Readers have sent in data about this issue trying to get a feel for how global temperatures might cool as 2010 unfolds. The salient points for me are; [1] 1997-98 was an altogether greater El Nino event than 2009-10. [2] The SOI went negative early in 1997 and stayed negative until April 98. [3] This … Continue reading Comparing 2010 temperature trends with 1998 as we come out of an El Nino
Seeing this headline “Perth faces dry winter” – made me check BoM 3 month Outlook rainfall predictions again. They are as hopeless as ever – for month after month from November 2009 – the BoM has failed to predict the dominant wet over most of Australia. Starting with the Outlook for summer (Dec-Feb) – the … Continue reading BoM rain predictions wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong again
This Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) prediction for summer made on 24 November 2009 has turned out to be so exactly wrong in several aspects. You can see in the BoM Outlook archive It is not only the 24 November prediction that is so wrong – check out their maps of predicted rain percentages published on … Continue reading Huge BoM rain and temperature prediction failures
This news should get the left wing chatterers enraged – who are currently pushing with great vigour for the Labor Govts ETS (Emission Trading Scheme) to be passed by the Senate. This news will be heartening to those opposition senators wary of signing Australia on to the wrist slashing expense of the Wong/Rudd ETS when … Continue reading Australian Defence Dept. says, “climate change science is too doubtful”.
The large climate groups including NOAA in the USA, are predicting an El Nino event in 2009. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said on 8 July “Leading climate models indicate that warming of the Pacific will continue for the next few seasons, with very little chance of the current development stalling or reversing.” It … Continue reading 2009 SOI so far refuses tango with El Nino
Just taking a quick look at the latest January to March rainfall and temperature three month Outlooks from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). I have linked to the originals for rainfall and temperature. Note these forecast maps were issued on 17 Dec 08. I have made the actual rain and temperature anomaly maps at … Continue reading Why are BoM 3 month forecast models so pathetically WRONG
THESE days, it can be hard to imagine how Melbourne ever earned a reputation as the gloomy, rain-filled capital of the south. But, growing up in the 1970s, my memories are full of muddy ovals, local creeks in flood and catching tadpoles in puddles that lasted for months on end. How things have changed.Since 1996, … Continue reading “Our hot, dry future”?
On 7 May the BoM’s Brad Murphy was quoted on ABC news item headlined, ‘No hope’ of drought-breaking rains for Qld”. Weather forecasters say hopes of drought-breaking rain in Queensland are over, because the La Nina pattern has petered out. Forecasters say the recent La Nina caused the flooding in Queensland last summer but ended … Continue reading Early May BoM prediction for Queensland dry shot to pieces quickly in June
We are talking here about the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) “National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook”. The BoM produces these predictive maps every month looking ahead for the next three months. I have for some years been critical that these Outlook maps are too often grossly wrong when compared to the rain anomaly maps National Seasonal … Continue reading BoM rain predictions “totally useless”
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