Category Archives: IPCC

IPCC, Jones et al

Dr Phil Jones back in drivers seat with CRUTem4 updated land only global temperature data – warms more than the UKMO CRUTem3 and with remarkable early outliers from Rio

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CRUTem4 is just released and shows more warming than the UK Met Office dominated CRUTem3. Before I get on to CRUTem4 – a quick reprise of my Jan 2007 post commenting on CRUTem3 compared to our old friend of many years CRUTem2 (which ended in 2005). “Huge variations now between the 3 main global T datasets – January 31st, 2007″. I argued the view the that one reason for UKMO getting involved in CRUTem3 was they wanted to reduce excess warming in CRUTem2 northern high latitudes – more on that in another post where I will explore where CRUTem4 finds the extra warming.

I downloaded global and hemispheric trends from the official CRU website, CRUTem2 and CRUTem3 and 4.
CRUTem2 is from 1856-2005 while CRUTem3 and 4 run 1850-2010.
So I ran the MS Excel linest function for the 1856-2005 period for all 3 series, global, northern & southern hemispheres.

And for 1850-2010 for CRUTem3 and 4. Results summarized in this matrix – all trends are degrees C per decade.

The global differences chart shows the effect of the warming adjustments in CRUTem4 in the last 20 years – and cooling adjustments in CRUTem4 from ~mid 1850’s to 1890. (obviously cooling those years warms the overall trend). Note that from 1895 to the mid 1980’s the CRUTem4 minus CRUTem3 differences are small. The warmth in 1852 will be discussed later but stems from Rio de Janeiro data.

The northern hemisphere differences chart shows the effect of the warming adjustments in CRUTem4 in the last 20 years – and cooling adjustments in CRUTem4 from 1850’s to mid 1870’s. Note again that from the mid 1870’s to the ~1990 the CRUTem4 minus CRUTem3 differences are small.
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The southern hemisphere differences chart shows the effect of the warming adjustments in CRUTem4 in the last 5 years – and cooling adjustments in CRUTem4 from the late 1850’s to ~1885 – much of which comes from adjustments to Australian grid boxes. (obviously cooling those years warms the overall trend). Note that from ~1895 to 2005 the CRUTem4 minus CRUTem3 differences are small. The outlier warmth in 1851-1852 stems from Rio de Janeiro data and we will investigate this in later articles.

Note that the Jones team already have some extra warmth built in for the CRUTem5 version – whenever that appears. They only have to adjust out the warm early years from Rio – and presto – there is a little more warming in the trend.
Added after comment #1.
Using the “Land” data from this University of Alabama at Huntsville site.
CRUTem3 warms much faster than the satellites and CRUTem4 faster still.

The period is to 2010 because CRUTem4 is not yet updated through 2011.
IMHO the CRU team consider themselves beyond effective scrutiny.

Atmospheric science, GISS, IPCC

Fifty ex NASA scientists and engineers tell NASA GISS – “…the science is not settled”.

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They say – “We, the undersigned, respectfully request that NASA and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) refrain from including unproven remarks in public releases and websites. We believe the claims by NASA and GISS, that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change are not substantiated, We are living in a highly advanced era where things are supposed to simple, easy, straight forward and not anything less than perfect. It can improve tadalafil 5mg buy mood and will create a feeling of pinching. There were apparent developments in her endometrial thickness, cervical levitra generic canada look at more info mucus levels, and estrogen levels. The flavors will enable you enjoy the taste of this jelly can last from anyplace between 4 to 6 hours You will be able to satisfy both yourself and your partner in the bedroom It will increase your confidence and overall well-being You can safely buy sildenafil generic viagra from drugstores. especially when considering thousands of years of empirical data. With hundreds of well-known climate scientists and tens of thousands of other scientists publicly declaring their disbelief in the catastrophic forecasts, coming particularly from the GISS leadership, it is clear that the science is NOT settled.”
Thanks to Marc Morano for the tip.

IPCC, Jones et al, Urban Heat Islands

CRUT4 warms the USA by ~0.3 degrees C in 1997 compared to CRUT3

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While working on my benchmarking study on April 5th, 2012 – I noticed a clearcut step change in 1997 between CRUT3 and CRUT4 over much of north America.
I have portrayed this in map form to understand better what the CRU team has done in the various grid boxes.

It seems that for most of the USA grid boxes CRUT4 is warmer by one division on the temperature anomaly scale (0.3 degrees C). But note the grid box for Los Angeles has warmed by 3 divisions or ~1 degree C.
I am intrigued that the CRUT team makes such large adjustments over the USA – home to so many climate researchers. In 2006 I found amazing agreement over the USA between HadCRUT2 and satellite lower troposphere temperature data. I assumed that was one area of the globe where the CRUT team had little “wriggle-room” to adjust data. Not so it seems.
Anyway, I will do more on the subject later but wanted to get this surprising result out there. Who was it said something like – “…the future is known – it is the past that changes…”

GISS, IPCC, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Landmark EIKE study of global temperature trends 1906-2005 using 2249 GISS stations concludes 0.17 UHI and a non-urban baseline warming only 0.41 degrees

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This global study at the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) – How Natural is the Recent Centennial Warming? – is the first that jumps to mind in over two decades by a group sceptical of AGW – that applies statistical analysis to thousands of temperature station data and concludes there is a standout UHI signal.
Andrew Bolt has an article on this – “Climate study: er, what man-made warming?”
I just hope this is the start of a determined research effort that might in the years ahead blunt the harm done to science by over two decades of the UHI infested various CRUTem versions.

IPCC, Surface Record

Daily Kos runs a poll on Dr Michael Mann of hockey stick fame

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Dr Michael Mann of Penn State University is the principal author of the famous graph of the 1000 years temperature trend known as “the hockey stick graph”. Recalling the late and great John Daly and his very early take on the hockey stick. Around a decade ago McIntyre and McKitrick began their destruction of the hockey stick – but the thing lives on in various reports here n there.
One of the few rights still left to us is to vote in internet polls – so have your say.

IPCC

Worriers worrying themselves sick about climate change

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I am not surprised at this finding bearing in mind the decade long constant avalanche of scaremongering IPCC compliant GreenLeft propaganda about climate in our main stream media.
I know the feeling of being worried;
I worry about how we are going to pay our future electricity bills,
I worry about how my grandchildren will be taxed to pay off their share of this Govts debts,
I worry about the damage this GreenLabor Govt is doing before we get a chance to vote them out,
I worry that presumably sane people can vote Green when the Greens oppose dams where our household water supply comes from,
Maybe worrying readers are not too worried to confide worries of their own.

Atmospheric science, IPCC

NOAA satellites say – coldest week for a decade – at 14,000 ft

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Thanks to Dave for the heads-up. Another post in the “Must be due to G-l-o-b-a-l W-a-r-m-i-n-g” series.
coldest day for a decade - at 14,000 ft
This University of Alabama at Huntsville web page where you can graph daily NOAA satellite temperature data – for various altitudes – over the last decade – shows clearly that Earth has just entered into a series of coldest ever days at 14,000 feet altitude – since 2002 that is.

IPCC

Must be due to G-l-o-b-a-l W-a-r-m-i-n-g

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How the media loves “freak”;
BBC say – “Fifteen die in freak south India cold snap”
Winter deaths are not uncommon in northern India – but lately southern India has seen century long record cold days.
Sounds like central Asia air has slipped south.
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Photos of Indian people coping with winter.
Record snow falls in northern Japan too.
Editor note 23 Jan – see comments 7,8,9 – Dave is pointing out that the 21st Jan was the coldest day globally for a decade at 14,000 ft. Must keep a check on this.

IPCC, Resources

Strange EU media article “Steep increase in global CO2 emissions” – can not mention the word C-h-i-n-a

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A weird one.
My graphic last Nov shows with crystal clarity that China is far and away the dominant nation where carbon emissions are concerned.
Chinese carbon emissions
Thanks to Chris de Freitas for the heads up.
Presumably in the full article the authors show they know about China. But who would take the time to read further.