All posts by Warwick Hughes

Growing unpopularity of GreenLabor Canberra Government corresponds exactly with post April weakness in the ASX

Comparing one year charts for DOW and ASX All Ords – note how the ASX has performed much worse that the DOW – particularly since April this year. Yet the fundamentals of our economy would be sounder than in the USA.
IMHO the unpopular GreenLabor Govt in Canberra is the cause of most of the difference. Everybody knows they view the productive sectors of our economy as simply a source of extra taxation – that they then redistribute to their unproductive constituency. Just off the charts in May 2010 they announced version 1 of the mining tax – that had a negative effect on the ASX that has been added to by the version 2 mining tax proposal – and lately the Carbon Tax.
DOW
DOW stock index
ASX All Ords (Charts by Proview)
ASX All Ords stock index
A year of “Newspolls” measuring shifting Australian Federal “Two Party Preferred” voting intentions. Note how the collapse in the ASX relative to the DOW started in April – exactly when the popularity of the Canberra GreenLabor Govt began to collapse.
A year of Newspolls
Millions of Australian investors realise that the Gillard/Brown GreenLabor Government in Canberra knows little about safeguarding Australian prosperity.
Post March 11 as talk around introducing the Govts. new Carbon Tax increased and caused the Govt to become more unpopular – worried investors began to take cash out of the ASX. Our Nation is now weaker than it need be – had we had prudent economic managers.
The sooner the Gillard/Brown GreenLabor Government in Canberra comes to an end – the better for our Nation and all of us.
No wonder concerned Australians are planning a “Convoy of No Confidence” – actually eleven truck convoys converging on Canberra on 22 August.

Queensland Flood Commission says to lower Wivenhoe Dam levels to 75% on basis September forecasts

This of course assumes that a reliable forecast exists – on which to base this proposed very serious action. The only forecasts I am aware of are the BoM Rainfall Outlooks which are published usually after the middle of the month and cover the next 3 calendar months.

I have just checked the BoM September Rainfall Outlooks for the 11 years of their archive, for the Brisbane catchment area. I make the score 5 wins, 5 failures and 1 too close to call.

If valuable dam water is to be released from say October onwards – on the basis of useless BoM 3 month forecasts – then it is inevitable there will be a considerable risk that this will be in vain.

But it would help to keep upward pressure on the price of water.

From mid 2010 I have several articles critical of BoM Outlooks:

BoM incompetence again – for the 5th month in a row

Ongoing BoM utter incompetence

#2 Ongoing BoM utter incompetence

#3 Ongoing BoM utter incompetence – month after month

#4 Temperature too – not just rain – ongoing BoM utter incompetence – month after month after month

#5 BoM Spring Outlooks – rain and temperature – more hopelessly wrong models

Somali pirates could be causing BoM seasonal Outlooks to be inaccurate

Just saw this news at ABC online. “Pirates disrupting climate change research”

Note at the end – “….so right now half the tropical Indian Ocean is out of bounds for us so it’s a big problem, both for weather forecasting but also for that longer term climate seasonal forecasting.”

Continue reading Somali pirates could be causing BoM seasonal Outlooks to be inaccurate

Another 3.2Bn taxpayers dollars down the gurgler

I read where Govt is establishing ARENA – the “Australian Renewable Energy Agency” – to manage $3.2 billion of renewable energy funding.

Some great quotes by the Green Senator Christine Milne – “It has been obvious for years that renewable energy programs in Australia are a mess of badly designed schemes run as photo opportunities…”.

Can anyone remember a worse performance by an Australian Prime Minister – bypassing Parliament to announce this huge new Carbon Dioxide Tax. Clearly her advisers must have told her, “…you could lose a vote…”.

Wasting taxpayers money on solar power

I have started this post in the hope readers can dig up more information about the history, projected cost vs final cost – claimed performance at announcement vs actual performance (if you can ever find out) – for various solar electricity generating projects. Overseas examples are welcome too.

I was prompted by Canberra GreenLabor Govt announcements in last few days of two projects that will consume $Bn’s of poor old taxpayer $’s, one at Moree in NSW and the other at Chinchilla in Queensland.

Then there is Mildura – which has been planned for some years – is it coming closer ? The owners – Silex do not seem to be enjoying a rush of investors.

Silex six months chart share price

This Wikipedia page has a summary of Australian solar electricity projects – planned and completed – so there are some starting points for investigators.

Remember too the White Cliffs project – closed now I assume – but what did that cost over the years – for how much useful electricity ?

I expect – that like windmills – these solar schemes will all be shamelessly hyped to sell them to Govts – I expect cost over-runs and that later performance reality will not be as it was hyped – but as usual with any of these subsidised boondoggles – it will not be easy to discover hard facts.

Emperor penguin in New Zealand – confused by “climate change”

Seen on a beach near Wellington – the Kapiti coast.
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Residents of south east Australia would not be surprised to see an Emperor Penguin lately.

Has there ever been an Australian Prime Minister to rival Julia Gillard ?

The ABC has this online poll asking for three words to describe your views on how Ms Gillard’s minority Government has performed.

PM Julia Gillard in 100 words
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I am trying to think of any previous PM who may have got a worse result – any ideas ?
I realise some of these entries are from GreenLeft ABC readers to the left of the PM.

New Zealand has not suffered a sequence of big shakes like this in recorded history..

This jaw dropping quote from an unspecified GNS seismologist, is in an article in the New Zealand Herald by John Roughan. “Tell Christchurch whole story”

As a now ancient geologist I am somewhat gobsmacked that in over a hundred years of logging earthquakes up and down the Alpine Fault – there apparently has not been a sequence to equal the last nine months around Christchurch.

We really are in uncharted waters.