My chart shows the damage caused to electricity wholesale prices by a few days of normal summer peak heat – which luckily were mainly on weekends and holidays.
I notice that Sydney gas prices right now at 9.5 are way over December at 7.4 and I trust the PM is speaking to gas company bosses. Vic gas market maybe never got the Turnbull phone call. I also notice that Vic coal generation is running at max ~4,400 to 4,600MW 24/7 these days. Machinery eventually breaks down. I see there were 50,000 homes blacked out across Vic yesterday and Vic Labor pollies are trying to say supply was not the problem. It seems obvious that with supply strained near the limit this would require more fiddle-faddling and jiggery pokery by grid authorities than if they had Hazelwood on line say and could have been ~1,500MW more relaxed about meeting the demand. They were assisted too by wind in SA picking up at peak demand time in Adelaide. AEMO electricity and NemWatch for a generation snapshot. Link to 5 charts of electricity price histories.
Just how “gamed”is the gas spot market?
I am sure I have read re in 2016 where if you are a large business and have contracted to buy so much gas and the prices rises – you can arrange to sell your contract to another large consumer. The context I recall was some gas fired generator in SA who could not be brought online to generate as they had sold their gas contract because it was a more profitable course of action for them than being faffed around as a generator. I think that was after Port Augusta coal fired shut around mid year which commenced the latest phase of the power price explosion.
Also there is no doubt the Prime Minister’s meeting with gas bosses last year calmed prices although there was backsliding in the last Quarter and he should have been on the phones again.
I think the Feds missed an opportunity to to buy/resume whatever AGL’s interest in the proposed gas import pipeline at Crib Point in Westernport. The Feds could then have neg Govt to Govt gas purchases by the tanker-load from the Gulf and inserted some gas more storage in Vic. I would not trust AGL as far as I could spit. Pity the Feds are so lame duck and useless.
Enron certainly demonstrated a game plan.
You would have to wonder whether any of the “Players”are covertly helping the Lock the Gaters to squeeze it even further…….