No, I am not making this up
May 21st, 2011 by Warwick HughesI saw where Chris Gilham over at the Anthony Watts site is talking about the record heat in Perth last summer and start to 2011.
Jan-March BoM 3 Month max T prediction 2011
Had to drive home the disastrous BoM Maximum Temperature Outlook for Jan-Feb-Mar. Could anything be so wrong ?
Note in the Yahoo news item how the BoM – completely without shame talk up their next Outlook !
I was curious if this record heat is as marked in rural areas around Perth – and looking at BoM monthly data for Jan to April in 1978 and 2011 – you can see the answer is – probably not.
From north to south, Pearce RAAF base was 0.05 degrees warmer in 2011 compared 1978, Northam was 0.125 warmer (round how you like), York was exactly unchanged and Karnet was 0.65 cooler in 2011.
I suggest people take 5 or 10min to investigate the data for regions they know.
What a shambles. No wonder Phil Jones mostly stuck to cities.
For those who do not know Perth, see map added Sunday 22 May -
Using this site I have filled in the missing data and added York and Northam.
Of course the max T numbers in each row below are Jan-Feb-Mar-Apr.
Station: Pearce RAAF Number: 9053
1978 35.5 34.4 33.2 28.6
2011 34.8 35.6 33.2 28.3
Station York Post office Number 10144
1978 35.3 34.3 32.5 27.7
Station York Number 10311
2011 35 34.3 32.9 27.6
Station Northam Number 10111
1978 35.3 34.3 32.7 28.1
2011 35.6 34.3 33.2 27.8
Station: Karnet Number: 9111
1978 32.7 31.9 30.3 27.2
2011 31.0 32.4 30.8 25.3
Posted in BoM Australia, Surface Record | 3 Comments »
May 23rd, 2011 at 3:57 pm
Broome has been decidedly cool since the start of the wet season to the end of April, even 2c cooler than the mean, after 2 years of above average temps. But I knew that happen before the beginning of December, with 80% assurance. Our wet season started very early, on November 19th. And didn’t I see somewhere the southern states had some record cold? What were BoM saying?
May 24th, 2011 at 7:55 am
Gidday Tom, If you check my post below for the Jan to Mar & Feb to Apr periods – the BoM Outlooks were pretty reliable for Broome.
May 25th, 2011 at 12:17 pm
Do you care to comment on the significance of the large white space left in this article Warwick? Look Bob – I just tightened the para spacing – did not do much. I run XP and Firefox 4. I do not see any large white space. But if I open the site with IE7 – there are large gaps everywhere. Sorry I can not help.