Another solid win at ClimateAudit.org

Steve McIntyre over at Climate Audit has had his hard work pay off with a discovery that the USA temperature data of Dr James Hansen of NASA GISS has concealed an error in recent years. This I understand affects the ranking of which is the hottest year in USA thermometer history. NASA had claimed 1998 as the hottest year for USA but I understand that after this error is allowed for, 1934 is still the hottest year.

It is a shame that the Climate Audit site is down as I write but they will be back again pretty soon I am sure.
I thought I would just quickly illustrate that there is little agreement bewteen the big climate groups about the ranking of 1934 and 1998. Using data from the KNMI ClimateExplorer.nl

USA T trends

We see that the Hadley Centre and Jones both have 1998 well below 1934. Jones CRUT2 stops in 2005 but the Hadley Centre CRUT3 has 2006 (1.08689) almost as warm as 1934 (1.09514).

The GHCN based CAMS has 2006 relatively lower than the UK based groups and the Spencer and Christy satellite data from the lower troposphere sees 1999 higher than 1998 and 2006 not notably warm as the Hadley Centre finds but the satellite data obviously includes areas of ocean while all the other series are land only.

Seawater desalination questions

Anyone reading my blog knows I think the Western Australian Government has been very premature in opting for very expensive and high environmental impact seawater desalination to augment Perth water supplies when several other vastly cheaper options are available to harvest free rainwater in both dams and local rivers or local Perth region groundwater.

Just quickly to recap the three main areas where supplies could be augmented much cheaper than seawater desalination.

  • Managing bush in dam catchments as it was done ten years ago could add 100 GL per year on average.
  • Cutting the Gnangara pines forthwith and replacing them with a mix of native vegetation and housing could add a similar amount to annual pumping potential on the Gnangara Mound groundwater.
  • The Avon and Murray rivers could easily supply up to say 75 GL per year of slightly saline water which could augment the Agritech Wellington Dam desalination project to around 100 GL per year.

OK ! Have I made my point that turning to ultra-expensive seawater desalination for Perth was totally unnecessary ? In other words, another HUGE COSTLY GOVT MISTAKE.

Now some questions that puzzle me about the current situation.

  • We have a foreign company (or companies ?) engaged in doing multi-billion dollar business (must total $5 to 10 Billion now) with three or four State Governments and yet how many people knows who this company is ?
  • What appears in the Australian media about the foreign desalination company(ies) ?
  • Do they say anything in public in their own right ?

I have been told by a academic water expert from a prestigious Perth university, the sort of place the media contact for quotes on water stories, that “..the technology for desalination is moving forward at an unbelievable rate..”.

Yet the WA Govt. Water Corporation say water from our first seawater desalination plant at Kwinana costs $1.20 per kilolitre but water from the proposed Binningup plant will cost $2.00 per kilolitre. Both water factories are planned to output 45 GL or potable water per year.

Put another way, the Kwinana plant with cost over-runs has cost nearly $500 Million but the proposed Binningup plant is estimated already to be ~$1Billion, over-runs still to come. Are seawater desalination construction costs sky-rocketing like this around the world ?

I am also interested to learn if the proposed $1 Billion Binningup plant was put out for international tender ?

Another issue puzzles me and that is who has been behind the concept that has been floated often in our media in recent years and was even the subject of a referendum in Toowoomba, SE Queensland. This notion that our water shortage is so acute that in some communities we could be forced to drink treated sewage. I am fascinated to learn who has been driving these media campaigns.

Enough questions for now.

Perth is not running out of water, water is running out of Perth

Recent TV news about ample river flows for the Avon Descent white water boat race near Perth, Western Australia, raise an interesting question. The Avon River joins the Swan River and runs right through the centre of Perth.

Perth has a water shortage, water users are on restrictions, water prices are sky-rocketing from 16 cents per kilolitre to $2 per kilolitre, so why is this water wasting to sea in the Swan River, right through the heart of Perth. Amazing that there is not ONE word in the media joining the dots between the abundant water in the Avon, wasting to sea and the Perth water crisis.

Weird hey ? Continue reading Perth is not running out of water, water is running out of Perth

Colossal Govt. waste of free rainfall

May to July rainfall in Perth dam catchments has been just over average going by data from the BoM stations: Mundaring, Karnet and Dwellingup. Taking an average of the 3 BoM stations, 561 mm has fallen over the 3500 sq kms of catchments meaning that 1,963 GL of water has fallen free from the skies.

From my graphic showing the drastic decline in catchment yields since the mid 1990’s, we can see that current yields are ~3%.
Continue reading Colossal Govt. waste of free rainfall

1996 paper finds UHI bias in Jones et al IPCC South African temperature trends

This paper by Dr Robert Balling Jr and myself examines a series of rural and small town South African temperature data and compared 30 year trends with available Jones 1994 grid box trends.
Rural vs IPCC T trends
We found clear evidence that warming trends were much higher in the Jones data which of course includes many large urban centres. The trend of our 19 station series from non-urban sites is shown red in this extract from our Fig 2.
Continue reading 1996 paper finds UHI bias in Jones et al IPCC South African temperature trends

W.A. Govt propaganda takes water supply “post rain”

In full page newspaper advertisements in Perth on the 7th and 8th of July the Western Australian government controlled water Authority, Water Corporation, published this graphic with a blue trendline (Govt. statistical experts say 1960-2006 average ??) showing water supply from rain ending in about a decade from now.
WA Govt Perth dam inflow and 1960-2006  trend
Continue reading W.A. Govt propaganda takes water supply “post rain”

Primarily exposing faulty methodologies behind global temperature trend compilations