While compiling the Autumn Temperature Outlooks piece – I noticed what looked like an aberration in the contouring of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Autumn minimum temperature anomaly maps here – features that were repeated in the monthly minimum anomaly maps for March – April – May 2011. I am talking about the area … Continue reading Non-climatic anomalies in BoM temperature anomaly maps→
I saw where Chris Gilham over at the Anthony Watts site is talking about the record heat in Perth last summer and start to 2011. Had to drive home the disastrous BoM Maximum Temperature Outlook for Jan-Feb-Mar. Could anything be so wrong ? Note in the Yahoo news item how the BoM – completely … Continue reading No, I am not making this up→
I am amazed at the way the “authorities” have seized on the current La Nina phase of the SOI as the reason for the Victorian floods – the media repeat this as gospel truth. This flies in the face of the crystal clear evidence from satellite images that the It offers extreme power to solve … Continue reading Victorian floods Jan 2011 may not be caused by La Nina→
I noticed this article reporting on a BoM – CSIRO initiative to forecast river flows a few months in advance. I just hope they use better models than they employ for the hopeless BoM rainfall and temperature Outlooks. What caught my eye was the gushing praise from ACTEW our Canberra water utility – whose business … Continue reading Canberra water utility praises ineffective “Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts”→
Another month – another miserable failure for the BoM rain “Outlook” as real world data shows the continent awash with rain. Small wins in SW WA and far eastern Australia are hugely outweighed by comprehensive failures over vast areas elsewhere. The Parliament of Australia, House Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation, is holding an … Continue reading #3 Ongoing BoM utter incompetence – month after month→
This time we show the huge divergence between the September quarter Rainfall Outlook – and the actual rainfall deciles for the same period. Clearly the BoM have near zero predictive skills over 1 to 3 months out – any minor agreements are probably due to chance. Yet our nations policy on carbon emissions will be … Continue reading #2 Ongoing BoM utter incompetence→
Every month the Australian BoM published a three month “Outlook” (prediction based on models) for rainfall and temperatures. The Outlook press releases are often picked up by the media who quote them with reverence as though “written on tablets of stone”. I am only aware of one journalist who has had the temerity to draw … Continue reading Ongoing BoM utter incompetence→
The BoM rolling 3 month rainfall Outlook prediction published in late March. Has turned out to be just as irrelevant and useless as the previous four. Compare to the actual rain deciles for April-May-June the poor hapless BoM can only approach reality in the Kimberly-Northern Territory sector. All the other major features of their prediction … Continue reading BoM incompetence again – for the 5th month in a row→
Primarily exposing faulty methodologies behind global temperature trend compilations