Watching Senate Estimates today swamped with Dorothy Dixers to the BoM it seems obvious somebody has cooked up a GreenLeft song sheet that we will hear more about in weeks months ahead. An example – Could a Cape Town happen here? The Australian cities running out of water 17Feb18
Highest ever Feb flows of 150GL – data from 1977. Highest annual flow since 2000 – 240.8GL.
All of which wastes to the sea. In recent summer months there has been significant rainfall in SW WA – Jan 2016 heaviest in the SW – I blogged on that – Jan 2017 – Then Feb 2017 where I blogged again – and the ABC reported – Now we have Jan 2018 where most Perth dam catchments saw over 100mm on the 16th. I have not seen where Water Corporation recorded any dam inflows or increased levels from the above rain.
Could anybody make this up? – the $Bn’s WA Govt organization at the heart of the +decade long slogan “our drying climate” is too careless to measure natures rainfall falling free from the sky. Starting from their Rainfall at Individual Dams www page.
Churchmans Brook Dam recorded 0 rain for June – simply not credible nearby BoM Araluen 9000 recorded 70.8 over 4 days.
Mundaring Dam recorded 0 rain for January – simply not credible – note BoM Mundaring 9030 just to north recorded 57.6 for Jan 2017 and to the south BoM Bickley 9240 recorded 48.4.
South Dandalup Dam recorded 0 rain for June – simply not credible – note the BoM Huntly 9936 to the north recorded 124.8 for Jun 2017 and to the south BoM Dwellingup 9538 recorded 103.8.
Victoria Dam recorded 0 rain for June – simply not credible – just to the west the BoM Gosnells City 9106 recorded 54.8 on the 22nd.
Victoria Dam recorded 0.6 rain for October – simply not credible – the BoM Gosnells City 9106 recorded 33.7 over at least 9 days.
I think highly unreliable and not to be trusted would be the only way to describe the rain measuring efforts of the Western Australian Govt. Water Corporation. In recent years I have been checking their rain data too. Noticed shortcomings 2Aug16 – Called for an audit 28Aug16 – Got unhelpful reply from Minister 14Oct16 – Commented on their famous 2 rain gauges 27Oct16 – Did a wrap of 2016 rain 8Jan17
This ABC report on an AFL match at Drummoyne Fri evening 9 Feb mentions it was interrupted by a “huge” storm with heavy rain.
Odd that a storm such as reported slips through the Sydney rain gauge network.
If anybody has other rain data or observations please pass on.
Imagine what rain must be missed out in the wide brown land.
Here is the Terrey Hills radar ex Oscilmet I chose the loop from 3pm to 8pm 9Feb18 – the times on the loop are in UTC – the little rain centres move rapidly. The one that hit Drummoyne is fairly clear. I think they only archive for 2 weeks.
This ABC article trying to justify seawater desalination sums up how so much damage has been done to Australian water policy over two decades. From the very first sentence “Perth’s desalination plant has been a lifesaver..”. What utter rubbish –
1 – Perth dam catchments bush could have been managed to release more dam inflows –
2 – The Gnangara Pines should have been immediately cut to increase aquifer recharge.
3 – The SW Yarragadee deep aquifer could have easily made up any Perth shortfall and any drawdown would hardly be noticed as SW WA aquifers waste water to the sea constantly.
4 – There are also large quantities ~1,000GL of weakly saline river water wasting to the sea every year in SW WA and a small fraction could be more cheaply desalinated than seawater.
5 – The Agritech Wellington Dam project should have been the starting point for 4.
Perth was never running out of water – water has been running out of Perth.
Back to the ABC article – so these top climate scientists are saying that GCM’s are proving that increasing carbon dioxide driven climate change is causing the decline in SW WA rain. OK say we grant them that. Then how do we/they explain the increase in rain at various periods in the history of various Australian States and regions? Did CO2 do that too? The 14 BoM charts show that Australian rain has increased over a century and that most States and regions enjoy a wetter climate now than they did before 1950. How can anybody cherry pick the SW WA declining rain and say – Ah, that must be caused by IPCC Climate Change? I never hear any climate scientist say “the increase in rain from 1970 in many Australian regions must be caused by IPCC CO2 driven climate change”. I think a more rational view of Australian rainfall history would recognise – most of Australia is most often more dry than we humans would like. The 14 charts show with clarity that rainfall varies on decadal and sub decadal scales, often appearing to be cyclic, in different ways at different times in various regions for reasons we know little about – but we can opine and theorise.
Just saw this on WaterCorporation www. click on Sources then Future
Last month I updated my Perth dams catchment rainfall and it is plain that Perth catchments rain is similar to levels of 40 odd years ago (May to Oct av now ~850mm). Will add more later on the 20+ years history of the WA Govt. avoidance of valuable rainwater that falls free from the sky. Every May to Oct. on average 2,975GL of rain falls over Perth dam catchments and if catchment bush was managed so that only 5% of that water was harvested as dam inflows that would mean 148GL PA which is ~52% of Greater Perth annual consumption – ~ a $Bill worth of water.
Braidwood farmers struggle with drought as dams dry up – Checking drought areas at these BoM maps you can make a map for various periods out to 4 years and there is very little drought around NSW over 1, 2, 3 or 4 years. The 9 months map shows Braidwood is either near or inside a drought area to the east and north. BoM data from 1888 shows 13 years have been dryer than 2017 and the years 2010 to 2016 have been very consistent with near average rain. Large chart.
Queensland Tourism Industry Council asks Bureau of Meteorology for ‘sunnier disposition’ – I know the feeling – rain is mentioned almost every day in Canberra forecasts but rain is seldom seen. But there might be a spit somewhere in the district. Readers might have examples and I will pony up data from Canberra. I kept the 7 days of Canberra forecasts offline on the 5th and checking against the Airport 3 forecasts were OK while 4 failed.
Cloud seeding to enhance rainfall has had a chequered career in Australia. Starting here with all the surplus aircraft and crews after WWII many missions were flown over various catchments. I get an impression there was a turf war between the BoM and CSIRO and the statistics of rainfall make cloud seeding results often hard to assess and there is always some NIMBY whining that it was too wet or too dry. I mentioned CS in a blog 2 years ago see links and maps there. I have been aware that Snowy Hydro has carried out CS trials against Greens opposition and checked their www pages. Seems the CS trials are still going so I grabbed the 2016 report. Nothing about actual rain results so I checked the NSW rain anomalies for max term of 4 years. Presto the best anomaly in NSW is where do you think?
Maybe we should be getting on with extending CS into other alpine areas where we can value add the Murray River and other Vic & NSW dam catchments. BTW the previous 4 year period ending Dec 2013 had a good result too.
My Catchment Rain Index updated. Large vers.
Plus my chart of catchment efficiency 1980-2017 – large vers.
And BTW calcs show from 2001-2017 1646GL of water could have been saved if catchments had been managed so that efficiency could have been maintained at ~5.6%. That = 96.8GL PA wasted. A whisker more than inflows this year. What would that waste be worth? A lazy $Bn ?