All posts by Warwick Hughes

Atmospheric science, IPCC

How MINISCULE is the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect ?

33 Comments

This post is to highlight conclusions from a 1998 paper by Sherwood B Idso in Vol 10: 69-82 of Climate Research, "CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic’s view of potential climate".


Sherwood Idso finds that a consensus of 8 natural experiments he describes is that for a doubling of carbon dioxide to 600ppm, the global temperature might rise at most by 0.4 degrees C.
To save blog space the links below take readers to the relevant sections of an html version of Sherwood Idso’s paper.

Continue reading How MINISCULE is the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect ? →

Atmospheric science, IPCC, News and Views, Surface Record

Little agreement with BoM claims 2005 was Australia’s hottest year

1 Comment

The Australian BoM has made much media fanfare with its claims that 2005 has been Australia’s hottest year. Coolwire 17 points out that the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of Norwich, long quoted by the IPCC and the Universit of Alabama at Huntsville group compiling satellite data for the lower troposphere, both produce anomaly maps showing 1998 was warmer for Australia. 

The NASA GISS group do agree with the BoM that 1998 was warmer than 2005 but they quote data from 1 Nov 2004 to 30 Nov 2005, not calendar 2005. However we count that as a point for the BoM.

GISS, IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Satellite global temperature trends; still much less warming than Jones and GISS

100 Comments

There is a tendency around to claim that satellite Lower Troposphere (LT) T trends now agree with Jones et al (land & sea) and GISS land based trends. 
But this is not so.
Trend differences of circa 0.047 C per decade are huge when viewed against the claims by Jones et al / IPCC of only 0.05 C UHI contamination over the century plus surface record.  For graphic and details. Continue reading Satellite global temperature trends; still much less warming than Jones and GISS →

GISS, IPCC, News and Views, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

How NASA GISS inserts warming into USA rural T data

17 Comments

Trawling through files from 2001 I came across this rare example of an email from Dr Jim Hansen that actually gives an insight into what GISS does with temperature data.
For background I have my page commenting on Jones et al use of Miami.
www.warwickhughes.com/climate/miami.htm
Then my page on the five degree grid cell covering much of Florida and commenting on Jones 1994 additions.
www.warwickhughes.com/climate/florida.htm
Then this page commenting on GISS data which inserts warming into rural data west of Miami.
www.warwickhughes.com/climate/giss_fl.htm

Continue reading How NASA GISS inserts warming into USA rural T data →

News and Views

BoM moves the Goal Posts

63 Comments

The BoM original 14 November media release "2005: Australia’s warmest year on record?" was explicit in that calendar 2005 is the subject.

See my critique using NASA GISS data in Coolwire 15 and on Jennifer Marohasy’s Blog 29 November.

This BoM drum beat lead to the 17 December article in The Australian, "Nation bakes in its hottest year", that I critiqued here on 18 Dec. as, "Dodgy BoM map.." etc. The BoM map in question was headlined, Above normal temperatures January 1-November 30, 2005.

So presumably the map could not have been produced until the afternoon of 30 November.

It is fascinating that on 2 December the BoM put out another media release headlined, "NT – Hottest 12-month period", informing us of Northern Territory warmth, "Near Average November Temperatures for the Territory but Warmest 12-Month Period Persists". Oddly enough, there were no other media releases for other States, for example Queensland, featuring "Highest on record" areas on the map in The Australian. Note that it only takes two weeks for their 14 November hype, "2005: Australia’s warmest year on record?", to collapse in a heap under the influence of, shock horror, "Near Average November Temperatures for the Territory".

When the BoM says on 2 December, "..Warmest 12-Month Period Persists", they shift the start of the measuring period from 1 January 2005 back to 1 December 2004. This is "moving the goal posts."

Is there no shame dampening what the BoM will do under the imperative to put out warming propaganda ?

This farrago of contradictions might be amusing if it were not costing taxpayers and diverting effort from more beneficial output such as timely storm warnings.

We await the end of year round of BoM media releases.

IPCC, News and Views

NZ dumps carbon tax

5 Comments

Is this the second sensible counter Kyoto step by a “First World” government that has signed on to the mess ? After Tony Blair harmed Kyoto a few weeks ago that is.
Read in NZ Herald of 21 December

Dumping of carbon tax delights business, angers Greens

The Government’s decision to ditch the proposed carbon tax has been backed by the business community, but slammed by the Greens who called it a “capitulation” to vested interests.

Climate Change Minister David Parker announced today that the tax, designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and due to come into effect in April 2007, would not go ahead.

Officials are being asked to look at other options.

It had been claimed that the tax would harm businesses and cost households between $4 and $10 a week.

Business leaders said today’s decision was sensible.

See also Oct 2005 Coolwire 13, “A campaign is developing to get NZ out of the Kyoto accord.”

IPCC, Jones et al, News and Views, Surface Record

End of year alteration shenanigans at CRU

3 Comments

I have just added a line on Coolwire 16 to weird goings on at the CRU Climate Monitor website re deletions of 2005 gridded data images from March 2005 on.
IMHO it looks as if they wanted to see if 2005 could be a candidate for Hottest year ever. I know others have noticed this CRU habit long before this Blog.
No shame at all.
Caught out with their own date stamps. Check it out for yourself, please let me know when March 2005 on are replaced.

IPCC, Jones et al, News and Views, Surface Record

Dodgy BoM map supports “Nation bakes in its hottest year” media article

5 Comments

See Coolwire 16 for discussion of the above article and this BoM map published on page 7 of The Weekend Australian 17-18 Dec 2005.

Note how 90% of the orange area of highest warming is from regions of Australia largely devoid of people and I would suggest devoid of meaningful long term temperature data too.

What disgraceful BoM propaganda, taxpayer funded.

Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

How did Jones et al 1986 and Jones 1994 select Atlanta ?

41 Comments

This is the first “city” study I put online in 2000. There is nothing isolated about Jones using a city with such obvious UHI contamination as Atlanta, they used hundreds of cities.

Hotlanta

In the face of this methodology, the AMS journal in 1986 published not ONE comment and I am not aware anybody tried to comment. I look forward to hearing some justifications from IPCC supporters for the use of Atlanta and similar data to contribute to an accurate measure of global temperature trends.