The Ap Index is heading down sharply.
The F10.7 flux is flatlining. Note that the volatility has gone out of it
The rate of decline of the heliospheric current sheet suggests that the month of solar minimum may be still a year off.
Like the Ap Index, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field recently headed down sharply.
The Oulu neutron count is trending up steeply. If the month of solar minimum is still a year off, the neutron count can be expected to continue rising for another two years.
Solar wind flow pressure is going to new lows.
Summary
The Sun has gone very quiet and several indicators of activity are still heading down. Solar Cycle 23 may end up being 14 years long. Solar activity modelling that I have recently become aware of suggests that the Sun will have very low activity until 2016.
Category Archives: Solar
NASA struggling to play catchup with stunning facts of a very quiet sun, which is of course bad news for the IPCC
NASA’s Spaceweather.com has a small article on March 22 200 [thanks to Bob Foster for the heads-up]
DEEP SOLAR MINIMUM: Where have all the sunspots gone? As of yesterday, March 21st, the sun has been blank on 85% of the days of 2009. If this rate of spotlessness continues through the end of the year, 2009 will match 1913 as the blankest year of the past century. A flurry of new-cycle sunspots in Oct. 2008 prompted some observers to declare that solar minimum was ending, but since then the calm has returned. We are still in the pits of a deep solar minimum.
Also, Spotless Sun: Blankest Year of the Space Age 09.30.2008
Solar Cycle Prediction By Dr David Hathaway (Updated 2009/03/04) Still talks about the minimum being in August 2008 ?? Although the text file seems to indicate November 2008.
Well informed statistical view of Timo Niroma
Dr Janssens solar expert from Belgium
My solar pages, first comment on divergent predictions for cycle 23/24 was December 2006
Continuing setbacks for NOAA / NASA solar cycle 24 prediction
Updating my 30 October post. “Hard lesson about solar realities for NOAA / NASA”
December provisional RI sunspot number from the Belgian group SIDC (World Data Center for the Sunspot Index) has come in at 0.8.
Waiting on NOAA / NASA to produce their December numbers at colossal cost to taxpayers, then update the now famous Hathaway “ever-moving prediction”. There is an animation at the excellent Anthony Watts web site.
I see at solarcycle24.com we now have had 26 spotless days snce the weak spot in early December.
David Archibald compares various sunspot metrics with the current Solar Cycle (SC) transition, SC23 – SC24
In the last week or so David has sent me the following graphics illustrating where we might be in the current SC23-SC24 transition period. These warrant an article on their own. I have changed the order from the original post. Comments mainly from David.
Spotless days per month graphic
This graph shows just how different the current solar minimum is compared to those of the second half of the 20th century and those of the second half of the 19th century. The data is smoothed and that is why there aren’t any months with 30 or 31 days.
A large number of spotless days means that the following cycle is going to be late, and the later a cycle is, the weaker it will be.
This graph points to Solar Cycle 24 being very weak.
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This graphic made by David is for anybody who doubts Svensmark theory that galactic cosmic rays control climate. All the major cold periods are associated with higher Be 10, including the cold period at the end of the 19th century. The 20th century warming is clearly associated with lower galactic cosmic rays, and thus a more active Sun.
David has a bit of fun with this graphic which is aligned on the previous solar minimum. Solar Cycles 3 and 4 prior to the Dalton Minimum had very similar shapes and amplitudes to Solar Cycles 22 and 23.
Hard lesson about solar realities for NOAA / NASA
The real world sunspot data remaining quiet month after month are mocking the curved red predictions of NOAA and about to slide underneath. Time for a rethink I reckon NOAA !!
Here is my clearer chart showing the misfit between NOAA / NASA prediction and real-world data.
Regular readers might remember that we started posting articles drawing attention to contrasting predictions for Solar Cycle 24, way back on 16 December 2006. Scroll to the start of my solar threads.
Then in March 2007 I posted David Archibald’s pdf article, “The Past and Future of Climate”. Well worth another read now, I would like to see another version of David’s Fig 12 showing where we are now in the transition from Cycle 23 to Cycle 24.
Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Issued April 2007 from NOAA / NASA
Much data and commentary at solarcycle24.com
David Archibald’s elegant illustration of how late and weak solar cycle 24 is proving
There is another way of looking at solar cycles.
Solar cycles actually start with the magnetic reversal near the peak of the previous cycle. The sunspots take seven years to surface and become visible. Almost all sunspot cycles tend to be about 18.5 years long, measured from the peak of the previous cycle.
The above graph compares the average of three cycles, 21 to 23, from the late 20th century with three, 14 to 16, from the late 19th century (which had much colder weather). Also included is Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum.
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Given we are now 103 months from the peak of Solar Cycle 23, it is now too late to get a late 19th century-type outcome for Solar Cycle 24. Out of the 24 named solar cycles, Solar Cycle 24 is now the latest after Solar Cycle 5.
It is so late that it is now in no man’s land and its weakness is now more of a consideration than lateness in itself.
It is certain that we will be getting a Dalton Minimum-type experience.
David Archibald
Sunspot 990, officially the 2nd sunspot of Cycle 24
Go to solarcycle24.com and read about the latest member of the Cycle 24 family to appear.
For my other solar articles
In case the www.solarcycle24.com link changes:
Sunspot 990
04/14/2008 by VE3EN at 22:05The new sunspot has been numbered 990 by NOAA. This is now officially the 2nd sunspot of Solar Cycle 24. It is very small and poses no threat for solar flares. As you can see in the images below, the little speck is about all that makes up this region. It still maintains a nice SC24 magnetic signature.
In the latest STEREO Behind image below you can see SC24 Sunspot 990 and also what looks like a Cycle 23 region (old sunspot 987 perhaps) approaching the eastern limb.
Solar activity remains very low. The solar flux remains in the 60’s for now.
BBC keeps on denying the Sun’s influence on climate
Here is a recent email headed “Black Propaganda continues at the BBC” from JohnA informing Richard Black of the BBC about the degree of bias in BBC reporting on climate issues.
(Can I just add here my humble effort “Exactly where Lockwood and Fröhlich are wrong” ?)
Richard,
I note your latest attempt in your continuing campaign to ignore and demean the considerable and growing evidence of natural influences on climate change, and especially on the cosmic ray/solar cycle hypothesis of Svensmark et al.
Last time you raced out of the blocks with an article entitled “No Sun link’ to climate change” about a paper then yet to be published, and couldn’t be bothered beyond leaving a few voicemail messages to contact Dr Svensmark for a response. The paper of course was by Lockwood and Froelich:
Then of course, you didn’t bother reporting that reply from Svensmark because we don’t want the license payers unnecessarily confused with a solid rebuttal, would we Richard? Especially since that paper by Lockwood that you trumpeted was rife with errors.
Here’s the reply from Svensmark
Here’s another from Ken Gregory and here’s another from Anthony WattsObviously you won’t spend any time reporting on them, because life’s too short isn’t it Richard? After all, what with burning up all of those carbon credits to visit glaciers calving perfectly naturally, and polar bear populations stridently not declining but growing strongly, there’s no time for nuanced scientific reporting is there?
Now we have yet another example of your tawdry one-sided reporting with this one: “No Sun link’ to climate change” (by the way, are you minimizing your carbon footprint by recycling the titles to articles?). This time its a letter to a little known and little read environmental science journal – so we’re a long way from any expertise in statistics or solar science, aren’t we?
This time the two scientists are Sloan and Wolfendale, and would you believe it! They come to the same conclusion as the one you want to hear! I’m not a betting man but if I was, I’d bet they contacted you about their forthcoming letter and you got some nice juicy “colour quotes” to pad it out to justify your BBC salary and the rest is history!
Nobody cares, because nobody checks anything!
Except that even Sloan and Wolfendale don’t show that there is “‘No Sun link’ to climate change”, they say that even with their limited analysis of 20 some years, the Svensmark process on its own contributed perhaps 25% of the warming. That’s not insignificant.
That’s not “no link”, that’s “some link” Richard. Even this limited analysis showed some connection between the Svensmark process and global climate.
You could have asked them to run the identical analysis looking at the correlation between carbon dioxide rise and temperature over the same time period, but you don’t want to rock the boat by showing that the carbon dioxide link is even more tenuous than the Svensmark process you’re trying to bury! Carbon dioxide has continued to rise, while global temperatures appear to have stopped rising in 1998 having stabilized below the 1998 level and might even now be starting to fall. Even the Met Office admits this – but you don’t report that of course.
But that doesn’t save the day, because in the same article that you failed to quote or even link to (and I think I know why you didn’t link to it) comes this:
“However, Sloan and Wolfendale are not the only physicists to have recently turned their attention to the cosmic ray hypothesis. Vitaliy Rusov of the National Polytechnic University in Odessa, Ukraine and colleagues do not agree with the IPCC’s view that man is to blame for the recent warming. To prove their point, they looked for a direct connection between cosmic ray flux and temperature.”
“The team constructed a model of the Earth’s climate in which the only significant inputs were variations in the Sun’s power output and changes to the galactic cosmic ray flux (arxiv.org/abs/0803.2765). They found that the model’s predicted evolution of the Earth’s surface temperature over the last 700,000 years agrees well with proxy temperature data taken from Antarctic ice cores (arxiv.org/abs/0803.2766).”
“Rusov agrees that Svensmark’s cosmic ray ionization mechanism cannot fully account for the observed correlation between cosmic ray flux and cloud cover, as Sloan and Wolfendale have demonstrated. But he believes that a small but direct link between cosmic rays and clouds could itself trigger a mechanism which causes further, and greater, changes in cloud cover.”
So here was another model study over 700,000 years and the link between climate change and the solar/cosmic ray variation was crystal clear.
But you couldn’t be bothered reporting it, could you Richard? It didn’t fit the narrative you’ve constructed.
Between copying and pasting Greenpeace publicity and encouraging reckless damage to the world economy and to the world’s poor in the “Green Room”, there simply isn’t time in your day to even report accurately and fairly on environmental issues.
It doesn’t matter that the BBC Trust says that its not the BBC’s responsibility to save the planet, nor is it responsible journalism to refuse to report on the criticisms of well-qualified skeptics to the whole global warming scare, because with you and your colleagues in the hot seat to set the agenda of continuing alarm, the BBC Trust can go hang and the concerns of many BBC License payers are so much white noise to be filtered out by the next “Alarm over…” or the next “The IPCC says…” story concocted in the BBC tearoom from the latest mailshot from Greenpeace or Fiends of the Earth or the WWF – those billion dollar multi-national corporations of public alarm.
Of course when you or Shukman or the others are travelling to the four corners of the globe to report on why everyone else shouldn’t travel to the four corners of the globe, there isn’t time to stop in small faraway places like New York and report on major scientific conferences attended by hundreds of well-qualified scientists who dispute the IPCC reports and the AGW scare? Who knows? You could have interviewed the President of the Czech Republic after he give his keynote speech?
But no. No reporting because its not what you want to hear. So it wasn’t reported by the BBC. Problem solved.
Your journalistic behaviour has at least been consistent: tawdry, one-sided, lazy, propagandist, alarmist and disgraceful. This isn’t BBC journalism that John Reith espoused, its more like extreme left-wing evangelization for the repeal of market economies by way of a faked vision of environmental apocalypse.
I encourage you to get honest: just join Greenpeace’s publicity department officially and have done with it. You’re doing the job already so you might as well get paid for it.
Yours truly
John A.,
cc: The BBC Trust
Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets
This informative paper is by; Ching-Cheh Hung, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Glenn Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio 44135.
Extract from Summary; A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirtyeight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets
(Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (<10° longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent.
Download 1.7MB pdf of paper
Solar data suggest our concerns should be about global cooling.
David Archibald’s new paper “Solar Cycle 24: Implications for the United States”, will be presented at the Heartland Institute Climate Conference in NY City, March 2-4, The tablet should generic viagra in stores only be taken during the sexual stimulation and are not able to achieve the erection during sexual intercourse renders the partner sexually unsatisfied. Certain plans that cater to low-income families may also offer medications that are considered harmful by the food and Drug Administration (FDA) that lab analysis by FDA of Zencore Plus samples found the tab viagra product contains benzamidenafil. Leaving the above, there is also something which is hotly talked about today when it comes to cheap ED medications. levitra online australia It is only a commercial locksmith HB that can better sexual function in men. recommended for you viagra cheap no prescription 2008. David points out how solar data indicates that Solar Cycle 24 which is in the early throes of commencing now, could initiate global cooling.