Following on my Are readers checking how the much prophesized El Nino is travelling ? – I hope readers are checking that the 30 day SOI is now neutral and the 90 day SOI is -6.12 – and equatorial winds are still mainly easterly.
Read The Pause in the Stratosphere by Steven Capozzola – an interesting mechanism to explain the much vilified temperature pause in the troposphere. RSS temperature timeseries show what Steven Capozzola is talking about.
The TLT trend shows the temperature pause in the lower troposphere with crystal clarity. While the TLS trend shows the cooling trend halted from ~late 1990’s onwards.
This chart from report 56 at this WMO page shows how global stratospheric ozone levels have bounced since the 1990’s.
Remember on 12th May 2015 the Bureau of Meteorology BoM suddenly called an El Nino as being on for 2015. I thought at the time it was a sudden jumping on board the El Nino express for the BoM in the wake of NOAA’s earlier determination to have an El Nino. We have heard various newsmakers and groups calling for an El Nino over 16 months now.
Anyway – take a look at the SOI – which has been rising since 26th May. And am I seeing easterly winds here.
Lets just say it is a sputtering start if a real El Nino is to develop.
I am not predicting anything – just pointing out real world data –
For all of 2014 now an assortment of warmists have sounded fanfares about the upcoming El Nino – even “Super El Nino” – prayer mats out begging the weather gods to deliver them a year hotter than 1998. But both the 30 & 90 day SOI has been rising for a month – nothing is surer than another El Nino will lurch onto the stage sometime – just has not obliged warmists by turning up this year. Rain for December.
You have to love the GreenLeft media – the complete and utter failure of seven months of warmists predicting and beating up the possibility of a Super El Nino in 2014 transmogrifies into – “a real enigma”
There is no enigma – simply that your climate models are mostly shite.
According to the ABC – a recent article by Professor Matthew England University of New South Wales – has claimed – “…stronger than normal winds in the Pacific are the explanation for a pause in global warming…”
I just thought I would open this for discussion here.
Does anybody know of long term land based wind observations in the tropical Pacific.
I have looked at the ozone hole issue a few times over the years – and have had a suspicion that various factors affect stratospheric ozone levels apart from destruction wrought by gases released from old fridges and freezers.
In the previous post the graphic indicates that ozone and temperature could be more congruent in the early years 1978-1985.
Out of curiosity I compared TOMS monthly data ex KNMI to the Arosa ozone series from Switzerland.
Lo and behold – TOMS numbers look too large in the early years too.
The KNMI TOMS series is a blend with more recent data from the European Space Agency SCIAMACHY ozone data. TOMS having ended in 2007.
R.I.P. TOMS: NASA Ozone Instrument Laid to Rest After Three Decades
I saw several articles around the media – such as this from the ABC – Ozone hole healing a slow process –
and thought it worth while posting the satellite ozone and temperature data – some close fits there at times.
So the recent improvement is a false dawn.