Category Archives: Jones et al

IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Is massive UHI warming in China distorting Jones et al gridded T data ?

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A recent paper discussing long term temperature trends in China presents a graphic of century long trends including the Jones data.

“ZHAO Zongci, DING Yihui, LUO Yong, and WANG Shaowu, “Recent Studies on Attributions of Climate Change in China” , Acta Meteorologica Sinica 2005, Vol 19, 389-400.”

The caption refers to four trends from various sources being coloured but my copy was B & W. Anyway, it is clear there is much agreement and what really tweaked my interest was the strong warming post 1970.

Using the gridded data downloadable from www.CO2science.org comparisons have been made between the Jones data and the UAH / NASA satellite MSU data for the period (1979-2005). Results in Table A for a block of eight grid cells covering much of Eastern China were quite stunning in revealing a difference of 0.96 degrees C for the 27 year period 1979-2005.

Jones vs MSU trends 1979-2005

Can anyone have any doubt that the reason for this huge difference is in fact the influence of rapidly expanding UHI warming on China weather station data?

Similar experiments were repeated over Europe, Central Asia / Russia, Sahara to Iran(added 18 Aug) and New Zealand. Results are set out in Table A and reveal a stark contrast to the blizzard of pro-IPCC views in recent times that global temperature datasets from the surface and lower troposhere are now in substantial agreement following corrections by the UAH team.

Any agreement in global trends between the various datasets is probably due to the averaging of various errors from here and there to give an appearance of agreement.

Cryosphere, IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record

Svalbard inhomogenous temperature data

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The Norwegian island of Svalbard, (previously Spitzbergen) has been the locus of some abnormal warm monthly temperatures of late. See recent post on RealClimate by Drs Michael Mann and Phil Jones.

In mid 2000 I commented on the inhomogenous warm trend in Isfjord Radio data. There are comparisons with nearest neighbours, comments on the Jones et al 1986 station intercomparisons and even some comments by Dr Jones.

In conclusion I wrote:

On the basis of the Andenes and TromsØ differences, the wild variations and erratic warm drift in homogeneity between these stations should have been reason for Isfjord Radio to be rejected. No notes or reference to retaining Isfjord Radio as some special case, are to be found in Jones et al 1991 and its retention in the database represents a touching faith in geostatistics outliers.

Looking at the idea that ice melting could be the reason for the rapid warming in Spitzbegen 1912-1923, consider the global map of Jones 1994 temperature anomalies 1901-1996 in Karl 1998 and we see the the Svalbard (Spitzbergen) grid box warms at about 4 degrees, twice that of any other grid box on the planet.

If this rapid warming was due to ice melting, common sense tells us it must have happened somewhere else. A huge magnitude rapid warming such as this could not just occur in a 5 degree grid box. Look at the high northern latitudes on the Karl 1998 map and there are no other comparable examples despite a good scattering of stations above the Arctic Circle.

This case is a manifestation of the lapse in critical standards in climatology, which is after all a very new and ( up to the advent of the IPCC ), very small science.

Just to end up with an example from the real world of mineral exploration known well to the writer. Geochemical and geophysical data which are the mainstay of the orebody discovery process are littered with outlier values that if targeted with drilling would rapidly bankrupt any mineral exploration company. Exploration geologists every day have to deal with filtering out spurious signals from their geostatistics so that scarce exploration funding is not wasted.

In the current world of climatology, large amounts of greenhouse industry controlled taxpayer funded research grants will inevitably dull essential scientific scepticism.

IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

San Juan Puerto Rico, EXACTLY how UHI warming can get into global gridded T trends.

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San Juan was studied in the 1980’s by C.E Duchon who published in 1986, "Temperature Trends at San Juan, Puerto Rico, Bull.Amer.Met.Soc. 67, 1370-1377. A downloadable pdf file of this paper is available through BAMS. Click on Print Version for Duchon, Claude E.

My 20th Anniversary Review of Jones et al 1986 explores how San Juan was specifically mentioned in Wood’s 1988 critique of Jones et al 1986. The issue of San Juan was elucidated in the Wigley & Jones reply to Wood 1988 see point (5) in my Table listing the sparring between Wood and Wigley & Jones.
Continue reading San Juan Puerto Rico, EXACTLY how UHI warming can get into global gridded T trends. →

News and Views, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Urban cooling in Sweden?

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Do you know that GISS sometimes correct temperature data for supposed urban cooling? Let us look at examples from southern Sweden.

The three towns Karlstad, Jönköping, and Visby all have small airports. Of these towns, Visby is located on Gotland, the largest island in the Baltic Sea. Karlstad lies on the northern shores of the largest lake of Sweden, while Jönköping lies on the southern shores of the second largest lake. These two lakes are nearby to each other, and it seems unlikely that there could be any climate change at one of them not affecting the other.
Continue reading Urban cooling in Sweden? →

Atmospheric science, IPCC, News and Views, Surface Record

Little agreement with BoM claims 2005 was Australia’s hottest year

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The Australian BoM has made much media fanfare with its claims that 2005 has been Australia’s hottest year. Coolwire 17 points out that the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of Norwich, long quoted by the IPCC and the Universit of Alabama at Huntsville group compiling satellite data for the lower troposphere, both produce anomaly maps showing 1998 was warmer for Australia. 

The NASA GISS group do agree with the BoM that 1998 was warmer than 2005 but they quote data from 1 Nov 2004 to 30 Nov 2005, not calendar 2005. However we count that as a point for the BoM.

GISS, IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Satellite global temperature trends; still much less warming than Jones and GISS

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There is a tendency around to claim that satellite Lower Troposphere (LT) T trends now agree with Jones et al (land & sea) and GISS land based trends. 
But this is not so.
Trend differences of circa 0.047 C per decade are huge when viewed against the claims by Jones et al / IPCC of only 0.05 C UHI contamination over the century plus surface record.  For graphic and details. Continue reading Satellite global temperature trends; still much less warming than Jones and GISS →

GISS, IPCC, News and Views, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

How NASA GISS inserts warming into USA rural T data

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Trawling through files from 2001 I came across this rare example of an email from Dr Jim Hansen that actually gives an insight into what GISS does with temperature data.
For background I have my page commenting on Jones et al use of Miami.
www.warwickhughes.com/climate/miami.htm
Then my page on the five degree grid cell covering much of Florida and commenting on Jones 1994 additions.
www.warwickhughes.com/climate/florida.htm
Then this page commenting on GISS data which inserts warming into rural data west of Miami.
www.warwickhughes.com/climate/giss_fl.htm

Continue reading How NASA GISS inserts warming into USA rural T data →

IPCC, Jones et al, News and Views, Surface Record

End of year alteration shenanigans at CRU

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I have just added a line on Coolwire 16 to weird goings on at the CRU Climate Monitor website re deletions of 2005 gridded data images from March 2005 on.
IMHO it looks as if they wanted to see if 2005 could be a candidate for Hottest year ever. I know others have noticed this CRU habit long before this Blog.
No shame at all.
Caught out with their own date stamps. Check it out for yourself, please let me know when March 2005 on are replaced.

IPCC, Jones et al, News and Views, Surface Record

Dodgy BoM map supports “Nation bakes in its hottest year” media article

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See Coolwire 16 for discussion of the above article and this BoM map published on page 7 of The Weekend Australian 17-18 Dec 2005.

Note how 90% of the orange area of highest warming is from regions of Australia largely devoid of people and I would suggest devoid of meaningful long term temperature data too.

What disgraceful BoM propaganda, taxpayer funded.

Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

How did Jones et al 1986 and Jones 1994 select Atlanta ?

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This is the first “city” study I put online in 2000. There is nothing isolated about Jones using a city with such obvious UHI contamination as Atlanta, they used hundreds of cities.

Hotlanta

In the face of this methodology, the AMS journal in 1986 published not ONE comment and I am not aware anybody tried to comment. I look forward to hearing some justifications from IPCC supporters for the use of Atlanta and similar data to contribute to an accurate measure of global temperature trends.