Recent Bureau of Meteorology 3 month Outlook forecasts embarrassingly irrelevant compared to real world weather

Running a check on BoM Outlooks for the two 3 monthly periods –
Jul to Sep and Aug to Oct. Temperature Outlook archive here Rainfall Outlook archive here – All links should open in a new window.

National temperature outlook Jul Sep 2013 max and min temperatures
Jul Sep max T actual anomalies
Jul Sep min T actual anomalies

National temperature outlook Aug Oct 2013 max and min temperatures
Aug Oct max T actual anomalies
Aug Oct min T actual anomalies
The temperature Outlooks tend to be exactly the wrong shape – high around the coastal rim and low in the centre – exactly opposite to the real world anomalies.
Remembering the huge media publicity recently about record heat across Australia in September 2013 – it is inexplicable that the BoM Outlooks did not see the record September heat coming.
Jul Sep rain Outlook
Jul Sep rain actual deciles
Aug Oct rain Outlook
Aug Oct rain actual deciles
I will say it again, BoM seasonal Outlooks are so unreliable and useless the BoM should abandon producing the time-wasters. Put precious taxpayer resources to better use or just save the money.

Short term drought in North West New South Wales after several good years – $Millions paid out by Govt.

My eye was caught by this media today in the SMH –
Drought relief: $7.6m for Bourke, Brewarrina, Walgett – 21 Nov 13
Quote – Deputy Premier Andrew Stoner said producers were dealing with “extraordinarily difficult circumstances” which had left farmers and rural townships “very stressed”.
“North-west of our state is undergoing a very serious drought. The producers in those areas are talking about the lowest rainfall …in more than 100 years,” he said.
We know the last few months have not seen much rain up there – checking out the BoM Drought maps.
3 months 1 Aug 2013 – 31 Oct 2013 – large areas not in drought
6 months 1 May 2013 – 31 Oct 2013 – most areas not in drought
9 months 1 Feb 2013 – 31 Oct 2013 – vast areas not in drought
12 months 1 Nov 2012 – 31 Oct 2013 – minor areas in drought
18 months 1 May 2012 – 31 Oct 2013 – a few areas in drought
24 months 1 Nov 2011 – 31 Oct 2013 – no areas in drought
Switching to the rain decile maps now
36 months 1 Nov 2010 – 31 Oct 2013 – above average rain
36 months 1 Nov 2007 – 31 Oct 2010 – above average rain

I wonder if a few patchy areas of short term drought should qualify as – “…a very serious drought”.
Particularly when considering that averaged over six years they have had above average rain. Whatever happened to putting feed aside in good times to get through the bad.

Australian Antarctic supply ship Aurora Australis blocked by ice again

Due back in Hobart tomorrow 16 November 2013 the ships webcam at 6am on 15 Nov 13 shows it is heading SSW on the voyage from Davis base to Hobart.

The latest sitrep can be read here –

We have made slow progress over the last 24 hours due to pack ice conditions. This morning the ship was stopped and a decision made to wait for improving ice conditions (which is anticipated) rather than continuing breaking of ice at a snail’s pace consuming significant volumes of fuel. The situation will be assessed over the next 12 hours.

Cheers Tony and Mike

They were icebound on 31st October on the way to Davis – also icebound in 2012.

Maybe global warming is worse than we thought.

Linking the origins of Typhoon Haiyan to warm sea surface temperature anomalies is far from convincing

The Sydney Morning Herald ran this article – Typhoon Haiyan influenced by climate change, scientists say – there must be hundreds of articles written along the same general drift. In this case a map of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is presented by the SMH for the period 3rd to 5th Nov.

Note the location of the warm anomaly is from 160-165 East and between 5 South & 5 North.
Here is a map of Typhoon tracks including the Haiyan path extended as far east to its origins as I can find.

Note that Haiyan originated in the grid box 155-160 East and 5-10 North. A fair distance from the grid box where the weak SST anomalies highlighted in the SMH article were supposed to cause the Typhoon to form.
Note also that the storm moved westwards to near 145 East before the windspeeds attracted attention and the Typhoon was reported.
At this NOAA site you can make SST anomaly maps for 3 or 4 day periods and personally I am not seeing SST anomalies that stand out as being exceptional in late October – early November.
I have been looking for an animation of the jet streams in that region, no luck so far. I thought this page was interesting discussing the Madden-Julian oscillation.

Example where media statements are wildly at odds with rainfall history

I first heard this on ABC radio this morning – then this headline appeared online – Drought-affected grazier in western Queensland says shooting cattle the only humane option. Including this quote – “…xxxxxx’s station near Hughenden, east of Mount Isa, has not seen decent rain for three years…”
This panel of 3 maps shows rain deciles for three 12 monthly periods –

on left 1 Nov 2010 – 31 Oct 2011 – in centre 1 Nov 2011 – 31 Oct 2012 – on right – 1 Nov 2012 – 31 Oct 2013
How does the ABC publish – “…has not seen decent rain for three years…” – when the facts are so easy to check online.
Obviously the last 12 month period has seen widespread drought in Queensland – but the first two years had a lot of average and above average rain.

Canberra all time record two consecutive days of frost in November

On 4th & 5th November 2013 – you read it first here. Previous two consecutive subzero days were in 1939.

I have tried searching this in Google but nothing turns up. So I am wondering if the Bureau of Meteorology has said anything.
Would we have heard if it had been a two consecutive hottest days record ?
I think so.
For my money – crystal clear evidence of bias in the BoM.

Snowden leaks suggest Australia spied during 2007 Bali Climate Conference

The ABC reports – Leaked NSA report reveals Australia-US spying operations during Bali conference
I thought it was well known that nations have intelligence services.
Many nations secretly plan harm to other nations – thats obvious from history – still going on now.
It would be worrying if Australia did not constantly seek out the most accurate information about other nations and their intentions.
As an example of how tensions are not getting any less in the Asia Pacific region – just last week newspapers in China published information about the capability of the Chinese armed forces to strike at the USA with submarine mounted nuclear armed missiles – including this plain map.

Many of us can think back to the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, associated collapse of the USSR and the end of the Cold War – nearly 25 years ago now.
There was a prevailing belief then that international tensions had eased.
I wonder now that with the rapid rise of China – not to mention parallel growth of Islamic extremism – the world is not getting any safer anytime soon.