Less than a month ago 19 Sep BoM was saying El Nino would bring us a “..Summer of severe heat..”
We remember the “brutal summer” media blitz.
Contrary to BoM media is fact that in the almost month since BoM media heralding El Nino the SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) has turned to weaker negative readings closer to the neutral zone between El Nino and La Nina.
NOBODY!! knows what the SOI will do in the future, we can only follow the numbers as published.
Yes, it would only be par for the course if the BoM bombs out again with its dire predictions for summer.
On the Voice referendum, what a slap in the face for Australia’s bien-pensant activist class!
Ordinary Aussies saw through their insincerity, as well as the grift of the “indigeneity industry”. The whole thing was fake, starting even with the supposed basic aims of the “Voice”. “Reconciliation” is a personal thing, it’s not a matter for collectivist institutional negotiation. “Closing the gap” would require assimilation, but the activists always say they don’t want that. “Treaty” implies two nations, but there never were two nations, and we shouldn’t pretend there are now. And who on earth wants a “Truth Commission” to tell them what to think about Australia’s history?
As so often in the past, a real problem has given rise to a publicly-funded grievance industry that, instead of trying to solve it, invents a world of fairy-tale abstractions and Utopian objectives.
I was thinking the same about the SOI as I updated by daily record. The end of month 30day av. SOI are as follows
Feb 10.38, Mar -2.07, Apr -1.20, May -16.18, Jun -3.19, Jul -4.05, Aug -11.00, Sep -13.87 (panic mid month), Oct estimate approx 8.00 (on 24th -8.11)
However, it has been very dry since the beginning of the year. 40-50% cumulative of average every month. Particularly in the summer months of Jan & Feb when we were still in that La Nina.
Chance now since the LNP opposition leader has withdrawn the stupid idea of a treaty, that there will be a change of government in Qld. Some MP’s are onboard with looking at climate issues, removing subsidies, and dropping welcome to the country.
Looking at the equatorial sea surface temperatures over the last 30 days also shows a recent cooling but not by huge amount. What happens next is certainly a mystery.
coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/current/animation/gif/ssta_animation_30day_45ns.gif
I was a bit out with my estimate of the end of month 30 day average SOI (-8.0). It was actually a more benign -6.68. No sign of a severe El Nino yet. However, rain still way below average 28.4 mm for October or 26% of the 130year average. Queensland is getting some bushfires because of dry conditions although spring is the bushfire season. Does not help if arson is the main cause.
If anybody sees BoM update please post.
I saw the Essential Report poll
essentialreport.com.au/
on Addressing climate change (Trend)
asking – Q. As far as you know, do you think Australia is doing enough, not enough or too much to address climate change?
Time period is Aug2016 to Oct 2023 .
Chart show more Aussies now say “Gov is doing enough or too much 53%” –
Compared to “Gov is Not doing enough 38%”
Dunno is 9%.
Concern peaked in Jan 2020 in welter of Summer of Fires constant agit/prop & fake news.
“Concern peaked in Jan 2020 in welter of Summer of Fires constant agit/prop & fake news.”
Stands to reason. Media belting everyone over the head shifts opinion for a while, then people slowly recover their common sense and start seeing things in more perspective.
Same with the Voice Referendum. A real turkey of a proposal, but pushed and shoved like mad until 70% say they support it — just because they are told all good people must. But to make it a reality, the activists have to get it passed in a referendum. This requires months of public debate, where all sorts of doubts and problems emerge and the proponents are unable to show how the thing is going to make any positive difference. When the vote finally comes, support has fallen to 40%, despite the government, the media, churches, clubs, big business, Uncle Tom Cobbly and all still supporting it with a massive propaganda campaign.
If only other government policies, especially on “global warming”, could be subjected to the same process. A few months discussion, leading up to a ballot, would expose their large costs, their tiny benefits, and the self-interest of those pushing these “solutions”. If we all got a vote, no way would we then say Yes to spending billions on solar and wind power, electric car subsidies and infrastructure, large-scale battery storage, “climate aid” to South Pacific islands that are actually growing in size, the Green Climate Fund, the Environmental Defenders’ Office, Great Barrier Reef “management” (how much management does an undersea wilderness need anyway?), and all the rest of the pointless and damaging global warming boondoggles.
You could not make this up as yesterday BoM picks a Saturday to declare an “El Nino Raincheck” yesterday forecasting a week or rain for Oz eastern seaboard to wrap spring. ABC is their chosen GreenLeft safe media transmitters. Meanwhile the SOI has from 5Nov23 wandered south towards minus 10 and as I write is minus 9.39
Major storm event on the horizon across Australia as El Niño takes a raincheck 18Nov23
www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-18/australia-weather-major-storm-event-brewing-for-november/103119960
Massive fail for BoM on Nov rainfall.
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/sco/archive/index.jsp?map=rain&outlook=median&period=month1&year=2023&month=10&day=5&y=2023&m=10&d=5
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/sco/archive/index.jsp?map=rain&outlook=median&period=month1&year=2023&month=10&day=5&y=2023&m=10&d=5
Ian George,
Thank you for that.
I felt that rainfall was pretty generous for November, and you have substantiated that.
I looked up one of the many BoM web sites to see what the average November rainfall was for Brisbane.
It told me that it was 61 cms.
I guess that when you are so busy homogenizing accurate historical data, you haven’t got much time to check whether your units are correct!!!!
Here is map of Oz rainfall percentages for Nov.
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=percent&period=month®ion=nat&year=2023&month=11&day=30
So much going on just now, hard to keep up with. If anybody has contacts with MP’s – would be a great time to suggest some questions for BoM at Estimates hearings or just questions to Minister Plibbers
too right mate
Depending on which Brisbane site, Nov rainfall average is just over 90mm for Brisbane. www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_040913.shtml
There was a report in The Aus a few days back (sorry, I didn’t keep a record note of it, mea culpa) where the gist was that some apparently influential farmer simply said that he and many others with him were using 3rd parties for weather forecasts rather than the BoM because the BoM had so contaminated rainfall prediction for late spring/early summer with the El Nino scare that many farmers had sold stock at cost because they thought they would have no feed for larger numbers. The guess here was that the BoM had become too entangled in the global warming push to remain reliable.
Amusingly, this stung the BoM into a truly panicked response. A whole sequence of contradictory excuses came tumbling out from a Dr Someone. The one that had me laughing without control was that El Nino didn’t have any real effect on Australian droughts – rather, it was the Indian Dipole, and anyway, everyone knew that the oceans were warmer now.
Not kidding here. This is how The Aus reported it.
Ian George,
Thanks again.
I am unable to find the site which indicated 61 cms.
However, I notice that most of the Bom sites quote it as cms, NOT mms.
The BoM is making the point that Cyclone Jasper is the first Qld cyclone to develop in an El Nino year. When one looks at the SOI there have been two ‘dips’ into the El Nino zone and more months in the La Nina and neutral zones. Hardly an El Nino year.
www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=SOI
The climate report for NSW in Nov says that the max mean was +2.27C above average. Yet when you check the actual sites less than 10% are 2.2C and above. I know they use the 1961-1990 means but this is really giving a false impression re temps.
www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/nsw/summary.shtml
When has any prediction by those believers in the Cult of Warming ever turned out correctly?
Anyway, Best Wishes for you this holiday season.
Graeme
Thoughts I am working on re the unprecedented disastrous year or more of failures BoM have inflicted on themselves since second half 2022.
I now have my 13 points in a webpage – Australian Federal Gov BoM Bureau of Meteorology wrong calls and walk-backs late 2022-2023
warwickhughes.com/agri16/BoM-wrong-calls2022-2023.html
This will be added to as circumstances require. Feel free to leave any comments here.
Elbo, Al Moh or what it’s name was is just not worth remembering but this law from Javier Milei is.
The sanity behind it this law should be taught to school children worldwide. Making it illegal to advertise anything paid for by taxpayers as “free” at all levels of government is so sensible.
www-perfil-com.translate.goog/noticias/politica/la-ley-omnibus-de-milei-prohibe-que-se-use-la-palabra-gratuito-para-prestaciones-o-servicios.phtml?_x_tr_sl=es&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc
Warwick … re your linked webpage of 13 points (and many thanks for pointing to my research) it’s worth noting that based on a 50/50 timeline split of ACORN anomalies, Australia’s mean temperature has effectively plateaued since March 2012 (11 years, 10 months ago).
To December 2023, the mean temp has actually cooled 0.003C in the latter half since March 2012, and that latter half includes Australia’s driest and hottest year of 2019 (based on homogenised cooler historic temps since 1910) as well as the last six months which are claimed to be the hottest ever on our planet.
Australia’s mean maximum was 0.7C warmer in Jan 2017 – Jun 2020 than in Jul 2020 – Dec 2023, according to the official BoM anomalies (mean minimum 0.07C warmer in Jan 2017 – Jun 2020).
Yes, thanks to three consecutive La Ninas (2020 mean anomaly averaging +1.13C above 1961-90; 2021 averaging +0.56C; 2022 averaging +0.50C; 2023 averaging +0.98C).
But apart from 2019 being the hottest year on record and the past six months of exceptional global heat, the latter half of 2023 was influenced by El Nino.
The 11 year and 10 month plateau may well shorten if El Nino decides to heat Australia this year, rather than its current preference for flooding rainfall, but warmists should beware the possibility of a cooling La Nina next year.
Chris and Warwick,
I record daily SOI figures. The figures for the average so far this month have gone positive which could indicate an end of the El Nino. At my place in SEQ it has rained every day this month and the total (at 284 mm for 14 days) is now well over the 130 year average for January. Also, it has been colder than normal due to the clouds and rain. I suggest that SOI mainly affects Queensland and the IOD can affect WA but not the weather in QLD. as BOM craps on. The IPO (interdecal Pacific oscillation) which is shown on Longpaddock rainfall posters is an indicator of longer term swings (30-40 years) of Australian dry (drought) and wet periods. At present it is close to neutral. BOM with their CO2 models have no idea about short or long term weather. They need to look at history of the SOI, IPO and rainfall. Temperature follows sunshine and rainfall.
PS I am thinking of updating my website
@cementafriend
” … PS I am thinking of updating my website”
Yes, please do
I think El Nino ended a while back and the SOI has been in a neutral zone – see monthly SOI chart for 2023 –
twitter.com/IPCC_Errs/status/1742327461889941682