There were areas of useful rain in NSW Qld too in the last week of October.
48hrs of rain dot maps at the BoM
NSW today 2nd Nov 15 some rain still around on radar.
There were areas of useful rain in NSW Qld too in the last week of October.
48hrs of rain dot maps at the BoM
NSW today 2nd Nov 15 some rain still around on radar.
Warwick, I suppose there are many indications of high or low rainfall in parts of the country. It is said that when the SOI is continuously below -10 then we are in or close to an El Nino which causes reduced rain in Qld. However, there is also the affect of the PDO and IOD. Just looking at SOI, we have been in a period for many months with monthly values below -10 which should indicate low rainfall. However, looking at my rainfall figures (Brisbane area) I find that in the years 1995 to 1998 the rainfall was well below average (coinciding with low SOI which turned in May 1998 to become positive) In 1999 the rainfall was very much (by 1000 mm+) above average. Bob Tisdale at WUWT has ENSO comparisons with 1987/1988 for which the SOI figures were for sometime in the -10 but the rainfall in the prior years 1983 to 1988 was close to average. The drought period in Qld was 2000 to 2007 where my rainfall figures are well below average (-800mm in 2001, -650mm in 2002 & -600 in 2006), The SOI level tended to be consistently negative but no long period below -10.
Since 2008 we have had above average rain except last year which was 500mm below average and this year to date is right on average eg for October the 120 yr average at my place is 102.7 mm while the amount this year was 99.4 mm. The SOI has been more negative than -10 for many months but it appears to be at the point of turning. From my perspective the claims about a super El Nino are exaggerated.
It could be that sea surface temperatures are being manipulated. to show that ENSO is bad. BOM can not manipulate my rainfall figures.
Yes the correlation of El Nino with low rainfall is a long way from perfect, and there are obviously other factors.
What interests me about the current El Nino is what it is doing to global temperatures. I don’t mean the surface aggregates, which have now been fiddled so many times you don’t know where you are. But the two satellite series, UAH and RSS, have narrowed their differences to trivial amounts, and are clearly the best data we have got.
October shows strong warming in both series. But we have been in or near El Nino values on all measures – SOI, Pacific sea surface regions 3 and 4, and the multivariate El Nino Index – for a year or so now, yet we are still below temperatures reached in 1998 and even 2010.
Less than 10 years ago, the Fourth IPCC report predicted near-term warming of 0.2 degrees per decade, and even the latest IPCC report gave a central estimate of 0.17 degrees. That means underlying temperatures should be at least 0.3 degrees warmer than 18 years ago. So even if the current El Nino turns out a bit weaker than 1997-8, one would expect its peak temperatures to easily exceed the 1998 peak.
The UAH series is here: www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/. Assuming the latest, reduced IPCC warming estimates are true, the 13-month average should rise to at least 0.6 degrees on this chart, and that’s if the present El Nino peaks now. If it hangs on, and matches 1997-8, then the peak should be around 0.8. Anything under 0.5 will be tantamount to disproof of the whole IPCC line.
It maybe too early to make a call but comparing the actual pressures differences (Tahiti minus Darwin) from June to present it appears that there was a significant turn around from negative to positive on 1st November. There have been storms and rain in many parts of Queensland. It is hoped that there will be more rain to break the drought in parts where there has been little rain over the last two years (as indicated above last year at my place rain was below average -actually -520mm or 30%)
It is looking hopeful that the El Nino has finished. For eleven days now the 30d average pressure at Tahiti less the 30d average pressure at Darwin has been positive and trending to be more positive. The next two weeks should confirm the change.
In 1998 when the El Nino ended the SOI turned around very rapidly from negative to positive.
At present 22Nov the SOI appears to have turned around from large negative to positive for last three weeks. It appears the so called El Nino has ended. It certainly is not a super El Nino as in 1997-1998.
Agree cement – here is the URL for the SOI –
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values
www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
currently the 30 day SOI is up to -7.5
As of 26 Nov the 30 day SOI is up to -3.49
I see recent days show a run of 9 SOIs lower than -10, with one -47.5, so not sure if we’re through El Nino yet. Sea surface temperatures may be topping out though, let’s see.
Interesting to see the November satellite data, slightly down on October and still very low considering we have had a year or so of El Nino or near-El Nino conditions. As Kevin Trenberth used to say, where’s all the heat? It’s a travesty we can’t account for this…
Now Roy Spencer – no doubt following this thread assiduously! – has a post on temperatures and the current El Nino: www.drroyspencer.com/2015/12/2015-will-be-the-3rd-warmest-year-in-the-satellite-record/#comments
Roy is rightly cautious about prediction, though he points out that the second year of an “El Nino pair” is on average a quarter of a degree warmer than the first year. If 2016 beat 2015 by that margin, it would be a record warm year, just. But he is not making any bets.
Yeah but Roy, the last El Nino comparable to this one was 18 years ago and models say there is global warming of ~0.2 degrees per decade. So temperatures in 2016 should be miles above the previous record if those models are right. If the temperatures fail to get past 1998, that is a disaster for the global warming promoters.