A classic from the Fairfax GreenLeft NZ Herald – From heatwave to violent storms: New Zealand’s mad weather – Mad is code for, the NIWA forecasts of hot dry weather caused by El Nino are being shot down but Herald readers are supposed to understand that crazy or in this case mad weather can be caused by “climate change” too.
Amazing that the article does not refer to remnants of Cyclone Ula which is nearing the East Cape region as an ex tropical low pressure system. Map source.
It is not unusual for the remains of cyclones to vent on northern NZ in summer.
Coal future at risk for Collie – but how will the backbone of the West Australian electricity grid be propped up? Checkout this great AEMO site for WA with real-time generation graphics. Wind so often contributes little.
Does the WA Govt think they can copy South Australia and shut down coal fired generators? Adelaide can draw on the cable link to Victoria and pull in coal fired electricity to prop up their grid when wind, solar, gas and diesel can not cope. But WA has no “cable to a Victoria”.
The WA Govt idea looks impractical to me without a large expansion of gas fired generators – which are not mentioned in the article. Minister Nahan should check NemWatch at times and see how the various States generators perform.
A reader reminded me of this issue and asked if I had checked the “carbon dioxide thermometer”. This concept arises from the fact that in warm years carbon dioxide outgasses from oceans into the atmosphere while in cool years the opposite takes place with carbon dioxide moving from the atmosphere into oceans.
This chart shows many correlations showing that the “carbon dioxide thermometer” is alive and well and is saying that 1998 is still the hottest year in the last four decades. So the “CO2 thermometer” says the satellites with their automated 24/7 pinging of the entire planet are to be trusted before HadCRUT4 which on land derives data mostly from ever expanding urban areas which are warming due to the urban heat island effect. In addition, temperature series such as HadCRUT4 are being adjusted cooler in earlier years thus increasing the warming trend.
I missed this last year – maybe WA people can help interpret in plain english. Top academic sacked and another demoted 5 April 2015
Professor Jorg Imberger on hiding to nothing – Opinion | Paul Murray
25 March 2015
Uni shuts water study centre – Daniel Mercer 23 March 2015
Professor in uni probe – Amanda Banks Legal Affairs Editor – 23 December 2014
I find it a curious juxtaposition that the Uni in Perth had a
Centre for Water Research for decades – yet Perth will be famous for decommissioning water supply dam catchments which are blessed with an average of ~850mm per year May to Oct runoff season rainfall. Go figure.
The Albany Advertiser says – Albany breaks 137-year rainfall record – reading on we find that 2015 was the driest year in 137 years of records. The article says this is “…according to the bureau’s annual climate statement…” that is for WA. The Albany Advertiser does not tell you that Albany is the sole and lonely place listed as having “Record lowest annual total rainfall”.
So in all the huge area of WA only one BoM rainfall station out of about 2,200 odd in WA recorded the “Record lowest annual total rainfall”. And this of course was worthy of a media article because beating up bad news about rain has been an industry in Perth & SW WA for near a decade and a half. It is true of course that SW WA has seen declining rain over several decades – and WA Govt water authorities have lead the charge claiming that “climate change has taken our rain”. Yet this conveniently forgets the point that other areas – for example Northern Australia have experienced increased rain. So it is just as logical to say rain varies all the time at varying timescales in various regions and places and the reasons are likely as yet not fully understood by mankind
Perth media runs this story – Utility pleads for more water
I have written on this subject for more than a decade – here are just two landmark examples.
 There never was a rain shortage to justify seawater desalination for Perth’s water supply – Dec 2007 download my 200KB 3 page pdf “Perth water supply catchments rain report Nov 07” Still covers main issues.
 Ongoing decline in efficiency of Perth Dam catchments – reply from WA Minister – May 2013 – Read what I wrote to Minister Marmion and his reply – he could not contradict my point that catchment management would increase runoff to dams.
Updating to 2015 rainfall the 5 year average rain 2011-2014 is about 850mm. Below is the latest chart of Perth catchments rainfall May-Oct rainfall 1980-2015 which shows CE (Catchment Efficiency) plunging to under 2%.
What the West Australian Government (and Labor Opposition) should be doing in respect of Perth water supply policy.
1. Over-ride Green objections and manage catchments as they were in the mid 1990’s thus increasing dam inflows by an amount of water about equal to production from two desalination factories (=90 GL Per year). See graphic of declining catchment yields above. Thinning of catchment bush can be done by experts with negligible adverse effects on wildlife values. Download 1 page pdf with chart showing results of thinning the Higgins catchment near Dwellingup – from 2005 Water Corporation report.
2. Cut the Gnangara pines forthwith – the value of the trees is way less than the value of the water they are suppressing. Sell the lumber and use the land for well planned urban areas – make a huge profit from well planned new suburbs and increase underground water pumping potential by about 100 GL per year, (UWA figures from 2002). Let both mounds recover over the decades ahead. GoogleEarth images show that between 2004 and 2015 significant areas of the pines have been cleared – that will assist recharge of the Gnangara mound underground water.
3. Abandon the risky plans to pump treated waste water into your precious shallow aquifers.
4. Take on board the Agritech proposal to desalinate brackish Wellington dam water but examine augmenting it to 100 GL per year by adding similar brackish water from the Murray or Avon where hundreds of GL flow to the sea every year.
5. After seeing the benefits from 1, 2, 3 & 4 above, progressively mothball both seawater desalination factories and save taxpayers mega $’s’.
6. Engage an expert US group to trial cloud seeding for a few run-off seasons – the cost is low compared to the large value of any incremental water in dams.
7. Stop lying to the public about rainfall – let the slogan “Our drying climate”pass into history where it belongs. Instruct Water Corporation to quote catchments rainfall on their www pages and NOT Perth rainfall which does not run into dams.
8. Instruct Water Corporation to get on with their job of harvesting available falling-from-the-sky-free natural water at the lowest cost possible for the benefit of the Perth and WA public.
9. If CE (Catchment Efficiency) was increased to 5.6% – hypothetically the 19 years 1997 to 2015 would have produced an extra 64GL each year on average – taking out the 4 poor years, 2001-2006-2010-2015.
If you take the last group of good years 2011-2014 incl. the loss is worse and 116GL PA is being lost. Now what is the value of this lost water? Is it near a $Billion PA?
Perth media says – Utility pleads for more water – yet as this table of monthly rain data for Collie 9628 shows, there are several years since 2002 with missing months data. The record was perfect from 1901 to 2001 through world wars and depressions.
Then our modern Govts fail in recording such vital data for the nation. Amazing failure – see Mundaring Weir 9031 too – who cares – it is only free water from the sky that could run into dams already paid for – why bother to measure that – so passe. We clever people are in “Our Drying Climate” now.
Collie rain has relevance to the Wellington Dam Water Recovery Project by AgritechSmartwater – saved by the Wayback Machine. Agritech are revitalising their campaign – but the WA Govt has blocked their proposals for a decade now.
Tuesday the BoM put out this warning – BoM says hot Brisbane weather may come as ‘shock’ Five days later I just wonder who is shocked as Brisbane temperatures look boring normal as AWN shows.
Taxpayers should be shocked at paying for this feverish twaddle. Eventually Brisbane will get a hotter than normal day – nothing is more certain.
Here we are on Sunday afternoon near 1700EST and the BoM has not figured out what the maximum was on the 5th and the minimum on the 12th – I mean what can happen to change things now? 30 minute data is here. Searching Google for the ABC headline shows a small sample of how this BoM rubbish infests the media.
I have just had an email saying that the Feb 2005 email from Dr Phil Jones to me saying – “We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it. ” – has been mentioned at Climate etc the blog by Dr Judith Curry.
This got me to wondering if I have posted anywhere the six months sequence of emails starting July 2004 that lead up to Dr Jones marvellous missive. If you click more – my warts & all text file notes are there for those interested.
Great reading – last September I linked to the New www site – Stop Malcolm Turnbull – now it is updated, expanded and even better.