This time we show the huge divergence between the September quarter Rainfall Outlook – and the actual rainfall deciles for the same period.
Clearly the BoM have near zero predictive skills over 1 to 3 months out – any minor agreements are probably due to chance.
Yet our nations policy on carbon emissions will be built assuming the BoM and their supporting pro-IPCC orgs have predictive skills that compel our GreenLabor Govt to believe we will be seriously warmer over the coming century.
We are told by the BoM that September rainfall could be an all time record for Australia. Note this surreal article in the Sydney Morning Herald which starts by saying, “Global warming may have given Australia its wettest September in more than 100 years, but “extreme dry years” lie ahead, the Bureau of Meteorology says.”
This seems to me to be in contradiction of the facts as reported by weatherzone.com.au who say, “After their coldest winter in 13 years Sydney residents have just experienced their coldest September in five years..”
I have heard the BoM on TV news saying in effect, “September 2010 rain was an anomaly – we are really still in a dry spell and headed for dryer times”.
That seems to be the drift of their recent “Special Climate Statement 22” – I am suspicious of their Fig 3 in SCS22 and would like to see data back to pre 1900.
Time will tell if the BoM is right to say – “extreme dry years” lie ahead – but IMHO some sections of the BoM are stunningly incompetent and only mass sackings and a re-focus on their observing network would make the BoM relevant to Australian needs.