While chasing updates for Perth Dam catchments rainfall data I have been hit by how common it is to find a marked fall of in data quality this decade. I want to emphasize I have not searched for these cases, they just jumped out in the normal course of checking data. Then I had a quick look at stations relevant to catchments east of Melbourne incl the Thomson, very poor data there.
I wonder why, considering Australia is widely believed to be in the grip of a national rain / water crisis. Our pioneers have little trouble collecting data reliably for the best part of a century and just when the nation is hit by a downturn in rainfall, the BoM appears to drop the ball on what must be one of its prime reasons for existence. I would suggest there needs to be a reallocation of resources in the BoM; more effort on archiving weather and water data history and presenting it free on the www in a usable form and less resources wasted on climate change fairy stories.
Here are the examples, I have taken a screen shot of the gap ridden recent years and you can click the station name links to see all the data for each station at the new and very useful BoM web page. The columns are monthly rain in mm, Jan to Dec left to right, with the annual total in far right column. MUNDARING WEIR Site number: 9031 Commenced: 1900, full data to end 1996, missing Jul 1987, then OK till 2001, then just as national “water crisis” hits, missing data increases. First 4 from Perth hills Western Australia then a few from catchments east of Melbourne.
Solar cycles actually start with the magnetic reversal near the peak of the previous cycle. The sunspots take seven years to surface and become visible. Almost all sunspot cycles tend to be about 18.5 years long, measured from the peak of the previous cycle.
The above graph compares the average of three cycles, 21 to 23, from the late 20th century with three, 14 to 16, from the late 19th century (which had much colder weather). Also included is Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum.
Given we are now 103 months from the peak of Solar Cycle 23, it is now too late to get a late 19th century-type outcome for Solar Cycle 24. Out of the 24 named solar cycles, Solar Cycle 24 is now the latest after Solar Cycle 5.
It is so late that it is now in no man’s land and its weakness is now more of a consideration than lateness in itself.
It is certain that we will be getting a Dalton Minimum-type experience.
From Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group News, very much worth your time to read. I think it is fair to say Dr Henderson-Sellers has been a long term supporter of the IPCC and it is stunning news that she is publishing her reservations.
Contrast this with the evangelical certainty of the Rudd Government (Australia) rushing policy to save the planet, at colossal cost to all Australians. For what benefit ? I would say zero measurable effect on global climate.
The source article on the Pielke site includes:
The rush to emphasize regional climate does not have a scientifically sound basis
Until and unless major oscillations in the Earth System (El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) etc.) can be predicted to the extent that they are predictable, regional climate is not a well defined problem. It may never be. If that is the case then we should say so. It is not just the forecast but the confidence and uncertainty that are just as much a key.
Climate models need to be exercised for weather prediction; there are necessary but not sufficient things that can best be tested in this framework, which is just beginning to be exploited.
Energy budget is really worrisome; we should have had 20 years of ERBE [Earth Radiation Budget Experiment] type data by now- this would have told us about cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. I’m worried that we’ll never have a reliable long-term measurement. This combined with accurate ocean heat uptake data would really help constrain the big-picture climate change outcome, and then we can work on the details.
Forecasters say the recent La Nina caused the flooding in Queensland last summer but ended too soon to be considered a drought-breaker.
Senior climatologist Brad Murphy says it is about to get a lot drier.
“Up in the north you’ve had most of the rain you can expect for the next six months, until the next wet season,” he said.
“There is going to be the odd rainfall around over the dry period, but farmers shouldn’t be counting on getting any more rain between now and the next wet season.
“It’s very hard to say, I mean we can’t put one season down to global warming if we’re looking at over a long period of time,” he added.
“The monsoon finished a little bit earlier than we would have liked and the rainfall in the last couple of months has been quite low.”
Doctor Roger Stone from the University of Southern Queensland says the chances of drought-breaking rain over the next three months are only about 10 per cent.
Just in the first half of June, most of the southern part of Queensland outside the wet tropics, (which are of course now in dry season mode) has experienced good rains as this BoM map for June to date rain anomalies shows.
[Note by WSH, this post re-written 24 May. The webpage speech of David Henderson is unchanged]
David Henderson recently commented on a major presentation by Professor Mohan Munasinghe, a Vice-Chair of the IPCC. He argues that today’s received opinion on climate change issues incorporates three mutually reinforcing and unwarranted
That the official policy consensus, as widely interpreted today by governments and international agencies, mirrors prevailing scientific opinion and goes no further than it would warrant.
That prevailing scientific opinion must now be viewed as no longer open to serious question.
That the process of review and inquiry from which prevailing scientific opinion has emerged, and in particular the IPCC process as its leading element, are professionally above reproach.
In his view, all these beliefs are unfounded. They show a lack of awareness respectively of the present extent of overstatement, overconfidence, and ingrained bias.
Not for the first time, Henderson draws attention to the failure on the part of treasuries and finance ministries across the world to treat climate change issues in an inforrned and resourceful way.
Al Gore Calls Myanmar (Burma) Cyclone a ‘Consequence’ of Global Warming. Gore claimed global warming is forcing ocean temperatures to rise, which is causing storms, including cyclones and hurricanes, to intensify.
Lets take a look at the FACTUAL EVIDENCE.
First the lower troposphere in the tropics has been COOLING over 16 months.
This is the opinion of Bruce Haigh, writing an article about the future effects of climate change, Weather the Weather, at newmatilda.com Bruce Haigh is a retired Diplomat who now farms near Mudgee; he irrigates grapes and olives. Bruce writes and comments on domestic and international affairs; he regularly presents at conferences, seminars and training sessions in relation to water issues and strategic planning.
I am bringing some rainfall data to Bruce’s attention.
I am fascinated to hear what readers think of this idea about Australia becoming a military dictatorship.
Primarily exposing faulty methodologies behind global temperature trend compilations