Seeing this headline “Perth faces dry winter” – made me check BoM 3 month Outlook rainfall predictions again. They are as hopeless as ever – for month after month from November 2009 – the BoM has failed to predict the dominant wet over most of Australia.
Starting with the Outlook for summer (Dec-Feb) – the links below let you compare
the BoM prediction with real world rainfall. I am simply looking for the BoM to correctly predict the broad shape of the rain decile patterns – but I do not see that they are close to doing that over the past six months. If a private business was wrong this often – they would soon go broke.
Dec-Feb actual rain deciles – the Sth Aust wet never happened – central Aust was not average it was WET. The predicted N Qld dry never happened, it was in fact wetter than average. The very dry WA coast was not predicted. A few points for the tiny dry area on Cape York. You get the picture – I will leave it for readers to work through the links for themselves. Check you own locality – I would appreciate hearing how you rate the BoM there. For my region ACT, the BoM predicted below average rain every Outlook but the actual rain was greater in each of the 4 cases. Of course the BoM puts out temperature Outlooks too, maybe somebody can check how they have performed for the 4 Outlooks since November 2009.
And the media still report these BoM press releases as if they mean something ?
IMHO the BoM should be disbanded and a weather forecast section salvaged out of it. Failures like I have demonstrated over years now are signs of a dysfunctional and unscientific org past its use by date.