Several subjects to be covered/touched on/updated in this important contested area flooded with Gov funded misinformation.
A – The usually reliable Dwellingup 9538 failed to record rain on 31March when radar shows ~50mm fell.
www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801/IDW60801.94620.shtml
Long term readers here should know that over a decade ago I constructed my “Perth Dams Catchments May-Oct Rainfall Index” series from three stations – Mundaring Weir 9031, Karnet 9011 and Dwellingup 9538. In recent years BoM has discontinued Mundaring Weir 9031(see C below) so I have replaced that with Mundaring 9030. I have been well aware that Karnet 9111 has been getting worse and may have to look for an alternative site (see B below). My last update of my “Perth Dams Catchments May-Oct Rainfall Index” series is to year 2021 and I still have to do the work to update 2022.
2021 update 47 years Perth dams catchment May-Oct rain index 4Aug2022
www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=6960
Here is best link to my full 2021 chart.
www.warwickhughes.com/agri16/per-dams-catch-index2021.jpg
B – The patchy and unreliable Karnet 9111 turned in an obviously gappy & incomplete 2022 total. Seemingly accepted by BoM.
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=136&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=2022&p_c=-16612931&p_stn_num=9111
Why Karnet 9111 should be so unreliable I fail to understand as it is near a State run prison where there would be no shortage of labour to reliably curate rainfall gear.
I might have to include the well curated Bickley 9240 into my “Perth Dams Catchments May-Oct Rainfall Index” series to replace Karnet.
C – BoM has killed off in recent years several unreliable rain stations down the line of Perth dams – see previous blog
BoM chooses not to explain Perth dams faulty rainfall data 23Jul2018
www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=5871
D – All the above & below subjects mesh with my Muja blog where I expose the “barking mad” claim by ABC/BoM/ANU Academic that Muja Power Station 9738 rainfall was really as low as 124/127mm for calendar 2022.
ABC sucked in by obvious rainfall errors at Muja Power Station a BoM site 1Jan2023
www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=7061
E – The ever GreenLeft Our/ABC after Christmas 2021 published this arm-waving twaddle –
Why WA’s south-west is drying out at one of the worst rates in the world 28Dec21
www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-28/why-south-west-wa-is-drying-out/100625142
And for your interest while on the subject of “arm-waving twaddle” – I see these glossed-up wild claims.
Guided by nature – Indigenous Australians use their deep spiritual connection to the land to track the seasons, but elders are warning of a “massive shift” in climate. 31Mar23
www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-31/indigenous-australian-seasons-guided-by-nature/100919396
F – I have various blogs and www pages over more than a decade exposing the WA Gov and Water Corporation dodgy claims that rainfall decline has caused streamflow into dam catchments decline. In fact decades of neglect of scientific “control or thinning of excessive catchment bush” is the main cause of any runoff decline.
No water shortage forced seawater desal on Perth 27Feb2018
www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=5608
see link to – There never was a rain shortage to justify seawater desalination for Perth’s water supply 4Dec2007
www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=145
Category Archives: BoM Australia
Weather Bureau for Australia
BoM March23 rain Outlook many fails
BoM rain Outlook for March
www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20230223-outlook.shtml
Note dry NSW mid-west – wet NSW coast – note the dry near Mt Isa and belt east of Longreach – note dry Wagin-Perth – wet Hobart
Now lets check reality – Australian rain percentages for the month to date
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=percent&period=cmonth®ion=nat&year=2023&month=03&day=28
You can home in on States for greater detail.
To try and put the best spin on their many Outlook fails they helped the GreenLeftABC with this cluster-of-excuses.
Rain douses dry predictions for autumn with storm spell predicted to peak this week 29Mar23
www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-29/autumn-weather-australia-storm-spell/102155924
BoM no overlap at change Nowra Navy temperature data to AWS
I decided to check what BoM temp data there was for Nowra – just south of the Shoalhaven River south of Wollongong in NSW.
I found there is an ancient Nowra Council Offices 68105 which has data from ~1912 to ~1934 with gaps then nothing at Nowra.
WW2 increased activity at the HMAS Albatross Navy airfield a bit S of Nowra and BoM started max n min t from 1956 for – Nowra Ran Air Station
68076. Then in year 2000 I assume it changed to AWS as Nov 2000 was the last month for 68076 and Nowra Ran Air Station AWS 68072 the current station started with Nov 2000 the first full month.
So BoM monthly data tables at CDO imply there was only a one month overlap in switching to AWS.
I downloaded the data from CDO and pasted to a spreadsheet and I was surprised at the large increase in both max & min readings for Nov 2000 in AWS over what I assume was liquid in glass thermometer.
I emailed what I had found to an expert in BoM data and he reported that there were only a few days data in Nov 2000 to make the presumed overlap. You could not make this up.
The relevant four links are below and just now the BoM pages will not show the daily data for me.
I have not tried looking at either “siteinfo” pdf yet.
What do readers think about BoM not doing a decent overlap (several years?) at this site where staffing could not have been an issue. Links below to monthly data at BoM CDO (Climate Data Online)
Monthly mean maximum temperature Nowra Ran Air Station 68076
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=36&p_display_type=dataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=068076
Monthly mean maximum temperature Nowra Ran Air Station AWS 68072
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=36&p_display_type=dataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=068072
Monthly mean minimum temperature Nowra Ran Air Station 68076
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=38&p_display_type=dataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=068076
Monthly mean minimum temperature Nowra Ran Air Station AWS 68072
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=38&p_display_type=dataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=068072
Australian cool summer sparks massive headlines
Chris Gillham has updated his chart (Mar 2012 to Feb 2023) of ACORN V2.3 mean t(Aussie land stations many affected by UHI now stroked & tweaked by BoM) vs NASA UAH lower troposphere temps from satellites. His page is headed – Australian climate plateau since 2012 – Datasets show no warming for more than a decade
www.waclimate.net/australia-cooling.html
BoM three-monthly mean temperature anomaly for Australia 1Dec2022 to 28Feb2023
www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=meananom&period=3month&area=nat
At this BoM page you can also easily checkout the max anomaly (Daytime) and Min anomaly (Night time) maps.
This summer has been marked by amazing BoM publicity about heatwaves – perhaps readers can report their experience of heatwaves this summer – thanks.
In a few days the UAH Global map of lower troposphere T anomalies for Feb should appear at link below.
www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
BoM wants to change El Niño and La Niña definitions
Reported by the ABC and the term SOI (southern oscillation index) is not referred to in the article.
Bureau of Meteorology considering change to El Niño and La Niña definitions 11Feb23
www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-11/bureau-of-meteorology-considering-redefining-el-nino-and-la-nina/101959160
The GreenLeft/Albo/ALP/ABC/BoM article never mentions the term SOI???
I think it is certain that the grouping “GreenLeft/Albo/ALP/ABC/BoM” want to be able to say whatever they choose, make any claim they choose, linking “IPCC climate change or global warming” to any natural phenomena be it drought, rain, fire, flood at any time across the wide brown land. I hope the Qld Govt Department of Environment and Science keeps on producing the longpaddock time series of the SOI.
www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
BoM failure as specified by BoM
The raw articles for this whole blog idea have been provided for me by Lance Pidgeon AKA Siliggy around sceptic circles so it is mostly a guest post by him – thanks Lance.
On the 2nd of July 2017 the BoM weather station at Goulburn Airport recorded a very nippy morning and if you were quick at checking the BoM www page you might have been lucky to see minus 10.4 logged.
The story was told at the time by Dr. Jennifer Marohasy at her web site – “Bureau Erases Goulburn Record Minimum Temperature: Set Sunday 2 July 2017 – 4July 2017”
jennifermarohasy.com/2017/07/bureau-erases-goulburn-record-minimum-temperature-set-sunday-2-july-2017/
I chipped in after a few days with: – “BoM fiddling Goulburn minimum temperature 2nd July 2017 reveals extent of errors in BoM AWAP temperature maps 6Jul2017”
www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=5206
and I also blogged a wrap after a “month of BoM shooting itself in the foot” Wow – reminds me how sceptics made front page of “The Australian”
“Persistent truth telling climate sceptics cause the BoM to shaft itself again 1Aug2017”
www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=5246
Graham Lloyd’s well informed series of articles for years in “The Australian” critical of BoM gave the hypersensitive pompous bureaucracy plenty to hyperventilate to itself about. Add to that the truth-telling comments by climate sceptics high-lighting the Goulburn Airport and Thredbo July 2017 temperature reporting irregularities by BoM also reported by the press understandably lead to the apoplectic giant BoM setting up a 2017 “Review of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Automatic Weather Stations” by an international panel. The panel had five members – three from New Zealand and two from the BoM.
A pdf of the BoM’s 2017 “Review of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Automatic Weather Stations” can be downloaded here.
www.bom.gov.au/inside/Review_of_Bureau_of_Meteorology_Automatic_Weather_Stations.pdf
There must have been FOI requests for correspondence surrounding this 2017 review because two pdf’s of FOI30-6150 can be downloaded off the BoM www site – the newest by data is labelled Part1
www.bom.gov.au/foi/release/FOI30-6150_DocumentSet_ForRelease_Redacted_r_Part1.pdf
The oldest by date is labelled Part2.
www.bom.gov.au/foi/release/FOI30-6150_DocumentSet_ForRelease_Redacted_r_Part2.pdf
Both redacted pdf’s of the FOI30-6150 release are shown here
search.bom.gov.au/s/search.html?query=FOI30-6150&collection=bom&Submit=Search
along with the top URL “Disclosure Log” which is an interesting list of FOI material released by BoM since 2010. Plenty to research there.
www.bom.gov.au/foi/disclosure.shtml
Now to the meat of todays blog by Lance. If I add any point it will be [in brackets]
BoM tried to blame a faulty AWS but Lance points out how in the pdf doc ITR637 testing in 1994 at the makers “ALMOS” in the US – BoM only ever specified that AWS to record down to -10. Not colder than minus 10.!!
Lance text below here
From a Bureau of Meteorology FOI release the following internal email contents after the public had noticed temperatures not being recorded below -10.4 degrees.
“The equipment wasn’t faulty. The purchase specification required operation down to -10 ˚C, so the words need to be carefully written.”
Just how independant is this advice?
Page 77 of this PDF
www.bom.gov.au/foi/release/FOI30-6150_DocumentSet_ForRelease_Redacted_r_Part1.pdf
Where was this specified? I
A big clue is in this same BoM document mentioned on page 88 of the PDF. So hard to aquire it needed to be sent from New Zealand.
“Bruce Hartley has kindly forwarded ITR 637 summarising the tests on the AWS ADC cards.
The test results on P4 indicate that the 4-wire resistance measurement (which answers an
earlier question of mine) does not perform as well as might be expected”
And from that document we read;
“4. CONCLUSIONS
a) The performance of the resistance channels of the ALMOS AWS does not meet Bureau
Specification A2671 [1] requirement for electrical system accuracy over the full scale range of -10
to 55 °C.”
Here is that hard to obtain document. See attached. ITR637 INSTRUMENT TEST REPORT NUMBER 637 – Summary Report on ALMOS A.W.S. Tests – Jane Warne Senior Physicist Physics Laboratory BoM 21Oct1994
www.warwickhughes.com/agri16/ITR637.pdf
So the “full range” specified in A2671 was -10 to +55. When Australia had recorded much colder.
“Testing of the MSI1 card at the Bureau’s metrology area and the vendor’s facility in
1994 determined that the card would not report temperatures where the resistance
was equivalent to a temperature below –10.4°C. Subsequently, a new model card
(MSI2) was developed and procured from the vendor, with testing at the Bureau’s
metrology area in 1999 showing this card could operate accurately and successfully
at temperatures down to –25°C.”
www.bom.gov.au/inside/Review_of_Bureau_of_Meteorology_Automatic_Weather_Stations.pdf
Not only did problems pop up in Goulburn and Thredbo in 2017, with automatic weather stations being the primary instrument from late 1996, this problem was general until sometime after the mentiond 1999 test. ITR657 also attached.
Link to ITR657 INSTRUMENT TEST REPORT NUMBER 657
www.warwickhughes.com/agri16/ITR657.pdf
There are even odd accuracy specs mentioned in it.
Lance
[Later when I (wazz) have time there is much BoM pomposity to puncture in the two FOI30-6150 pdf’s – just now I lack the time but readers are welcome to post any examples that gets them laughing]
Our hottest ever day 50.7 degrees at Oodnadatta tweaked hotter by BoM’s ACORN series
BoM says, our National daily max temperature record is SA, 50.7, 2 January 1960 Oodnadatta Airport 17043
www.bom.gov.au/climate/extreme/records.shtml
Just over a year ago Onslow in WA equalled the 50.7 see my blog – “BoM equal record hot day at Onslow a nothing-burger 14Jan2022” www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=6850
My table comparing four versions of Oodnadatta daily max from 17Dec1959 to 17Jan1960 shows 4 columns of daily max – CDO (Climate Data Online) referred to be some as Raw, the original ACORN from 2009 which shows no changes from CDO, Acorn V2 from 2018 and ACORN V2.3 from Oct 2022. There are two columns of differences, the first is ACORN V2 minus ACORN 2009, the second is ACORN V2.3 minus ACORN V2.
I have marked with red asterisks the five days in 1959 where ACORN V2.3 is different to ACORN V2.
www.warwickhughes.com/agri16/oodna-various-acorns.jpg
What a debt of gratitude we owe BoM for the $multi-millions of dollars they spend correcting for the poor eyesight of the Oodnadatta weather station custodian in 1959-1960.
Sydney enjoys 323 days under 30 degrees in our largest UHI
2022 ended up cooler than normal towards the end see Chris Gillham’s great www pages –
Australian climate cooling since 2012.
www.waclimate.net/australia-cooling.html
And today Sydney Observatory Hill just recorded over 30 degrees – read about the significance at Weatherzone.
www.weatherzone.com.au/news/sydney-ends-nearrecord-run-below-30-degrees/1050804
Sydney ends near-record run below 30 degrees 18Jan23. Quote [ Prior to today, Sydney’s last day above 30ºC was on February 21, 2022, meaning the city just had 331 days between temperatures over 30ºC.
This is the city’s second longest gap between 30ºC days in records dating back to 1859. The only longer period between 30ºC days lasted for 340 days, between December 31, 1882, and December 6, 1883.]
Weatherzone also note at the end of their article – Quote[Considering Sydney’s near-record run of days below 30ºC in the broader context of climate change makes it an even more impressive feat for the city. Observations from Observatory Hill show that the city’s mean annual maximum temperature has increased by around 1ºC between 1910 and 2021.]
How stunning that they would “touch their forelock” to “climate change” but not mention the location in the largest urban heat island in all the wide brown land.
2023 In Australian is starting cool but what else is due this year? Will add to this post later.
BoM says La Nina is easing yet SOI is strongly positive
The ABC is running this article today “La Niña is rapidly easing, the BOM says. But the prospect of El Niño has some worried. So what’s next?” Sorry WordPress does not let me put a link in.
www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-06/is-el-nino-next-after-la-nina-bom-climate-driver-forecast/101828686
Yet Longpaddock has the 30 day SOI at +19.7 while the 90 day SOI is steady near +14.
www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
I realise BoM are looking at more indicators than the SOI. Time will tell.
Here is my screen save of the SOI on 5Jan23 – paste these URL’s into a new TAB if that suits you.
www.warwickhughes.com/agri16/SOI-month-5jan23.jpg
ABC sucked in by obvious rainfall errors at Muja Power Station a BoM site
Our GreenLeft ALP/ABC has an interesting article on Australian rainfall during our often wet 2022.
Raining champs – Records fell up and down Australia’s east coast as rains, floods and insurance payouts all hit new peaks. As we welcome back the sun to our lives in 2023, what should we do to prepare for the next big wet? – Casey Briggs 31Dec22 – www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-31/australian-weather-rain-2022-records-broken-flooding/101789262
There are plenty of interesting graphics and photos to help us reprise 2022. Here and there through the article there are quotes from Professor Janette Lindesay, a climatologist at the Australian National University. About 2/3rds down their page we come to a map in shades of greens a greys preceded by text saying – “This map shows you how much wetter 2022 has been. We’ve taken data from nearly 1,000 weather stations, to map out how different this year’s rain is from the median of the past 30 years.” You see parts of SW WA are in a grey zone which means [10% dryer than …the median of the past 30 years”. Reading down under our grey and green map we see a quote by Professor Janette Lindesay “Janette Lindesay says there’s been a long-term drying trend in south-west WA since the 1970s.” Moving down the ABC says “This year, again, Perth and surrounding areas missed out on much of the rainfall.” Yet Perth Metro recorded 700.2mm in 2022 which is only 36.6mm under the annual mean. The ABC goes on “As of the end of November, the rain gauge at the Muja Power Station, about 60 kilometres inland of Bunbury, has received just 124mm of rain all year (we don’t yet have December figures).” Beneath that are two charts headed by “Parts of south west WA are bone dry – Cumulative annual rainfall at the Muja Power Station rain gauge” This graphic
www.warwickhughes.com/agri16/ABC-Muja-rain31Dec22.jpg
and the chart underneath shows how BoM rainfall data from Muja Power Station BoM #9738 has only recorded 124mm rain for 2022. www.warwickhughes.com/agri16/ABC-Muja-rainb31Dec22.jpg
I have checked rainfall from surrounding BoM and WA DPIRD gauges and those data offer no support for the notion that Muja Power Station BoM #9738 can be relied upon. Here are links to two Collie/Muja district maps annotated with 2022 rainfall, one from BoM -https://www.warwickhughes.com/agri16/BoM-Muja-district-rain2022.jpg
and the other from WA DPIRD.- www.warwickhughes.com/agri16/DPIRD-map.jpg
Remember the WA DPIRD has a separate network of weather stations indie of BoM.
You can make various 2022 rain maps now at this BoM page –
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/rainfall/?variable=rainfall&map=totals&period=12month®ion=wa&year=2022&month=12&day=31
Below here hoping to show screen save of Muja Siteinfo pdf page 9 re rain gauge failing performance tests in 2011 – see comments below
