What is it about Tasmania and the ever-ready pipeline of Commonwealth taxpayers money?
Must be too many Fed. Pollies over there.
Just heard our PM on ABC TVNews24 talking about a second Bass St power cable and Fed. financing for Tassie Hydro’s pumped hydro boondoggle “Battery of the Nation“. Many of the Snowy 2.0 shortcomings will apply in Tassie.
This chart of Monthly AEMO wholesale price shows how Tas prices are weather dependent. And both Tassie and Snowy hydros have the brains to sell their power into PEAK TIMES – see OpenNem. So unless we are enjoying months of flooding rains we are unlikely to see cheap hydro power. This month now the worst of the January heat waves have passed – mainland States prices have retreated to ~$100 but Tas prices are way higher than other States. Prime Minister please take Note!! For larger chart
Hydro installed capacities in NSW, Vic and Tas are so small – hydro can only ever be a bit player on our Eastern Grid.
A bit idealistic to expect our PM and minion Ministers to pay any attention to data.
What I have found truly depressing and as immoveable as a 50m thick block of reinforced concrete is the delusion common to a seeming majority of the population that renewabubbles are cheaper than anything else (cleaner and safer, too) becuase wind and sun are “free”. The actual engineering, the actual results, are completely ignored.
No amount of power loss, either unexpected or “managed”, due to sudden, prolonged drops of wind or the obvious loss of solar every 16 hour cycle, has changed this perception. Bluntly, a majority of city people will put up with unreliability and high expense to feel virtuous. The city/country divide is very real and very bloody-minded.
I have felt uneasy about this possibility for over 20 years now. I’ve been labelled cynical many times (ho hum) but I’ve organised my family and self to hunker down through this wave of superstitious disenlightenment and survive as well as possible. The really big punch-in-the-face will be the loss of the ICE vehicles in regional and rural areas. It will be devastating.
Ian you could say so is gold. In my younger days you could get a license for a couple of dollars and then go on most properties to dig or pan for gold. With lots of effort you may get enough to pay for a shovel or the pan. With lots of money in exploration, drilling and analyses of samples, then spending lots more money on obtaining production license you get to spend huge money on establishing a mine which might give a return on the capital.
With solar and wind you get to spend money but the stupid government helps out with the capital and then even worse it subsidises the production so the crooks which pay off the government ministers and officials get some of money extracted from the public.
If there was proper competition in the supply of electricity the solar and wind would never have started or even now continue.
Now all February data is in at AEMO the full monthly averages are little changed from where they were on your chart on the 24th. Tas still highest at $134.79; Vic next $111.16; SA $110.73; NSW $89.22 and Qld $84.1.
Just saw this recent quoted number for Tassie Hydro Debt – $703Million – Sheesh
Hydro Tasmania probed at Government Business Enterprise hearings for 2018 6th December 2018
www.theadvocate.com.au/story/5797280/no-fear-of-new-energy-law-says-barnett/
Sorry but you have not found the half of it. In 2014-15 $1.6Bn of Hydro debt was transferred to TasNetworks (both orgs Govt owned) see this ABC article – Debt transfer from Hydro Tasmania to TasNetworks will not push up power bills, Treasurer says 29Jan2015 – OK so what is the TasNetworks debt now? – OK so what is the TasNetworks debt now? I just found a 2018-19 Corporate Plan of theirs looking ahead to 2023-24 and here is their Table showing debt is currently nearing $2Bn.
So total Tasmania Electricity Debt is ~$2.7Bn and rising. Near the end of the TasNetworks 2018-19 Corporate Plan they list various risks and do not include drought as a risk. One of my conclusions on the subject is that Tas AEMO wholesale prices are just manipulated by Hydro to suit their accountants.
Total electricity debt in Tasmania will blow out to over $5Bn with Battery of the Nation cost est $1.1Bn and Marinus Link cost $1.2Bn.
This is a commentary on my main chart 2013 to 2019
looking at AEMO monthly average wholesale prices per MWhr for the 5 States.
My timeline of comments.
Prices eased during 2013 – possibly the market was anticipating the coming Abbott Govt and the end of the CTax plus our market had an oversupply of generation as demand never fully recovered post the GFC.
Remember too Labor tweaked the RET scheme to increase subsidised investment in renewables often by the taxpayer orgs such as ARENA, so increasing wind and solar projects were in State project pipelines.
We had also been closing coal fired units for years. Starting 2011 the 1400MW Munmorah in NSW – 2012 Playford B 240MW in SA then 190MW at Collinsville in Qld plus 480MW at Swanbank in Qld was converted to gas. In 2014 189MW was closed at Morwell Vic then 1000MW at Wallerawang NSW plus 150MW Redbank NSW. In 2015 160MW closed at Anglesea Vic then in 2016 780MW at Northern/Playford in SA and in 2017 1600MW at Hazelwood Vic.
Back to my timeline – in Spring 2014 and through to Autumn 2015 there was a golden period when all States prices were under $50 except for 3 warm month Qld price spikes to +$100. Anybody know reason for those Qld price spikes?
IMHO (except for borders) the Abbott Govt did not hit the ground running in Sep 2013 – there was the Senate recount in WA that wasted months and the 2014 Budget was not covered in glory – from that time on it was clear that an unhelpful Senate made the Govt a lame duck despite the large majority in the Reps. With the CTax abolition Govt might have been fooled into thinking they had electricity prices/policy under control.
From Autumn 2015 a clear rise in all States prices began with SA usually leading the way but who in Govt. was watching electricity as moves were afoot to replace PM Abbott by Malcolm Turnbull.
From Spring 2015 Tas prices rose sharply as they were buying mainland power after running their dam levels low cashing in on the CTax selling power across Bass St.
Just before Christmas 2015 Basslink broke sending Tas prices to $250 and BL was not repaired untill mid 2016
In summer 2015-16 there was another Qld price spike to +$100 (reasons anybody?)
The 780MW of coal generation at Northern/Playford near Port Augusta was scheduled to close in May and probably triggered the rise in all mainland prices to continue into price spikes in mid-2016. The ending of SA coal generation caused an increased demand in SA for gas which forced gas prices higher – which seems like economics 101 in hindsight.
For a brief period in Spring 2016 Vic and Tas prices returned under $50 before late in the year and early 2017 all States prices were heading for $100 and beyond probably under pressure from the scheduled closing of 1600MW at Hazelwood Vic in March 2016. Qld NSW and SA prices all saw summer spikes above $150. Lower cool season demand brought all prices in the 70-$80 range in winter-spring 2017 then Vic and SA saw summer spikes near $150 as 2018 started. Both NSW and Qld prices stayed low over summer bottoming around 60-$65 as autumn started before rising again into winter and the entire price skein of mainland States rose to near $100 by late 2018. Remember that in late August power prices and changes to the NEG were issues contributing to the Liberals replacing Malcolm Turnbull as PM.
In winter and early spring 2018 Tasmania enjoyed good rain and they sold increased amounts of power to the mainland lowering Tas prices under $50 but by late 2018 that little cash cow came to an end and in 2019 Tas prices have been higher than most mainland States. Towards the end of 2018 and in 2019 we hear from the Govt about their “Big Stick” energy policy. So far all talk.
In summer 2019 all States except Qld saw price spikes and considering there are no external shocks such as major generation closures due till 2022 – March prices are very high. The AEMO predicted prices for 2019 are higher than 2018 for all mainland States – only for Tasmania is 2019 predicted lower than 2018.