A reader has emailed to say,

“Virtually all GCMs result in the temperature of the troposphere at the
tropics increasing at about 1.3x that of the increase in the surface temperature. But all observations show that troposphere temp in the tropics is increasing at 1/2 to 1/3 that rate. Isn’t that proof that the greenhouse effect can not be causing an increase in surface temperature? How can something gaining less heat(trop.), heat something gaining more heat(surface)?

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The graphic below shows the differences between MSU and the Hadley Centre and GHCN/CAMS data.

A recent paper discussing long term temperature trends in China presents a graphic of century long trends including the Jones data.

“ZHAO Zongci, DING Yihui, LUO Yong, and WANG Shaowu, “Recent Studies on Attributions of Climate Change in China” , Acta Meteorologica Sinica 2005, Vol 19, 389-400.”

The caption refers to four trends from various sources being coloured but my copy was B & W. Anyway, it is clear there is much agreement and what really tweaked my interest was the strong warming post 1970.

Using the gridded data downloadable from www.CO2science.org comparisons have been made between the Jones data and the UAH / NASA satellite MSU data for the period (1979-2005). Results in Table A for a block of eight grid cells covering much of Eastern China were quite stunning in revealing a difference of 0.96 degrees C for the 27 year period 1979-2005.

Can anyone have any doubt that the reason for this huge difference is in fact the influence of rapidly expanding UHI warming on China weather station data?

Similar experiments were repeated over Europe, Central Asia / Russia, Sahara to Iran(added 18 Aug) and New Zealand. Results are set out in Table A and reveal a stark contrast to the blizzard of pro-IPCC views in recent times that global temperature datasets from the surface and lower troposhere are now in substantial agreement following corrections by the UAH team.

Any agreement in global trends between the various datasets is probably due to the averaging of various errors from here and there to give an appearance of agreement.

San Juan was studied in the 1980’s by C.E Duchon who published in 1986, "Temperature Trends at San Juan, Puerto Rico, Bull.Amer.Met.Soc. 67, 1370-1377. A downloadable pdf file of this paper is available through BAMS. Click on Print Version for Duchon, Claude E.

My 20th Anniversary Review of Jones et al 1986 explores how San Juan was specifically mentioned in Wood’s 1988 critique of Jones et al 1986. The issue of San Juan was elucidated in the Wigley & Jones reply to Wood 1988 see point (5) in my Table listing the sparring between Wood and Wigley & Jones.
Continue reading San Juan Puerto Rico, EXACTLY how UHI warming can get into global gridded T trends. →