Anthony Watts has the story that the latest IPCC Second Order Draft of AR5 (the next IPCC report), Working Group 1 (“The Scientific Basis”) acknowledges strong evidence for solar forcing beyond total solar irradiance (TSI)
This quote from AR5 – “The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link.”
The AR5 draft is being leaked here.
Maybe the IPCC might cotton on to the additional reality that our current very weak solar cycle 24 is not exactly portending warmer times.
Category Archives: IPCC
Another wild exaggeration from IPCC 1990 – global temperature should be about 0.6 degrees up on 1990
That is from their “Business As-Usual Best Estimate” – of course the real world result is less than half of that.
I see Jo Nova drawing attention to warmist claims that predictions of IPCC 1990 are coming true – reported uncritically of course by the ABC.
Clive Best dealt well with this issue last year.
We must not forget that policymakers were herded to the Rio conference in 1992 and fed a pack of lies.
IPCC 1990 also predicted sea level rise would be twice what it has turned out to be.
Another wild exaggeration from IPCC 1990 – sea level rise touted to be 6cm per decade
The claim of a 6cm per decade rise is from their 1990 Executive Summary.
Note on the graphic 2012_rel4: Global Mean Sea Level Time Series (seasonal signals removed) – from this IPCC compliant Org – the claimed rate from adjusted satellite data is only 3.1mm per year – HALF of IPCC 1990.
But there is more – checkout the new Jo Nova article – Are sea-levels rising? Nils-Axel Mörner documents a decided lack of rising seas. Nils-Axel Mörner says the unadjusted satellite data show negligible trend and in his new pdf paper SEA LEVEL IS NOT RISING – has this stunning graphic.
So the rate of sea level rise is just an artifact of IPCC compliant adjustments.
Hoo-haa at Doha – Kyoto commitments must expire end 2012
Thanks to Mike Haseler for his interpretation of what is emerging at the Doha UN Climate talks.
DOHA SO FAR
Just in case you haven’t been following Doha, as expected the talks are deadlocked and as expected the EU are trying to fabricate something to hide the fact that there is no real agreement.
Continue reading Hoo-haa at Doha – Kyoto commitments must expire end 2012
Oxfam congratulates Australian Govt on wasting our money
My eye was caught by this crawling little headline in the local rag.
“Australia pays ‘fair share’ of climate fund: Oxfam”
Read and enjoy this “tip-of-the-iceberg” evidence of how the GreenLabor Govt is busy scattering our hard earned shekels here there and everwhere.
Did somebody forget to invite the IPCC to COP18 ?
This heads-up from Mike Haseler in sunny Scotland. IPCC head honcho Dr Rajendra K Pachauri whining that – “For the first time in the 18 years of COP, the IPCC will not be attending, because we have not been invited,” he told Gulf Times in Doha. COP18 is to be held from November 26 to December 7.
This will be major sleep-loss event for me.
Is it my imagination or are events getting weirder ?
Maybe the invite is in the mail.
Antarctica cooling highlights how the IPCC lied to us in 1990
Dr Pat Michaels writing in Forbes last May drew attention to the fact that 33 years of NASA satellite temperature data demonstrates a cooling trend over far southern regions. For global lower troposphere temperature trend map.
Anthony Watts has recently blogged on this topic too.
I thought I would check what IPCC 1990 had to say about future temperature trends – they quoted three models which all showed both poles warming with their colour scale extending to 12 degrees C for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide – great use of “flaming colour scheme”.
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Full plate Figure 5.4 a,b & c, – full plate Figure 5.4 d,e & f.
Ref: CLIMATE CHANGE The IPCC Scientific Assessment, 1990 – 360 pages
IPCC Champion whines that – “Too many researchers spoil climate studies”
Enjoy the contorted nuances in this heap of warmista garbage in The Canberra Times quoting Kevin Trenberth.
Concise reminder of IPCC failings
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Australian Bureau of Meteorology plays God by altering Adelaide historic temperature data – Frostgate 2
Lance Pidgeon raises a fascinating issue in his comment on my Frostgate 1 thread where he points out a report in The (Adelaide) Advertiser for 4 July 1933 that the 3rd July 1933 was the “COLDEST MORNING THIS YEAR”.
It is interesting here to check what the various BoM versions record for this frost event.
This segment of spreadsheet shows the BoM standard minimum readings in Celsius – with their latest (March 2012) adjusted & perfected ACORN data alongside. We see that for the 3 July ACORN reads 1.7 – OK but note how the 30 June in ACORN now reads 1.6 – which rewrites Adelaide history as recorded by the Advertiser that the 3 July was “COLDEST MORNING THIS YEAR”. The red A marks the day of The Advertiser article we are referring to – and the red NR marks the new “COLDEST MORNING THIS YEAR”.
How does the BoM possibly know now in 2012 that the 30 June 1933 was a colder morning at West Terrace Adelaide than 3 July ? Denying the evidence of the BoMs own standard temperature data read by expert observers at its South Australian Regional Office. This playing God with our temperature history can not be justified.
And while we are looking at the Differences Raw minus ACORN – how on earth can the BoM justify these constantly varying adjustments ?
How do they know that on the 6th July the 10.2 recorded was EXACTLY correct for all time ? While all the other morning readings from 20th June to 10th July were faulty by greatly varying amounts.