse state than I imagined.

I was curious to see what total rainfall data showed for the 20 to 60 degrees north band in the Northern Hemisphere –

NH rain anomalies 1951-2010

Using data I can access at the KNMI Climate Explorer up to 2010, look under “Monthly observations.”

Running the linest function in Excel over the 60 years of GHCN rain 1951-2010 – the daily rainfall anomaly has increased by 0.00026mm PA which equates to 0.0156mm over the 60 year period – which in turn equates to an extra 5.69mm PA.

I seriously doubt anybody would notice a ~1% increase in their average rainfall over 60 years – but imagine the panic stories from the warmists if the climate were drying !!

Rainfall “interlude” delays Canberra dam construction

Mr Mark Sullivan – boss of Canberra water untility ACTEW tells how Cotter River flows have caused three months delay in construction.

Puzzling that they would not have been better prepared because Mr Sullivan claims to be guided by “scarily right” (see comment 30) CSIRO climate change scenarios.

It has been plain for many months that 2010 was a wet year and in November ACT Govt people were briefed that the wet was likely ongoing into early 2011.

Put the Greens Last

In the December 2010 Victorian State election – where polls had Labor hanging on – a couple of weeks before polling day the Liberal Leader Ted Baillieu said, “The Liberal Party will preference the Greens last in all Lower House seats…”.

Here in The Age.

I think this is a sound idea for voters in all Australian elections, Federal, State or Local Body – so easy to do – put the Greens last on all ballot papers.

How about spreading the message.

Readers can send in ideas for a list of reasons, for example;

Concerned about your electricity and gas bills rising – Put the Greens Last;
Concerned about your water bills rising – Put the Greens Last;
Concerned that prescribed burns should be properly done to minimize bushfire risk – put the Greens Last.

How a party that is “anti-dam” – or anti a key component of our domestic water supplies – has ever got to the point of enjoying ~15% of the vote – I can not understand. But for the sake of Australia – this can be turned around – as Ted Baillieu has done.

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