Half way through spring – global warming not enough to save them
Snow cave tragedy: couple die after New Zealand rescuers hampered by horrendous weather
Some sound advice from NZ experts. – It’s all down to climbers when weather turns
A quick decision to turn around and head down might save you.
Do the summit another day.
- weather turned out 25°
Apologies – I initially posted the forecast at 35deg which was wrong – it was 28.
The 35 degrees is tomorrow, Wednesday.
- In January I commented on an 8° fail. Australian Bureau of Meteorology Sydney temperature forecast 12 Jan 2013 – another amazing failure
Fascinating to check tonight what gets said on TV weather news.
Sydney region forecast link –
Actual weather link – several days are kept.
The ABC commentary is here –
Agencies not prepared for a major emergency
Confusion between police and fire service about who was in charge
Fire service failed to act on computer simulations predicting Dunalley could be devastated by the Forcett fire
Road closures could have been handled better
Lives probably put at risk
Government accepts 72 recommendations, 31 approved in principle
30 prioritised for immediate start
Fuel reduction planning begins immediately
the report is introduced here – note the 1967 history – www site to download the pdf report in two parts total ~16MB.
Subsequent ABC news items as various parties position themselves – Opposition wants Tasmanian minister to quit over bushfire crisis – Firefighters take a swipe at January bushfire inquiry findings – Premier rejects Opposition claims fire fuel warnings ignored.
After the devastation of the Dunalley fire 4 Jan 2013 I posted this – Question about large fixed wing air tankers, water bombers in Australia now – Dunalley fire timeline. The report Appendix has timelines which show the Forcett fire (which ran and destroyed Dunalley on the 4th) was known to be burning on the 3rd.
I am saying this is a case where a four engined air tanker could have put out the Forcett fire on the 3rd. Too often our fire services seem to “accompany fires” – exhausting their resources. For example Yass and SE Cooma last summer – both of which burnt for several days – and the town of Yass was lucky not to come under direct attack. In both cases I am saying four engined air tankers would have been useful in suppressing those fires.
As a nation we spend $Billions on border protection but can not see the advantage in spending a few $Million each summer to charter a four engined water bomber or two. Technology that should probably be controlled by the RAAF.
IMHO the Victorian fire hierarchy on Black Saturday 7 Feb 2009 was in some disarray to say the least – possibly caught out by having their focus to the SE of Melbourne that morning and never properly catching up with catastrophic events to the north through the afternoon.
In the case of the Canberra fires 18 January 2003; these had been burning in NSW bush to the west and north west of the ACT for over a week – yet residents had little advance warning from authorities of the attack that Saturday afternoon.
Great to see articles like this in The Australian – cutting through the misinformation and lies with clarity.
Yet the new Abbott Govt is hamstrung until 1 July 2014 when it can try and pass carbon tax repeal legislation through the new Senate.
While a double dissolution may not be impossible in the short time-frame before mid 2014 – IMHO it is unlikely all the hurdles are worth jumping. Antony Green may have more to say sometime if the issue boils on.
Interesting that if you make maps of “Maximum Anomaly” and “Minimum Anomaly” for various periods, 1 day and 1 week – then click on the Earlier or Later button – you can see that the heat of September has lessened as we hit mid October.
Also I note both Adelaide and Melbourne have had near average temperatures for October so far.
That is the preferred title for the blog article by Tony from Oz.
Where he points out how the EPA is making new coal fired electricity generation next to impossible in the USA; while setting the emissions bar just at the level that permits gas fired generation.
This news item caught my eye – Dangerous behaviour as people canoe on the Harvey Dam which could overflow any moment -
Seems counter what we would expect in view of the decade long propaganda from WA water authorities about low dam levels – “our drying climate” slogans – rain never filling our dams – Perth will die etc etc etc.
I see these dams are part of Harvey Water
Map Harvey Water dams -
Levels Harvey Water dams –
Harvey Dam at 56GL and Wellington at 180GL are the two largest and are both full. Is there a reason in rainfall ? or catchment factors why these dams are full now ? At the exact time Perth water supply catchment dams are struggling to average 40% full.
On Tuesday 8 Oct 2013 the Sydney Morning Herald reported – NSW temperatures may hit 40 degrees on Thursday prompting extreme fire warnings – In the article it says – Sydney is forecast to reach 37 degrees – Although the photo at the top of the article carried the misleading caption – Hot in the city: Sydney is likely to swelter on Thursday with temperatures predicted to reach 40 degrees.
Then on 9 Oct 2013 SMH has a headline – Sydney weather forecast revised to 39 degrees – Much mention in the article of high wind speeds including 100k gusts at Huskisson – yet no gust was recorded at Nowra or Point Perpendicular exceeding 70k.
So what actually happened on Thursday the 10th -
Sydney temperatures were 2° below forecast -
Canberra, Goulburn, Wagga Wagga, Albury were all 2° below forecast.
Further west temperatures were closer to forecasts
No wind gust was recorded at Nowra or Point Perpendicular exceeding 70k – what happened to the 100k figure that was concerning fire people?
Overall an inaccurate scaremongering updated forecast on the 9th.
Here is yesterdays effort at the SMH posted early evening – Sydney weather: heat to continue before big drop -
What would be a rational statement about Sydney weather on 10 Oct 2013 – a very hot day in October similar but not quite as hot as some previous October days over a century or more ? And of course all of the BoM and media comment makes no mention that the ever expanding Sydney urban heat island could have had any effect at all yesterday.
There must have been a $Billion or more sunk over a decade into the quest for an economic geothermal electricity project in Australia. The aim has always been for projects on a scale that could contribute to the grid and retire some baseload coal fired generators.
Last month I wrote about pioneer hot rocks driller Geodynamics Ltd GDY – in July I wrote about Seven “green” companies I checked in January 2011 – still poor investments -
Here are share price charts for six ASX listed geothermal energy explorers – most resemble disasters if you had invested a few years ago.
Greenearth Energy Limited GER
Green Rock Energy GRK
Geodynamics Ltd GDY
Hot Rock Limited HRL
Petratherm Ltd PTR
Raya Group Ltd RYG
Australian Geothermal Energy Association – as they say – driving the development of the Australian geothermal energy industry. Link from comment 9 previous article.
Can readers point me to notable progress in the sector.
We must remember that the sector took of last decade mainly because of the IPCC AGW scare driver a perceived need for “green energy” sources. Without that I doubt if many of these companies would exist – or of multi-$millions of Govt grants would have been wasted and still are being wasted.