From: Terry Dunleavy [email@example.com]
The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition
Media release (immediate) 7 June 2007
World climate predictors right only half the time
“The open admission by a climate scientist of the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Dr Jim Renwick, that his organisation achieves only 50 per cent accuracy in its climate forecasts, and that this is as good as any other forecaster around the world, should be a wake-up call for world political leaders,” said Rear Admiral Jack Welch, chairman of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition.
Yesterday the coalition published an analysis of seasonal climate predictions by NIWA over the past five years which found that the overall accuracy of the predictions was just 48 per cent.
Defending the Niwa record, Dr Renwick said his organisation was doing as well as any other weather forecaster around the world. He was quoted by the country’s leading newspaper, the New Zealand Herald as saying: “Climate prediction is hard, half of the variability in the climate system is not predictable, so we don’t expect to do terrifically well.” Later on New Zealand radio, Dr Renwick said: “The weather is not predictable beyond a week or two.”
Continue reading Climate predictions “right only half the time”
I have two graphics here comparing the “old” CRUTem2 data of Jones, with the new Hadley Centre CRUT3. Looking at 140 years of New Zealand land based data and we now see huge extra warming in the Hadley Centre CRUT3 gridded data.
Continue reading Hadley Centre inserts more warming into New Zealand climate history
Anthony Watts of northern California has just posted some very informative photographs of weather recording stations in his region north of San Francisco showing the temperature sensors placed near local heat sources. (ClimateAudit has a new post too introducing Anthony’s work.)
In 2001 I put up a page on what the various temperature data told for the Los Angeles grid cell.
More recently a paper in 2005 found that both the LA grid cell (30-35N, 115-120W) and San Francisco grid cell (35-40N, 120-125W) where Anthony’s stations locate, both have greatly varying trends 1976-2003 according to whether you believe Jones et al/CRU data or the GHCN data. See my post Is this 2005 paper by leading IPCC climate scientists, deceptive ? which links to my new map showing that in 57% of global grid boxes, CRU and GHCN vary by more than 1 degree per century.
Continue reading Weather station urban heating realities
I have heard muttering in the ranks that comments have not been getting through our trained ranks of expert censors (Bad Behavior and Spam Karma). So we decided to do what any corporation does when faced with failure – upgrade everything in sight and give the place a good lick of paint.
Thus, the WordPress software has been upgraded to the latest and greatest version (2.2) as has Bad Behavior and Spam Karma. And the theme has been upgraded as the old one didn’t work with the new regime and had to be “reintroduced to the challenges of the market place” as they would say in IBM.
If you have trouble with commenting, then please e-mail me at inward AT warwickhughes.com and our crack team of experts will retrieve your immortal prose from the flames. Maybe.
Michael Derry tells me he has been working on this scheme for some years now. All explained at www.kimberleywater.com/
I looked for cost estimates to build these million ton supertankers but could not see anything.
A reader has emailed to say,
“Virtually all GCMs result in the temperature of the troposphere at the
tropics increasing at about 1.3x that of the increase in the surface temperature. But all observations show that troposphere temp in the tropics is increasing at 1/2 to 1/3 that rate. Isn’t that proof that the greenhouse effect can not be causing an increase in surface temperature? How can something gaining less heat(trop.), heat something gaining more heat(surface)?
I have pulled the following data from the KNMI ClimateExplorer, climexp.knmi.nl/
The graphic below shows the differences between MSU and the Hadley Centre and GHCN/CAMS data.
These quotes are from Hansard for Question time in the WA Legislative Assembly, Thursday 17 May 2007. Note, Hansard is the Australian Parliamentary transcripts, or diary.
Mr A.J. CARPENTER (WA Premier): “..It has stopped raining in the south west of Western Australia. The rain no longer falls from the sky in sufficient quantities to fill the dams to fill the pipes to fill the cups for people to drink…”
The Premier was answering a question which included the Agritech proposal to produce water for Perth from Wellington Dam, full text is reproduced below.
Data for this graphic is from the WA Govt WaterCorp website.
NOTE: Wellington Dam (just west of Collie in SW WA) overflowed in 2005 and near overflowed in 2006, despite the low rainfall that year. In most years WaterCorp releases several tens of GL of water from the foot of the dam to reduce salinity. This water now wasted and other available water would be the basis for Agritech’s proposal to supply water to Perth see: www.agritechsmartwater.com.au/
To see several graphics putting SW WA rainfall in perspective with catchment flows and Govt policy, click here.
Continue reading West Australian Premier talks utter nonsense about rainfall
We are talking here about the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) “National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook”. The BoM produces these predictive maps every month looking ahead for the next three months. I have for some years been critical that these Outlook maps are too often grossly wrong when compared to the rain anomaly maps National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook produced by the BoM, 100 days or more later of course.
See my pages where Outlook maps are juxtaposed with real world rain anomalies. The quote of “totally useless” in my post headline comes from an article on ABC Online news, ABC being our Govt. owned Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
Continue reading BoM rain predictions “totally useless”
When the Australian Federal Govt in February this year announced the phasing out of incandescent light bulbs (ILB) in favour of Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL’s), I thought back to our ex Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser and his decision (~1980 ?) to make imperial measuring tapes / rulers ILLEGAL after introducing metric measurements. Well, Malcolm’s Govt had to back down on that one and to this day we are free to buy measuring devices marked both metric and imperial.
This news item from Prospect, Maine USA relates how a resident was faced with costs of $2000 to cleanup Mercury released from a broken CFL.
Current affairs TV in Australia is now running stories pointing out the obvious facts that switching to CFL use will lead to increasing Mercury in our landfills. There must be more important things for our Government to have its attention on than forcing us to use light bulbs that many do not want.
Continue reading Electric light lunacy
To read petition and sign if you wish please click here.