Western Australian election confirms trend against the Greens who are looking down the barrel of more losses in upcoming Federal election
March 11th, 2013 by Warwick HughesFollowing on from the October 2012 ACT Election where the Greens lost three of four seats – early indications from the Western Australian upper house (Legislative Council) count is that they might have losses there too as the Liberal Govt was returned in a comfortable win, possibly of landslide proportions.
From ABC News – Greens disappointed with election result
It might take several days for WA Legislative Council trends to firm up.
I wonder what might be in store for the Greens at the 2013 Federal Election if the major parties come to their senses and promote the sensible idea to simply “number the Greens last”. I am interested to hear what readers think might be ways the Greens Nationally could try and turn this bad situation around. For example – could Bob Brown return as leader ?
Added 14 March – chart shows how Greens vote increased post 2000 as the Democrats faded away. The Democrats were a centrist group whose supporters could not decide between Labor and Liberal/National. Whereas the Greens are generally accepted as being to the left of Labor. So the Greens peak voting percentages in the years 2008-2011 must include some ex-Democrats who might be unhappy with the Greens performance in the GreenLabor Gillard July 2010-Sep 2013 Federal Government to date.
Particularly from second half 2012 after their long time leader Dr Bob Brown retired – also the Greens could be seen to be obstructing Labor efforts to close our open borders and then last month when the Green Leader Christine Milne accused Labor of “…walking away from its agreement with the Greens and into the arms of the big miners.”
Federal polls have the Greens at around 11%. The chart shows recent weakness in Green numbers in the ACT, WA and to a lesser extent Queensland.
Posted in News and Views | 19 Comments »
March 11th, 2013 at 12:35 pm
No way would he come back. He saw the writing on the wall and ran for cover.
The Greens did very well when there was no hope of them getting into power, and they could say whatever would appeal to their membership. No one paid any attention to that, and just used them for a protest vote. Once their policies became possible the public took notice of what they stood for, hence the drop in support, which is likely to be permanent.
March 11th, 2013 at 5:37 pm
The Greens can still win the Kimberley seat, in Broome itself the Greens easily outscored all other parties.
This has a lot to do with James Price Point. The latest paper on the extraordinary dinosaur footprints and trackways from Dr Tony Thulborn that are at JPP, has a link here too and is well worth a look.
We wont have a result until next week after preferences. The Greens are second at the moment with nearly 30% of the Primary vote, just 50 odd votes behind the Liberals over the whole Kimberley.
March 11th, 2013 at 5:50 pm
Here are the Kimberley numbers from the Western Australian Electoral Commission. with 55.23% counted. Assuming the Broome numbers are in – it will be interesting to see if the result stays this tight.
March 11th, 2013 at 6:03 pm
Libs now about 149 in front. It may all come down to Rod Ovilgie’s preferences (that’s if all ALP preferences go to Greens and NP goes to Libs). Will be close.
www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2013/guide/kimb.htm
March 11th, 2013 at 9:05 pm
Not sure if the figures have been updated since earlier posts, but it now looks as if Bloom (Lib) is home and hosed. She has 27.3% of the vote: add the Nats’ 20.6%, that’s 47.9%. Assuming the Australian Christian Party (1.5%) preferences flow to Libs, 49.4%. From there, Bloom only needs the donkey vote to get home, without counting any preferences from people who consciously voted for Ogilvy, the man at the top of the ballot paper.
Also, leakage of ALP preferences away from the Green candidate is likely to be a fair bit larger than the leakage of Nats preferences away from the Libs.
March 11th, 2013 at 9:15 pm
Er, can I take that back?
Ten minutes later I have had another look, and with new figures the Lib plus Nat total has gone down 3% and the Green plus ALP total has gone up 4%, with the ALP not the Green leading.
Now shows a win for the ALP. May be a way to go until numbers settle down in this seat.
March 12th, 2013 at 8:53 am
This is only provisional results, preferences wont be sorted until next week. Ogilvie had Greens before Liberals I believe too, his votes were mainly from Derby where he is from.
March 12th, 2013 at 8:55 am
Since I last checked yesterday there has been a large number of – “Special Institutions, Hospitals & Remotes” votes come in. Labor does well out in the boondocks.
Leaving the Kimberley seat – I can not see the Greens fading away – like the Democrats did – but the critical issue for them is getting enough 1st pref votes plus prefs to win Senate seats. Hopefully their numbers will be reduced as voters see them with greater clarity.
March 12th, 2013 at 8:57 am
The Liberals or Nationals would easily have taken this seat from Labor if it wasn’t for Barnett’s pig-headed push for the Gas plant to go here at all costs, even against the aims of Woodside partners and the Broome Community.
March 12th, 2013 at 8:59 am
The Greens never expected to win, but to send a message, which they certainly have done here. To beat the Liberals easily in Broome would be a big shock to Barnett.
March 12th, 2013 at 10:05 am
There are 1000 postal votes to go, Chris Maher, Greens candidate says he is expecting to do well here which could put him back in front. Still too close.
March 12th, 2013 at 10:12 am
Nationally, Greens will never get too far with the electorate while they have candidates like those in Federal Parliament now. They need candidates with a much less extreme bent, just like the Kimberley one today. Then they need to condemn the anti-environmental warmists for the climate scam! Wont happen.
March 12th, 2013 at 4:59 pm
Maybe Bob has been working the “intergalactic phones”. Are the aliens at long last answering the call?
March 15th, 2013 at 4:52 am
I found these bio notes for Chris Maher the Greens candidate in the WA State seat of Kimberley.
Pindan Post says it is not all over yet in the Kimberley counting – read what Tom says – Greens may still win…Kimberley.
March 15th, 2013 at 10:42 am
I have known Chris for over 20 years, he is well known and well liked in Broome, has a lot more sense and abilities than your Eastern States Green candidates and politicians, thank goodness. He is also our local Elvis, complete with black Cadillac with the number plate Elvis, and Priscilla is his partner in crime. He can sing really well too! I am a conservative myself, but he leaves the other candidates far in his wake for integrity and ability.
March 15th, 2013 at 10:51 am
We have a real battle on our hands in Broome to stop Premier Barnett develop a massive LNG port at James Price Point. The science that would be wrecked here is quite phenomenal, is only now seeing the light of day. Check it out at the links in the post linked on WSH comment at 14.
March 15th, 2013 at 11:03 am
Elvis, spotted in Broome
March 15th, 2013 at 2:09 pm
Only in the Kimberley …
March 19th, 2013 at 3:58 pm
How far Labor have fallen, results for the Upper House in Mining and Pastoral Region:
The results for the election for the upper house region of Mining and Pastoral were announced at the WAEC Central Count building in Beaufort Street, Perth.
The results were, 2 Liberals, 2 Nationals, 1 Labor and 1 Green.
In the Kimberley, Greens outscored Liberals by 10% in Broome, and only came within 440 votes of winning Kimberley from Labor. Liberals in Broome had a swing away from them, despite a swing to them statewide of 8.5%. The Green vote was doubled.