Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) blames “climate change” for poor forecasting

Yes – you have to pinch yourself but the shameless BoM did say this.

In 2009 there was an “Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia” (long term = 1 to 3 months) – by the Australian Parliament House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation. If you download the full pdf report – you will find on pdf page 35 of 120

BoM stated that existing seasonal forecasts for Australia appear to have reached their peak level of performance, and may even be declining in skill as the climate changes.

Taking another look through the Nov 2009 ISI Committee report “Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia” – I doubt that any good can come from this committee “Inquiry”.

I can now see that this process has come from within the Govt – through Senator the Hon Kim Carr, the Australian Government Minister for Innovation, Industry, Science and Research – where of course the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) resides.

I have just been told by a House of Reps Clerk that – “Due to the change in Committee allocations, there is no longer a Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation.” I think this is code for – “…this Inquiry is now dead and buried”.

IMHO this so called “Inquiry” was always just a thinly veiled campaign to justify wringing more taxpayers money from Govt to fund BoM ongoing empire building.

14 thoughts on “Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) blames “climate change” for poor forecasting”

  1. It is really hard to take this one seriously. Snicker!!

    So, to take them seriously, this means that Climate Change invalidates their models so they can no longer give us valid projections or guidance for the future??


  2. I suspect that the BoM bases its forecasts on historical data back to 1901 or maybe even earlier. It has failed to realise that various semi-permanent shifts have taken place, firstly to wetter conditions from 1950 to about 1998 and then the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976 after which time the Pacific was biased towards El Nino conditions where previously it had a slight bias towards La Nina. It makes no sense to consolidate data across these steps. Any consolidation should only be back until the time when the step occurred.

    On the subject of the inquiry, I appeared before it as a witness and pointed out recent significant errors with the UK’s seasonal predictions but it turned out that the inquiry was in part to decide on funding the BoM for a joint venture with the UK Met Office into using models (weather? climate?) for seasonal forecasts. Yes, the funding was granted.

  3. Val Majkus, you may have seen the post by Malcolm Roberts at WUWT
    Malcolm has put in complaints to the Uni of Qld and to the ABC and is mailing various politicians. I support his stance although not sure if it will be productve but something in along legal lines needs to be done. Can BOM be taken to court for breach of their charter to supply accurate data to the public particularly people in rural occupations?
    I believe Dr Jennifer Marohasy now lives in Qld. ( ). She has good knowledge about the Murray-Darling and BOM’s failures.
    You can ask Warwick or Malcolm Roberts for my email address. I would be happy to correspond with you.

  4. So the BoM says they can’t predict weather due to climate change, but they’re also producing predictions of what climate change is doing. Quite skillful in some ways which have little to do with mathematics.

  5. John I read your submission and liked what you said in I think in your supplementary submission something like ‘before worrying about the accuracy of climate models maybe we should be worrying about the accuracy of the temperature data being fed into them, the BOM will look foolish if all this supposed warming comes from factors like positioning location change of urban environment of thermometors rather than warming of the climate’

    I was disappointed Warwick didn’t have time to do a submission

  6. Warwick what’s gone wrong with your automated time/date – I posted the above comment on 27/11 at 1.31 pm (Qld time) and the date on the comment is 26/11 and the time (10.29 pm)

    No matter just curious

  7. First – the blog date-time stamp has always recorded like that Val – I have assumed it must be from the server in NE USA I think – as my own “windows” date-time is OK.

    Second – I was not aware of the House of Reps Committee until last weekend – yet I follow at least three TV news shows each day and get the Canberra Times – so I think the committee was under-reported.
    Last Thursday we had lunch with a group of “climate” people here in Canberra – mostly public servants or ex – seven of the eight were not aware of the committee and one was unsure – so it is not just me. Also I note David Stockwell seems not to have heard over at Niche Modeling – because he gave me a “hat tip” when he picked it up on the 21st.

  8. Cematafriend, I’d be delighted to correspond with you; I am a fan of both Malcolm Roberts and Dr Marohasy and Warwick Hughes but I’m not sure what I can contribute
    I’m aware of Dr Marohasy’s comments on the Murray Darling and the BOM (I’m a ontributor to her blog)and on Malcolm’s wonderful persistance with his Parliamentary correspondence (Malcolm usually sends me updates)
    I’m also a contributor to Climate Correspondence which have been recently connected with NIWA’s court action
    and here’s a recent article in which I had an input
    I’m happy for Malcolm or Warwick to give you my e mail address and my name is what you know

  9. Defending the AGW myth has become the primary concern of the AGW proponants. Science and logic are the victims of their Quixotic battle with reality.

  10. BOMs forecasting skills are declining because predicting natural variability is still a novel experience. The cool PDO took them quite by surprise.

  11. Warwick, this report is a gem!
    Some points that I garnered:
    1. CSIRO/BOM are pushing for a monopoly on forecasting by recommending techniques that require expensive supercomputing facilities.
    2. The Computer Model that CSIRO/BOM want to buy is the one from the UK Met Office. Is this the model which predicted the disappearance of snow!
    3. Seven day rain forecasts have an accuracy of less than 60% ie slightly more accurate than coin tossing!
    4.BOM blame climate change for their poor prediction rate! Can we have a moratorium on blaming “Climate Change”?
    5. The new models wont be that much more accurate!
    6. Forecasts are useless for harvesting decisions because of the “autumn predictability barrier” ie they cant predict beyond March/April until June!
    7. Computer Models are manually “tuned” to match historic temperature patterns as closely as possible but if that temperature data is inaccurate/has also been manually tuned, then the whole exercise is rather pointless!

  12. BOM have their latest data up:

    from their summary on temperature
    Overall, Australia’s annual mean temperature for 2010 was 22.00 °C, +0.19 °C above the 1961 to 1990 average of 21.81 °C. This ranks as the nation’s 31st-warmest year since standard records began in 1910. It has now been a record nine years since Australia experienced a below-average year and the past ten years (2001 to 2010) were the warmest decade on record for Australia.

    Temperatures were generally cooler than average in the interior of the continent where rainfall was particularly high. By contrast, the north and west were much warmer than normal. Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Coral Sea contributed to the warm temperatures in the Cape York Peninsula. Tasmania was also warmer than normal.

    Australia recorded its 8th warmest year on record for minimum temperatures (with an anomaly of +0.59 °C), while maximum temperatures were below normal with an anomaly of −0.21 °C. The tropics were particularly warm during the July to October period, with widespread areas in the Top End of the Northern Territory, the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Cape York Peninsula having their warmest on record mean temperatures. In marked contrast with 2009, days with extreme high temperatures were scarce. However 2010 saw regular, very high overnight minimum temperatures in the northern tropics during winter, including an Australian July record of 26.9 °C at Cape Don in the Northern Territory.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *