David Archibald compares various sunspot metrics with the current Solar Cycle (SC) transition, SC23 – SC24

In the last week or so David has sent me the following graphics illustrating where we might be in the current SC23-SC24 transition period. These warrant an article on their own. I have changed the order from the original post. Comments mainly from David.
Spotless days per month graphic
This graph shows just how different the current solar minimum is compared to those of the second half of the 20th century and those of the second half of the 19th century. The data is smoothed and that is why there aren’t any months with 30 or 31 days.
A large number of spotless days means that the following cycle is going to be late, and the later a cycle is, the weaker it will be.
This graph points to Solar Cycle 24 being very weak.
Spotless days SC23/24 transition
Comparison of the progress of Solar Cycle 23 to the minima of the late 20th century and the late 19th and early 20th century.
Solar cycles
This graphic made by David is for anybody who doubts Svensmark theory that galactic cosmic rays control climate. All the major cold periods are associated with higher Be 10, including the cold period at the end of the 19th century. The 20th century warming is clearly associated with lower galactic cosmic rays, and thus a more active Sun.
Galactic influences on climate
David has a bit of fun with this graphic which is aligned on the previous solar minimum. Solar Cycles 3 and 4 prior to the Dalton Minimum had very similar shapes and amplitudes to Solar Cycles 22 and 23.
A fun comparison

25 comments to David Archibald compares various sunspot metrics with the current Solar Cycle (SC) transition, SC23 – SC24

  • John Finn

    The 4th graph is interesting particularly when we consider that temperatures between 1780 and 1800 were almost exactly the same as the temperatures between 1800 and 1820. The warmest of the 4 decades was actually the first decade of the Dalton Minimum (1801-1810)the coolest was the decade between 1811-1820 but this appears to be related the Tombura eruption in 1815. (source CET record)

    I’ll repeat my question from another thread. Does anyone have any evidence (anything at all) that there was a significant fall in temperatures during the Dalton Minimum?

  • jae

    I wonder if the politicians will reverse course when the glaciers reach the Beltway around Washington, D.C.

  • Tom

    “I wonder if the politicians will reverse course when the glaciers reach the Beltway around Washington, D.C.

    The politicians will declare that their attempts, no matter how feeble, at controlling CO2 were finally successful.

  • David Archibald

    John Finn, I sense a great thirst for knowledge in you. Sate that thirst at my website: www.davidarchibald.info The temperature data you seek is in the first paper I published – Solar Cycles 24 and 25 and Predicted Climate Response, Figure 2. The Thames froze over in central London during the Dalton Minimum, it last froze over upstream at Oxford in 1963. Note the 2 degree decline at Oberlach in Germany.

    John, the quest for truth has moved on from ancient temperature data. Craig Loehle re-instated the MWP in all its glory. From here on it is all about the Sun. Solar Cycle 24 is now so late that its lateness doesn’t matter much any more, from here on it is a question of how weak it is going to be. Keep an eye on Oulu. The real life experiment of GCRs and temperature is going to happen faster than the experiment at the LHC.

    The Oulu count for October was 6678, the highest monthly count since records began in 1964. We are still possibly six months off the month of solar minimum, and the neutron count can keep rising for a year after that. Those GCRs are the biggest climate driver, UV probably follows. We have a record Oulu neutron count and Alaska’s rivers have had an early and rapid freeze up. Coincidence? I think not.

  • John Finn

    The temperature data you seek is in the first paper I published – Solar Cycles 24 and 25 and Predicted Climate Response, Figure 2.

    No it isn’t. Oberlach is the only site which shows a dip in the Dalton Min period but there is also a substantial dip in ~1785. The Tombura eruption would seem to explain the deep low in th DM. Where is the Oberlach data and how reliable is it? It would appear to be far more variable than either De Bilt or CET data.

    The Thames froze over in central London during the Dalton Minimum

    As it did at other times in the 18th and 19th centuries.

    Craig Loehle re-instated the MWP in all its glory.

    I don’t deny the existence of the MWP (or the LIA) – I’m just not sure what caused
    Craig Loehle’s reconstruction shows both clearly, however it doesn’t show anything particularly unusual happening during the Dalton Minimum period.

    From the rest of your post can I take it that you are now saying that Solar Cycle length is a a reliable proxy for GCR count.

  • John Finn

    Sorry I seen to have posted the last message twice. Anyway – to pick up on another of David’s comments

    We have a record Oulu neutron count and Alaska’s rivers have had an early and rapid freeze up. Coincidence? I think not.

    Yes Alaska has been cold recently. But Siberia and the Arctic have not. In fact they have been considerably warmer than normal in the past few years – and remain well above average at the moment.

  • Stig Brunes

    To John Finn: You say that the Arctic is warmer than normal, and remain well above average at the moment. So is not true, at least not for all the arctic, as Svalbard
    ( high arctic 78N, Norway) has just left an october month with average temperatures below normal( see www.met.no). And for november, temperatures are still quite normal…The sea ice up here is also freezing up faster than it has in many years..

  • Stig

    check the UAH satellite temp anomalies here:

    vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt

    NoExt(land +ocean) +0.37
    NoExt(land only) +0.62

    The arctic is above normal and has been above normal for a number of years.

  • Philip_B

    John Finn, why use NH ex tropics when the dataset contains Northern Polar temps.

    Oct 2008 anomalies (NoPol, land, ocean)
    0.67 0.99 0.14

    The NoPol Ocean anomaly jumps around, by as much as 3C in a few month, probably reflecting ice coverage. NoPol october ocean anomaly temp is well below the trend and the average of recent years (although above the long term average; it’s an anomaly after all :-))

  • John Finn

    Philip_B

    My mistake – I did read from the wrong column. The point remains the same though.

    NoPol october ocean anomaly temp is well below the trend and the average of recent years (although above the long term average; it’s an anomaly after all :-))

    This where I tend to agree with the warmers. It will always be possible to find a downward (or upward) trend when we just look at “recent years”. As far as the satellite record is concerned the Arctic is warmer than it’s been for most of the last 30 years. I’m prepared to accept that it might have been just as warm say 70 years ago as I’m sure there are cyclical processes at work.

    My argument here, though, is with the magnitude of the solar effect claimed by David A. which I believe is nonsense.

    Incidentally, the NoPol anomaly shouldn’t bounce around as much as you say simply because it is an anomaly which is relative to the same time period though the Arctic is certainly more dynamic than the tropics, say.

  • Philip_B

    It’s a fact the monthly anomaly does bounce around by as much as 3C. As I said, it may well be because of ice coverage in one year and month versus other years and the same month. Although, it may be because Arctic weather is highly variable and ice is just an effect rather than the cause.

  • John Finn

    It’s a fact the monthly anomaly does bounce around by as much as 3C.

    Have you got an example of this?

  • MattN

    South Pole sure looks chilly according to UAH….

  • MattN

    One question I have: Is there current data on global cloud cover that can correlate to the increase in GCRs?

  • John A

    It’s worth pointing out that the greatest Frost Fair on the Thames occurred during the winter of 1813-1814, ie before the Tambora eruption. It could therefore not be the cause.

  • WSH

    Re 14
    Have you checked out the Monthly Observations at the very useful KNMI Climate Explorer ?

    There are several Cloud Cover datasets to explore.
    1901-2002: CRU TS 2.1 0.5° (land) Old World, New World, 1°, 2.5°
    1800-now: 2° COADS (sea), number of obs
    1983-2006: ISCCP, low, medium, high clouds.

  • John Finn

    Re: #15

    Jan 1814 was cold. Average temp according to CET was -2.9.

    However the 1813-14 winter as a whole was not particularly remarkable (DJF average ~+0.4) and certainly not as cold as 1963 (DJF average ~-0.3).

    My point still stands, though. Temperatures in the 2 decades before the Dalton Minimum, i.e. when solar activity was high, weren’t significantly different to temperatures during the Dalton Minimum.

  • Klausb

    @John Finn

    John, I took some data from 1806 – 1814:

    www.wetterzentrale.de/klima/index.html

    see:

    (hopefully it looks ok, otherwise you should take the file-urls for each set, to grab them)

    www.wetterzentrale.de/klima/tbasel1.html

    Temperaturmonatsmittel BASEL-BINNINGEN 1755- 1970.htm

    Stat-ID Name Lat Lon Hgt Zeit Fehler%
    612 664202 BASEL/BINNINGEN 47.60 7.60 318 1755 1970 .0
    Jahr JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANN

    1806 3.6 4.1 4.7 6.2 15.3 16.7 17.6 17.0 13.8 8.8 6.1 5.7 10.0
    1807 -2.4 2.7 .4 7.4 15.2 15.8 21.1 21.5 12.3 10.7 5.0 -1.4 9.0
    1808 -.5 -1.2 .0 6.5 16.1 14.8 19.6 18.6 13.4 6.3 4.1 -4.4 7.8
    1809 1.1 4.8 4.6 4.2 13.6 15.2 17.2 17.3 12.8 6.7 1.5 1.7 8.4
    1810 -6.2 -2.7 6.8 8.1 12.8 15.3 17.1 16.6 15.9 9.4 5.2 2.2 8.4
    1811 -4.3 3.5 6.6 5.0 15.8 18.1 19.3 17.3 14.4 12.1 5.0 .3 9.4
    1812 -4.4 3.0 3.6 11.6 14.1 15.6 16.4 16.5 13.1 9.4 1.3 -4.7 8.0
    1813 -3.9 3.0 3.3 9.5 13.6 14.7 15.7 15.6 12.0 8.7 3.2 -.9 7.9
    1814 -2.5 -3.9 1.9 10.5 11.3 14.8 18.3 16.2 11.9 7.3 5.2 3.5 7.9

    www.wetterzentrale.de/klima/tberlintem.html

    Temperaturmonatsmittel BERLIN-TEMPELHOF 1701- 1993

    Stat-ID Name Lat Lon Hgt Zeit Fehler%
    618 1038400 BERLIN-TEMPELHOF 52.47 13.40 50 1701 1993 .0
    Jahr JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Ann

    1806 1.8 1.5 3.0 4.9 15.0 14.2 17.0 17.2 15.0 8.4 5.0 4.8 9.0
    1807 .7 .5 .3 6.6 13.2 15.2 19.2 23.1 11.8 8.7 4.5 1.5 8.8
    1808 -.9 -1.0 -1.5 4.9 14.8 16.5 20.2 19.3 13.8 6.6 1.8 -5.9 7.4
    1809 -6.1 2.3 1.4 4.2 15.0 15.9 18.1 18.9 14.8 7.3 3.2 2.4 8.1
    1810 -3.2 -1.8 3.3 6.6 11.4 14.6 18.6 17.8 15.9 6.9 3.2 1.1 7.9
    1811 -5.6 -.6 5.3 8.2 17.6 20.4 19.8 17.7 13.6 11.3 3.6 1.5 9.4
    1812 -3.4 .0 1.5 3.4 12.3 16.2 15.7 17.5 12.2 10.0 1.2 -7.3 6.6
    1813 -3.5 3.3 3.1 9.6 12.9 15.5 17.1 15.8 13.5 6.9 3.2 .9 8.2
    1814 -4.6 -6.6 -.7 9.6 10.1 14.6 19.9 16.8 11.7 7.0 3.8 1.2 6.9

    www.wetterzentrale.de/klima/thohenpbg.html

    Temperaturmonatsmittel HOHENPEISSENBERG 1781- 1990

    Stat-ID Name Lat Lon Hgt Zeit Fehler%
    618 1096200 HOHENPEISSENBERG 47.80 11.02 977 1781 1990 .0
    Jahr JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANN

    1806 .7 1.3 1.6 2.5 13.0 13.5 15.2 14.8 12.1 7.5 5.4 4.8 7.7
    1807 -3.4 .7 -2.6 4.4 12.0 13.5 18.6 19.6 10.6 10.4 4.7 -1.0 7.3
    1808 -2.7 -3.3 -3.5 4.4 13.0 13.2 18.1 17.2 12.7 5.2 3.4 -4.7 6.1
    1809 1.7 3.8 2.5 2.0 12.0 13.0 15.5 13.5 12.0 6.6 1.3 .6 7.0
    1810 -3.0 -3.5 4.0 5.0 10.5 12.0 15.0 14.5 15.0 7.0 4.6 1.0 6.8
    1811 -5.5 .0 4.0 7.5 14.5 17.0 17.0 15.0 12.5 12.5 4.5 .0 8.3
    1812 -4.0 .5 1.5 2.0 11.5 13.5 13.5 14.0 11.0 10.0 .5 -7.0 5.6
    1813 -4.9 1.4 .1 7.0 10.8 10.7 12.2 11.7 9.8 7.1 .6 .2 5.6
    1814 -3.2 -7.7 -.1 7.9 8.0 10.9 15.4 13.7 9.0 6.5 4.2 1.5 5.5

    www.wetterzentrale.de/klima/tmuenchenr.html

    Temperaturmonatsmittel MUENCHEN-RIEM 1781- 1992

    Stat-ID Name Lat Lon Hgt Zeit Fehler%
    618 1086600 MUENCHEN-RIEM 48.13 11.70 529 1781 1992 .0
    Jahr JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Ann

    1806 2.7 2.7 3.7 5.2 15.8 16.0 17.1 17.0 13.5 7.7 5.0 3.8 9.2
    1807 -1.5 1.3 -.1 6.6 15.1 16.5 21.2 21.7 12.3 10.1 4.4 -1.3 8.9
    1808 -.7 -2.0 -1.4 5.7 15.6 15.5 19.6 18.8 13.7 5.8 2.5 -7.2 7.2
    1809 -1.3 3.0 3.2 4.4 14.1 15.6 17.8 17.0 13.1 7.0 1.5 .4 8.0
    1810 -4.6 -3.2 5.1 7.4 13.3 14.6 17.4 17.0 16.3 8.6 3.6 1.3 8.1
    1811 -5.1 .1 5.7 10.1 16.8 19.3 19.9 17.4 13.9 12.1 4.6 -1.1 9.5
    1812 -3.8 1.4 3.6 4.5 14.3 15.7 16.4 16.5 12.7 9.4 .6 -5.8 7.1
    1813 -5.2 1.8 2.3 9.0 13.5 14.3 15.7 14.9 11.7 7.9 1.7 -1.6 7.2
    1814 -3.3 -6.2 .2 9.5 10.7 14.0 18.0 15.9 10.5 7.0 3.9 1.3 6.8

  • Klausb

    more: @John Finn

    John

    Basle 1806-1814 = – 2.1°C
    Berlin 1806-1814 = – 2.1°C
    Hohenpeissenberg 1806-1814 = – 2.2°C
    Munich 1806-1814 = – 2.4°C

  • John Finn

    Klaus

    I saw your post at WUWT.

    However I’m not sure what your data is telling me. Fair enough I can see the 1806-1814 temperatures for a number of locations – and I guess they were cooler then than they are to-day. But what about the rest of the 19th century – or the 18th century. My point is that the Dalton Minimum period was not any colder than similar periods both before and after the DM. For example Uppsala was actually much colder in ~1870 than during the DM. The CET record shows that there were several periods in the 19th century which were just as cold as the DM.

  • klausB

    John,
    yeah, may be I got yor point.

    (in fact, there are big differences from station to station, for that time,
    if you do rank the anual average temperature. On some stations the 1800-15 timeframe
    is way below generally, some other have some years way above average and others pretty
    much below.)

    Working on that. I’ve currently datas of 16 stations covering that timeframe – Frankfurt is a miss – no datas (-999.9) for that time. If I add CET, it would be 17.

    If you have links to Uppsala’s data – or more – I would like to add it, too.

    I’ve just started using R, data-grabbing, reformatting/reorganizing and putting it into
    an .xls file or inserting it into MySQL works already fine.

    The ‘higher’ usage, analysing and visualising/graphics I didn’t start with yet.

    Stay tuned and gimme two or three more days.

    Klaus

  • WSH

    I have uploaded this zip file just in case you guys have not got these mean monthly T data from a swag of long term Euro stations, often back into 1700’s.

  • KlausB

    @WSH,

    thank you, did help much.
    By the way can you name me the sources?
    because I do collect all from Europe what I can get
    about that data, putting every source/datas seperately
    into one big database and do comparisons.

    The whole stuff from Meteoswiss (12 stations)
    (www.meteoswiss.admin.ch/web/de/klima/klima_heute/homogene_reihen)
    I do have already iserted.

    The set from Wetterzentrale (26 stations)
    I inserted too.

    The De Bilt-, Uccle- , Hohenpeissenberg- versions from
    Hans Erren also.

    I’m currently working on Finland (data.smhi.se/met/climate/time_series/),
    Denmark and Norway.

    Klaus

  • KlausB

    @WSH,

    oops forgot to mention:
    All what I could get from UKMO/Hadley and from Armagh
    is too, already inserted.
    Gidday KlausB
    That old Euro cities data was from the WMO I was told. It was sent to me by a German guy in the early 90’s, now gone.
    I do have some more up-to-date data from Stuttgart and region from the DWD if that is any help to your efforts.

  • CPT Wayne

    In the year without a summer, during the Dalton Minimum, a great helping hand came from the eruption of Mount Tambora on April 10, 1815. It was a level 7 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) scale. The following summer, world temperatures had dropped about 0.7-1.3 degrees F. Other volcanoes had previously erupted at a VEI-level 4 force in the Caribbean, Indonesia, Japan, and the Philippines. Volcanic eruptions do tend to increase during grand solar minimums like Dalton. The solar minimum now occurring with SC24 is the Landscheidt Minimum. Looking at the sunspot chart, the present minimum may be even deeper than the Dalton. However, the volcanoes, up until now, are fewer.

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