NZ Temperature difference shows climate science not settled

The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition
Hon Secretary: Terry Dunleavy MBE,
14A Bayview Road, Hauraki, North Shore City 0622
Phone (09) 486 3859 – Mobile 0274 836688 –
Email terry@winezeal.co.nz
www.climatescience.org.nz/

2 August 2006

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Temperature difference shows climate science not settled

A major difference in measurement between NIWA and the international body IPCC, concerning New Zealand temperature trends contradicts the assertion of the Minister for Climate Change, David Parker, that climate science is “settled.” This claim has been made by an expatriate New Zealand earth scientist, Warwick Hughes, now living in Perth.
Continue reading NZ Temperature difference shows climate science not settled

US expert finds hurricane intensity under-reported in early years

This article from news.com.au is timely just after my post re a drop off in Australian deaths from climate disasters.
This is the Dr Chris Landsea who resigned from the IPCC some time ago because he was not being listened to. Heavens above, why would anyone expect the IPCC to listen to an expert. Continue reading US expert finds hurricane intensity under-reported in early years

Carbon dioxide and warming

“Thus adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere warms it a bit and leads to more water vapour and hence more warming.”

This is a direct quote from the New Zealand climate authority NIWA, in a media release after the formation of the newly formed ‘New Zealand Climate Science Coalition’ in May.

This NIWA statement sounds to me like early 1990’s IPCC inspired scares about a positive feedback and the threat of runaway warming. Is it not obvious that climate history of the last million or so years is one of repeated runaway COOLING, lurching the planet into a series of ice ages. I see no evidence for runaway warm periods, so it is obvious that the climate system incorporates feedback mechanisms that largely negate the effect NIWA is trying to express.
Continue reading Carbon dioxide and warming

Long term reduction in Australian deaths from, bushfires, cyclones and heatwaves.

The data for this graphic is sourced from the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) online Disasters Database. www.ema.gov.au/ema/emaDisasters.nsf
Added 8 August, I have just heard of this 2006 report by Dr Indur M. Goklany of the US Dept of Interior, “Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events: Global and U.S. Trends”, 1900-2004. See entries at the Roger Pielke Snr Blog.
History of disaster deaths in Australia
Interesting that huge reductions in all categories of deaths are against a greatly increased population compared to pre WWII.
Continue reading Long term reduction in Australian deaths from, bushfires, cyclones and heatwaves.

Is massive UHI warming in China distorting Jones et al gridded T data ?

A recent paper discussing long term temperature trends in China presents a graphic of century long trends including the Jones data.

ZHAO Zongci, DING Yihui, LUO Yong, and WANG Shaowu, “Recent Studies on Attributions of Climate Change in China” , Acta Meteorologica Sinica 2005, Vol 19, 389-400.”

The caption refers to four trends from various sources being coloured but my copy was B & W. Anyway, it is clear there is much agreement and what really tweaked my interest was the strong warming post 1970.

Using the gridded data downloadable from www.CO2science.org comparisons have been made between the Jones data and the UAH / NASA satellite MSU data for the period (1979-2005). Results in Table A for a block of eight grid cells covering much of Eastern China were quite stunning in revealing a difference of 0.96 degrees C for the 27 year period 1979-2005.

Jones vs MSU trends 1979-2005

Can anyone have any doubt that the reason for this huge difference is in fact the influence of rapidly expanding UHI warming on China weather station data?

Similar experiments were repeated over Europe, Central Asia / Russia, Sahara to Iran(added 18 Aug) and New Zealand. Results are set out in Table A and reveal a stark contrast to the blizzard of pro-IPCC views in recent times that global temperature datasets from the surface and lower troposhere are now in substantial agreement following corrections by the UAH team.

Any agreement in global trends between the various datasets is probably due to the averaging of various errors from here and there to give an appearance of agreement.

Wegman on “Dueling Weblogs” and Information Asymmetry

John A: I would like to emphasize that the following is my personal view and not necessarily that of Steve McIntyre or Ross McKitrick.

In amongst the consideration of the proxy, statistical and social network evidence of the Wegman report, there is also this (page 48), which I could construe (albeit distantly) as a personal criticism:

5. As mentioned in our introduction, much of the discussion on the ‘hockey stick’
issue has taken place on competing web blogs. Our committee believes that web
blogs are not an appropriate way to conduct science and thus the blogs give
credence to the fact that these global warming issues are have migrated from the
realm of rational scientific discourse. Unfortunately, the factions involved have
become highly and passionately polarized.

Continue reading Wegman on “Dueling Weblogs” and Information Asymmetry

Antarctic Peninsula warmer in mid-Holocene

Some interesting papers from an AGU conference.
“Mid Holocene Warmth in the Antarctic Peninsula: evidence from the Vega Drift”. So, 4000 to 7000 years ago this area was warmer than now.

Jumbo piston core NBP0003-38, a 20.53 meter core from the Vega Drift (Erebus and Terror Gulf, northeastern Antarctic Peninsula), contains a high resolution record of climate extending back ~8500 years. Lithologic and foraminiferal data presented previously document mid-Holocene conditions warmer than today. These data include increased clay concentration, higher concentrations of ice-rafted debris, and higher magnetic susceptibility below ~6000 ybp, the consequence of extensive meltwater and iceberg calving. This change in lithology is accompanied by the presence of a benthic foraminferal assemblage characteristic of the western Antarctic Peninsula, as contrasted to a lower productivity assemblage observed in the upper section of core. New diatom data confirm mid-Holocene warmth, as based on analysis of the distribution of the two varieties of the species Eucampia antarctica. They are distinguished by their symmetry, with the asymmetric E. antarctica var. antarctica characteristic of subpolar waters and the symmetric E. antarctica var. recta a polar form. Increased relative abundance of the sub-polar form occurs between ~4000-7000 ybp, overlapping and then post-dating the time interval characterized by increased ice melt. In addition, the ratio of terminal to intercalary valves was analyzed. A direct consequence of chain length, a function of the amount of growth, this ratio has been used to record oscillations in winter sea ice cover. Data from JPC38 show longest chain lengths (and least winter sea ice) from ~4000-7000 ybp, in concert with the dominance of the sub-polar form of the species. These data suggest the possibility that mid-Holocene warmth at this site was associated with the southward migration of sub-polar waters and consequently less winter sea ice.

So much for all the years of the British Antarctic Survey beating up warming trends from station data there.

Another interesting paper mentions an active undersea volcano in the area. “A Benthic Invertebrate Survey of Jun Jaegyu Volcano: An active undersea volcano in Antarctic Sound, Antarctica”.

Jun Jaegyu volcano, an Antarctic submarine volcano, was dredged in May 2004 during cruise 04-04 of the RV Laurence M. Gould to determine rock, sediment composition and marine macroinvertebrate diversity. The objectives of this study are to examine the benthic assemblages and biodiversity present on a young volcano. The volcano is located on the continental shelf of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula, where recent changes in surface temperature and ice shelf stability have been observed. This volcano was originally swath-mapped during cruise 01-07 of the Research Vessel-Ice Breaker Nathaniel B. Palmer. During LMG04-04 we also studied the volcano using a SCUD video camera, and performed temperature surveys along the flanks and crest. Both the video and the dredge indicate a seafloor surface heavily colonized by benthic organisms. Indications of fairly recent lava flows are given by the absence of marine life on regions of the volcano.

Jun Jaegyu volcano

We are looking for more data.

Primarily exposing faulty methodologies behind global temperature trend compilations