We have all seen or heard on the media that “sweaty September” has been our warmest month ever – see “Australia in September 2013” from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)
I wrote to William Kininmonth ex BoM Senior Meteorologist(link to bio notes) – and asked if variations in the jet stream were affecting Australian climate.
He replied drawing my attention to this BoM map of September wind anomalies.
BOM archives monthly mean and anomaly charts at 850, 500 and 200hP.
September had an anomalous high sitting over SE Australia drawing in warm
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temperature anomaly respectively. It would seem that the driver for the
temperature anomaly was the blocking situation, not global warming.
Mr Kininmonth has said he will answer questions here – and I wanted to add that his bio notes above came from the recent book he co-authored – Taxing Air
Big decline in sun spot numbers for September 2013
Adds to likelihood that the solar max for cycle 24 has passed.
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SWO data –
RI data –
BoM 3 month Australian climate prediction Outlooks July to September 2013 – mostly exactly wrong again
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) carries on with the seemingly impossible task of every month predicting the odds of exceeding median temperatures, both day and night, plus the odds of exceeding median rainfall for the next three months. Results for the temperature Outlooks July to September have been as bad as I can recall. Actual temperatures turned out often to be the reverse of what was forecast.
It is high time the Federal Govt told the BoM to cease this waste of taxpayers money publishing the Outlooks, wasting taxpayers money for over a decade. Set the staff involved to more productive work for Australia or fire them – simple.
Prediction of the odds of exceeding median maximum (day-time) temperatures –
Actual weather result in anomalies – hot where it should have been cool centrally and nearer average around the coast and Tasmania where it should have been very hot.
Prediction of the odds of exceeding median minimum (night-time) temperatures –
Actual weather result in anomalies – hot where it should have been cool or average centrally and nearer average around the coast, even cool anomalies in the north, then Tasmania where it was above average but should have been hotter.
Temperature Outlooks here – make maps of recent actual temperatures here
You can check rainfall Outlook and actual rainfall for yourself.
Comparing new IPCC global map of 1901-2012 temperature trends – with GISS maps for same period
A reader has drawn my attention to this map from page 27/36 IPCC WGI AR5 SPM-1 27 Sep 2013 – I am not sure what dataset is used (probably HadCRUT) – have not found the Technical Summary Supplementary Material yet. Have to say I was not aware such a large area of South America was warming as shown.
Interesting to compare with the GISS maps for the same period – fascinating how the different SST groups treat the Pacific Ocean – but the science is settled of course. This first map uses SST from the GISS combination of Hadley & Reynolds.
The second GISS map uses the NOAA ERSST data.
Error reporting September rain in Perth
This Yahoo news item 23 Sep 2013 – Strong winds bring down trees and powerlines in Perth and South West – says at the end – [The Bureau of Meteorology says the front will hit early this evening and last most of the night.
The Perth metropolitan area has recorded its wettest September for more than 90 years.
So far this month Perth has recorded 129 millimetres of rain – making it the wettest September since 1923.]
There is a major error in those last two sentences and I find it amazing that such a simple issue as rainfall can get so garbled – particularly in the Perth media. Many 10 year old children with a www connection and a copy of Excel could provide Yahoo with relevant basic rainfall statistics.
Here is a list of the wettest Septembers for Perth – both Perth Metro (1993-current) and Perth Regional Office (1876-1992). Chris Gillham has information about BoM Perth weather stations.
The ridiculous statements on Yahoo completely ignore the fact that in September 1973 Perth had 146mm rain – so that is the first “record” hurdle that 2013 has to jump.
Then in 1971 September saw 183.8mm rain and it will take truly exceptional rain for the rest of this month to top that.
So where does Yahoo get their 90 years from ??
I notice that on 19 Sep PerthNow had a factual article – Perth on track for wettest September in 40 years.
So it is puzzling that a few days later Yahoo come up with their nonsense.
It is also worth noting that in my reading for this article I never saw Perth Hills rain referred to – yet that has such economic importance for Perth water supply. Of course Perth Hills rain is much higher than Perth rain. Somebody has the Perth media well trained.
Update 39 years of Perth dam catchment rain index 1975-2013
Will update the chart from time to time till end October. Blue line is a 5 year average – the average of all 39 years is 909mm.
There are several links to earlier relevant information in this May 2013 article – Ongoing decline in efficiency of Perth Dam catchments – reply from WA Minister
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2002 article from The West Australian discussing catchment management
Geodynamics Ltd – persistent Australian geothermal energy explorer – a quick history
In view of Professor Tim Flannery’s services being no longer required by the new Federal Govt – I was curious to have a look at the history of Geodynamics Ltd GDY – a green energy company that the good Prof was invested in.
GDY floated in late 2002 with a market capitalisation of under $20 million – the share price reached a peak of about $2.10 in late 2007 when there were 190 million shares issued – making for a peak market capitalisation of ~$400 million. It has been downhill from there and these days with shares at 10c the market capitalisation has melted away today to ~$42 million.
GDY has raised $220 million from shareholders over the 11 years – and also $107 million in Govt grants.
This year GDY has commissioned a demonstration 1MW generating plant near Innamincka. I see last month they told the ASX of an impairment of $88.8 million in their books re Cooper Basin assets.
Clearly it is a tough game at the cutting edge of developing a new “clean green energy source” at a depth of +3km under the Cooper Basin.
To see extracts of headlines that caught my eye – from lists of GDY ASX announcements over the 11 years. Continue reading Geodynamics Ltd – persistent Australian geothermal energy explorer – a quick history
BoM claims Australia has had warmest 12 month period – not supported by some NASA and NOAA temperature data September 2012 to August 2013
Ken Stewart and Jo Nova have reported on the BoM claim. BoM mean T data for the 12 months September 2012 to August 2013 was the warmest on record for their dataset. You can not make a 12 month average of your choice – I downloaded all monthly anomaly timeseries and built a full timeseries of monthly anomalies from 1910-2013.
The only “international” surface temperature data I can find updated through August is GHCN CAMS from KNMI ClimateExplorer. Then we also have the NASA lower troposphere satellite data from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) commented on by Ken and Jo. It is clear from the graphic that the BoM claim is not robust.
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Over the decades the 12 month average “Australian mean temperature” oscillates in a cyclic fashion between warm and cool anomalies. The BoM opportunistically feeds media headlines when times are warm but is silent on the issue when times are cool.
Wall Street Journal article – A Reprieve From Climate Doom – no reason not to disband the useless and harmful IPCC
A Reprieve From Climate Doom – forthcoming report points lowers estimates on global warming – Sept 13, 2013 in the Wall Street Journal by Matt Ridley
Climate sceptics should stand firm and not let the IPCC get away with weasel words back-peddling from years of failed predictions and poor science. Multi-Billions of dollars worth of harm has been and is being done to western economies in the guise of saving the planet.
Australia should cease all cooperation with the IPCC and no Govt funded scientist or organization should participate.
We should make our views known to our Federal parliamentariams.
Ex Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard has heard of Climategate
Over at Catallaxy they had the fortitude to read through Julia Gillard’s long article justifying her term in office. – Julia Gillard writes on power, purpose and Labor’s future
[For most Australians the last long drought was perceived to be the result of climate change, and when the drought broke their concerns about climate change receded. The circus in Copenhagen and “climategate” fed scepticism. Then, at the worst time, the structure of the Australian electricity market delivered huge rises to the electricity bills of families. While cost of living pressures were easing in other parts of the family budget, the pain of these big lumpy bills was acute and remembered.]
I think Julia Gillard is wrong when she says “For most Australians the last long drought was perceived to be the result of climate change,…”
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Most Australians were also well aware that Govt funded scientists who should have known better – were linking the drought to “IPCC climate change” – and these views linking the “worst ever drought” to IPCC AGW were given prominence across much of our media.
So when the drought broke in 2010 the “lack of clothing” on these royal scientific opportunists was obvious to many.
“The circus in Copenhagen and “climategate”….” very likely fed into the rise of scepticism in Australia.