Japanese scientist Kyoji Kimoto proposes that there is a long standing error in IPCC AGW theory.
According to IPCC’s AGW theory,Climate Sensitivity CS (With Feedback WF) is expressed as follows.
CS(WF)=CS(No Feedbck NF)x(Feedback effects)=1.2K x 2.5=3K
In IPCC theory, it is the most important postulation that CS(NF) is 1.2K,
which is based on Cess’s calculation having mathematical error – for details downbload 76KB 6 page pdf report.
From energy budget of the earth,CS(WF) is 0.2-0.5K instead of 3K,
which coincides with obsevational CS(WF) of 0.2-0.8K by other methods.
Other posts on this blog along similar subjects.
IPCC models have failed to correctly deal with changes in air density – 2011 by Canadian Dean Brooks
Recent Evidence for Reduced Climate Sensitivity – March 2008
Hoyt,D., 2007: The collapse of arguments for high climate sensitivity.
How MINISCULE is the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect ? – 2006 – Sherwood Idso’s 1998 paper online.
A Critical Examination of Climate Change – Dr Doug Hoyt 2005
Saw this gem headlined – Sudden stratospheric warming responsible for UK’s icy blast – which contrives to blame cold wintry conditions on warming without mentioning (in 475 words), that the temperature fluctuations in the stratosphere are associated with migration of the jetstream.
But if you listen to the video explanation by Peter Gibb you will see he does refer to the polar jet.
BBC readers in a hurry who just scan the headline and move on without taking time to watch the video could take away a message that would please the IPCC.
That is a big call – like many I have been watching the SOI unable to make up its mind. Anyway – read what the Bureau of Meteorology is saying.
“Forecasters surprised by El Nino turnaround” on ABC news
Pacific’s late retreat to neutral considered unusual – Bom official statement 23 October 2012
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values – source of SOI numbers and stats every day.
Main page for dear old BoM.
This has been sent in by Dr Douglas Hoyt to promote discussion – what do readers think?
The greenhouse effect works by having an additional CO2 molecule absorb radiation and re-emit it back to the surface resulting in a net warming of the system.
The anti-greenhouse effect works by having an additional CO2 molecule being struck by an oxygen or nitrogen molecule which –
1) excites the CO2 molecule which then, in turn, emits radiation, some of it to
space, resulting in a net cooling of the system.
2) The oxygen or nitrogen molecule has lost energy in the process, so is now slower, which is how the cooling is manifested.
Increased greenhouse gases have an absorber/heating function and an emitter/cooling function. It is not clear if the two functions are perfectly balanced but they should probably both be about the same.
The presence of both processes happening could provide an explanation for absence of the tropical hot spot. It could also explain the fact that the effective temperature of the earth has remained at about 255 K to within the accuracy of the measurements ever since it has been observed by satellites.
I haven’t seen any mention of the anti-greenhouse effect in any discussions. If one performs the greenhouse calculations with an instantaneous doubling of CO2, you will overlook the anti-greenhouse effect. This plot at – THE HOCKEY SCHTICK – is supportive of the above remarks.
Timothy Curtin, “Applying Econometrics to the Carbon Dioxide “Control
Knob”,” The Scientific World Journal, vol. 2012, Article ID 761473, 12
pages, 2012. doi:10.1100/2012/761473.
Download a copy and lets have your views.
They say – “We, the undersigned, respectfully request that NASA and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) refrain from including unproven remarks in public releases and websites. We believe the claims by NASA and GISS, that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change are not substantiated, especially when considering thousands of years of empirical data. With hundreds of well-known climate scientists and tens of thousands of other scientists publicly declaring their disbelief in the catastrophic forecasts, coming particularly from the GISS leadership, it is clear that the science is NOT settled.”
Thanks to Marc Morano for the tip.
Thanks to Dave for the heads-up. Another post in the “Must be due to G-l-o-b-a-l W-a-r-m-i-n-g” series.
This University of Alabama at Huntsville web page where you can graph daily NOAA satellite temperature data – for various altitudes – over the last decade – shows clearly that Earth has just entered into a series of coldest ever days at 14,000 feet altitude – since 2002 that is.
Download the very readable 4.2Mb paper “Testing an astronomically-based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models”
by Dr Nicola Scafetta – ACRIM (Active Cavity Radiometer Solar Irradiance Monitor Lab) & Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.